2022 Ally 400 at Nashville NASCAR Predictions and Pick

| June 23, 2022 6:15 am PDT

The NASCAR Cup Series is back in action following their only off week of the season. Two weeks ago, Daniel Suarez scored his first career Cup Series victory at Sonoma. It was a rough day for my top picks, but it was great to see a fan favorite win his first race.

Nashville Superspeedway will host the Cup Series for the second straight year. Kyle Larson dominated Nashville’s inaugural Cup Series race, but we should see a more competitive race in 2022.

Let’s check out my Ally 400 predictions.

Chase Elliott (+850)

Chase Elliott looked like the driver to beat at Sonoma. He led 26 laps and was on his way to being the leader for the final stage. Unfortunately, a pit road penalty put him in a big hole. He recovered to finish eighth, but it could’ve been much better.

It’s tough to value Elliott’s performance at Nashville. He won Stage 1 before finishing 13th, but a loose lug nut penalty led to NASCAR disqualifying him. NASCAR took away the playoff point and awarded him a last-place finish.

Aside from Nashville, the best way to make your Ally 400 picks is to use data from this year’s Dover race. Check out Elliott’s numbers in that race.

  • Stage 1 Finish: 2nd
  • Stage 2 Finish: 10th
  • Race Finish: 1st
  • Laps Led: 73 of 400

He fell back in Stage 2 but recovered to lead the final 53 laps en route to his first victory of the season. That victory is a big reason the latest 2022 Cup Series odds have him as the co-favorite.

Elliott would love to earn redemption after last year’s Nashville disqualification. My NASCAR predictions believe in a bounce-back performance as he contends for the win.

Ross Chastain (+850)

Ross Chastain’s teammate, Daniel Suarez, scored the victory at Sonoma. I expected Chastain to contend for the win, but he had a solid seventh-place finish. He didn’t lead a lap, but it marked his fifth top 10 finish in his last seven races.

Last season, Chastain would’ve been a sleeper in my NASCAR picks. However, the move to Trackhouse Racing has unlocked his potential.

Last year’s Nashville race and this year’s race at Dover are the best comparisons for Nashville. Check out his finish in both races.

  • Nashville: 2nd
  • Dover: 3rd

It doesn’t take a NASCAR fan to know those are good performances. That’s the driving force behind him being a top contender in my Ally 400 predictions.

Chastain didn’t have the second-best car at Nashville, but pit strategy led to him charging through the field. We can’t say the same for Dover, as he led 86 laps. He lost the lead on the final restart.

It has been amazing to watch someone like Chastain compete for the championship. He is on Chase Elliott’s heels for the regular-season title. The Ally 400 odds expect a competitive battle between the two. Who will come out on top?

Denny Hamlin (+1000)

Denny Hamlin’s rough season continued with a 31st-place finish at Sonoma. It’s a good thing Hamlin has a pair of wins because he wouldn’t make the playoffs on points.

Most of Hamlin’s bad finishes stem from bad luck. He has led 30+ laps three times, but they led to three finishes outside the top 20. That might have some worried about Hamlin in your Ally 400 picks, but I have confidence.

He wasn’t a contender in last year’s race at Nashville, but he may have had the best car at Dover. Hamlin won Stage 1, but a pit road issue sent him to the back.

Hamlin drove back to the top-five in Stage 2 but couldn’t avoid a lap car and crashed. He remained in the race but didn’t compete for the win.

That performance is why my Ally 400 picks have Hamlin among the top contenders. I believe he would’ve won at Dover without the crash. It’s tough to pass at the track, but he went from 29th to 4th in 120 laps.

I’ll have my eye on Hamlin for Sunday’s race. It wouldn’t surprise me if his team exhibited the same speed as Dover.

Aric Almirola (+4000)

Last season was a disaster for Aric Almirola. He made the playoffs after a surprise victory at New Hampshire, but it was an overall rough season. We’re seeing a much more consistent season as he sits 11th in the standings.

