2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover Predictions and Pick

| April 28, 2022 10:58 am PDT

It’s always tough to predict the outcome at Talladega, so I’m not worried about a tough week. Ryan Blaney led 23 laps, but Kevin Harvick was my only pick to finish top 10. We should have more success at Dover.

The 1.0-mile oval will host its only race of 2022. Last season, Hendrick Motorsports had a historic 1-2-3-4 finish at the track. There’s a strong chance you’ll see those drivers in my top picks and DFS lineup.

Who else makes the cut? Let’s start with my top picks for the 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400.

Kyle Larson (+550)

Don’t look now, but Kyle Larson has three top-five finishes in his last four races. He has never been a great superspeedway racer, but he led 32 laps at Talladega, finishing fourth. This week, he is a big favorite to take the checkered flag at Dover.

It didn’t take long for Larson to solve Dover. He finished top 10 in four of his first five starts. He led 100+ laps in both 2017 races but settled for a pair of top-five finishes. Larson’s last three Dover races show why he’s the favorite.

  Finishing Position Laps Led (of 400)
2019 3rd 0
2019 1st 154
2021 2nd 263

Larson took control in the final stage to win the 2019 Fall race at Dover. He was in a position to win his second consecutive Dover race last season. Larson had the dominant car but lost the lead on pit road.

He had a slow start to the 2022 season, but we’re starting to see him recapture his 2021 success. Part of that success was a dominant performance at Dover. It wouldn’t surprise me if he did it again. Only this time, he’ll have to finish one spot better.

Chase Elliott (+800)

Chase Elliott only has one top-five finish in 10 races, yet he leads the Cup Series standings. Elliott has been consistent, with only one finish outside the top 15. Everyone is waiting for Elliott to score his first oval victory since 2020. It could very well come at Dover.

He had an issue in the Fall 2019 and 2020 races. If you disclude those races, here are his Dover numbers.

  • 9 starts
  • 1 win
  • 8 top-five finishes
  • 8 top 10 finishes
  • 321 laps led
  • 3.0 average finish

Elliott used pit strategy to win the Fall 2018 race at Dover. However, he led 100+ laps in two other Dover races. He was in position to score his first career win in the Fall 2017 race but lost the lead with two laps to go.

It’s tough to pass at Dover, so track position is key. Elliott drove from the back last season to score a third-place finish. Are you starting to see why I like his chances?

He is on the verge of capturing his first victory of 2022. Dover is one of his best tracks, and he should be near the front on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick (+1600)

The best online NASCAR betting sites gave us a gift with Kevin Harvick at (+1600). Harvick’s 2022 season has been a bit underwhelming, but he hasn’t been terrible. The consistency is there, but he needs to take the next step.

He has three finishes of seventh or better in 2022, so the speed is there. He has three career victories at Dover, but let’s focus on his last seven starts.

  • 2 wins
  • 5 top-five finishes
  • 7 top 10 finishes
  • 711 laps led
  • 3.7 average finish

Harvick led 200+ laps in three of those seven races. A late pit road penalty in the Fall 2018 race ended his chances of a victory.

It’s not easy to use Harvick’s past numbers because he’s not running as strong as previous years. Still, a sixth-place finish in last year’s race gives me confidence. Stewart-Haas Racing as a whole has looked much better in 2022.

I’m not ruling out Harvick scoring his first victory of 2022. I’d feel much better if he has a good qualifying effort because it’s hard to pass at Dover. I love the value he presents to win at Dover.

Daniel Suarez (+5000) 

Trackhouse Racing has received much attention in 2022 for Ross Chastain’s success. Chastain has a pair of victories, but we can’t forget about Daniel Suarez.

Suarez has led 13+ laps in four of his last six races. He is on the wrong side of the playoff cutline, but one win can change his whole season. There’s a decent chance that victory comes at Dover.

In 2020, Suarez drove for Gaunt Brothers. Their cars are much slower than most, so it’s not fair to show his Dover numbers. Instead, let’s check out his Dover numbers without the 2020 races.

  • 7 starts
  • 1 top-five finish
  • 5 top 10 finishes
  • 22 laps led
  • 8.7 average finish

Even if you include his 2020 numbers, his average finish makes Dover his best track. And it’s not only the Cup Series. Suarez has seven top 10 finishes in eight starts at Dover in the Xfinity Series and Truck Series.

On that note, check out my top picks for Xfinity Series racing at Dover.

The Next-Gen car has brought parity to the Cup Series. It’s no longer surprising to see someone like Suarez run near the front. He is the perfect longshot for Dover.

2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 DFS Picks and Lineup 

Last week’s DFS lineup didn’t produce much, as Erik Jones was my only pick in contention. Let’s start with the top of my DFS lineup for Dover.

Top DFS Picks for the DuraMAX Drydene 400

  • William Byron ($11,000)
  • Alex Bowman ($10,100)
  • Ross Chastain ($8,600)

William Byron led a race-high 38 laps at Talladega but dropped back towards the end. Byron only had one top 10 finish in his first five starts at Dover but has finished fourth in his last two starts.

Hendrick Motorsports dominated this race last season. Byron is the only Hendrick Motorsports driver with multiple wins this season, so he should have a strong performance.

Last season, a late pit stop helped Alex Bowman snag the lead at Dover. He led the final 97 laps to score the victory. This wasn’t his first great finish at the track.

  • 2019: 2nd
  • 2019: 3rd
  • 2020: 5th
  • 2021: 1st

Bowman has been much more consistent in 2022. He should contend for another top-five finish at Dover.

It seems like everything has gone right for Ross Chastain in 2022. He picked up his second victory of 2022 after Erik Jones and Kyle Larson cleared the way on the final lap. The finish also gave Chastain a series-leading sixth top-five finish.

Chastain only has one start in a competitive Cup Series car at Dover. He finished 15th in last year’s race but don’t hold that against him. His 2022 success should lead to a great finish.

2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400 Full DFS Lineup

  • William Byron ($11,000)
  • Alex Bowman ($10,100)
  • Ross Chastain ($8,600)
  • Austin Dillon ($7,600)
  • Aric Almirola ($6,600)
  • Cole Custer ($6,100)

Austin Dillon is having a very underrated season. He has four top 10 finishes in his last five races, including a second-place finish at Talladega.

Dillon has been just okay at Dover, with three top 10 finishes in 16 starts. He has finished top 15 in his last three starts, but his 2022 success gives me confidence. He should have another solid performance.

It’s a bit surprising to see Aric Almirola have a low price in DFS. Almirola has tailed off since starting the season with three top 10 finishes, but he’s still fast enough to score a good finish.

Check out his Dover numbers with Stewart-Haas Racing.

  • 8 starts
  • 1 top ten finish
  • 86 laps led
  • 14.8 average finish

A crash in last year’s race brings his average finish down. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finished top-five.

Cole Custer is having another rough season, but Dover has been his best track in the Cup Series. Custer has finished 11th, 10th, and 10th in three career starts. He also had success in the Xfinity Series, scoring a victory and four top-five finishes in six starts.

Custer should be able to score another top 15 finish. He desperately needs a good finish.

Who Will Win the 2022 DuraMAX Drydene 400?

My Pick: Kyle Larson (+550)Bet on NASCAR at Bovada

Hendrick Motorsports had their way at Dover in 2021. I expect the same in 2022, with Kyle Larson scoring his second victory of the season.

Larson should have multiple wins at Dover. A late caution kept him from winning the 2017 Spring race. A slow pit stop lost him the race last season. His Dover numbers give me confidence in Larson scoring his second victory of 2022.

Fans can tune into the DuraMAX Drydene 400 on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1. Feel free to visit our motorsports picks page for NASCAR and Formula 1 content.

Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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