Almirola is my favorite sleeper for the Ally 400. Flat tracks have always been his specialty, including a fifth-place finish at Gateway. Almirola makes my NASCAR betting picks because of his performance in last year’s Nashville race.

  • Starting Position: 1st
  • Finishing Position: 4th
  • Average Running Position: 6th
  • Laps Led: 11 of 300
  • Driver Rating: 116.7 (2nd)

There was no one competing with Kyle Larson. Almirola may not have finished second, but his driver rating shows he was the best car aside from Larson. He and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. tied with the second-best average running position.

That came amidst a terrible season for Almirola. Theoretically, we should see a better performance in this year’s race.

I’m not sure he’ll have the second-best car, but I wouldn’t count him out. His Ally 400 betting odds present too much value not to have in my top picks. Will your NASCAR predictions for Nashville include Almirola?

2022 Ally 400 Race Props

There wasn’t much to like about my race props for Sonoma. I’m targeting finishing position and winning car number for my Ally 400 prop bets. Let’s see if a bounce-back effort is in order.

Kyle Busch to Finish Top 3 (+230)

Kyle Busch had a rough performance at Sonoma, ending a streak of three straight top-three finishes. I believe he could start another streak with a strong performance at Nashville.

Busch had a decent 11th-place finish at Nashville but had one of the best cars at Dover. He led a race-high 103 laps before heading to pit road for his final stop. A caution during the cycle of green-flag pit stops ruined his chances of victory.

He only has one victory this season, but it could easily be four or five. My NASCAR picks recognize that, as Busch should be a top contender at Nashville.

It’ll be interesting to see how he improves from last year’s Nashville performance. He finished top-five in the first two stages, but his car fell off a cliff early in Stage 3. Busch recovered to salvage a decent finish.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to Finish Top 10 (+175)

Two months ago, you couldn’t have paid me to include Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in my NASCAR betting picks. He finished outside the top 10 in nine of his first ten races. However, he turned the corner with a runner-up finish at Dover.

That began a surprising stretch of four straight top 10 finishes. That streak ended at Gateway, but last year’s Nashville performance gives me confidence in another top 10 finish.

Again, no one was competing with Kyle Larson. However, the total speed ranking shows Stenhouse had the second-fastest car. I wouldn’t have valued that early in the season, but he has shown the ability to compete for a top 10 finish.

His impressive stretch began with a second-place finish at Dover. That Dover performance should carry over to Nashville. That should lead to Stenhouse scoring his fifth top 10 finish in his last seven races.

Winning Car Number: Odd (-105)

If you don’t like my expert Ally 400 picks, could I interest you in an odd number car winning? It’s not the most common prop bet, but the odds align for the Ally 400.

You have to factor in value when making betting picks. Without the odds, these would be my top five picks for the Ally 400.

  • Ross Chastain
  • Kyle Larson
  • Chase Elliott
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Kyle Busch

I have a strong feeling the race-winner will come from that group. Kyle Busch is the only driver in that group that drives an even number car. We haven’t discussed Kyle Larson, but he led 264 of 300 laps en route to a victory in last year’s race.

You can also throw Martin Truex Jr. and Daniel Suarez in the group of contenders with an odd number car. Which of these drivers will visit victory lane?

Who Will Win the 2022 Ally 400?

My Pick: Ross Chastain (+850)Bet on NASCAR at Bovada

My Ally 400 predictions have Ross Chastain scoring his third victory of the season. Chastain has been one of the drivers to beat this season as he sits second in the standings.

He was strong in last year’s Nashville race and nearly won at Dover. Chastain had led 25+ laps in six races in 2022. He should add to that mark as he scores his third victory of 2022.

NASCAR Cup Series coverage will shift from FOX to NBC/USA. The Ally 400 is Sunday at 5 p.m. ET on NBC. Please visit the top NASCAR betting sites to wager on the race.

Nicholas Sterling
Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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