2022 All-Star Race at Texas NASCAR Predictions and Pick

| May 19, 2022 6:12 am PDT

The NASCAR Cup Series will have its annual All-Star Race this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. This will be the second straight season the All-Star Race is at Texas.

There aren’t any points for Sunday’s race, so the drivers will put everything on the line to win the $1 million prize.

Kurt Busch pulled off a surprise victory last week at Kansas. Will we see another surprise winner in the All-Star Race, or will the usual suspects rise to the top? Here are my favorite picks for the 2022 All-Star Race.

Kyle Larson (+500)

Kyle Larson had a wild performance at Kansas. He bounced off the wall a few times while battling for the lead. It looked like he would capture his second victory of 2022 but lost the lead in the final ten laps.

Larson is starting to find his stride after a slow start. He has finished sixth or better in five of his last six races and has led 19+ laps in five straight races. He should be a top contender in the All-Star Race.

Last season, there were two races at Texas. One was the All-Star Race, and the other was a playoff race. Check out his performance in those races.

  All-Star Race Playoff Race
Starting Position 1st 1st
Finishing Position 1st 1st
Laps Led 17 256

He made an aggressive move to pass Chase Elliott on the final restart in the All-Star Race. Larson held off Brad Keselowski to win the 2021 All-Star Race. In 2019, he won the All-Star Race at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Before last season, Texas was among Larson’s worst tracks. That’s certainly not the case heading into the All-Star Race. He has earned the right to be the favorite.

Kyle Busch (+750)

Kyle Busch was among the drivers battling for the win in last week’s race at Kansas. He overcame a pit-road penalty to score his fourth top-five finish of 2022. Busch has finished top 10 in six of his last seven races.

Busch has led more laps in the All-Star Race and at Texas than any other active driver. That immediately gives him the upper hand over the field.

He has a pair of wins in his last seven Texas starts, but his laps led put him ahead of his competitors.

  • 2018: 116
  • 2018: 0
  • 2019: 66
  • 2019: 18
  • 2020: 11
  • 2020: 90
  • 2021: 20

He won the spring 2018 and playoff 2020 race at Texas. Busch started second in last year’s All-Star Race, scoring a ninth-place finish. Busch has led laps in 14 of his 16 All-Star Races. He should extend that streak in this year’s race.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Busch was in victory lane at the end of the All-Star Race. He has shown speed in both 1.5-mile races in 2022. Texas isn’t a points race, but the setup will be similar to Las Vegas and Kansas.

Ryan Blaney (+900)

Ryan Blaney had a great start to the 2022 season, finishing seventh or better in six of the first nine races. It looked like he would battle Chase Elliott for the regular-season title, but Blaney has four straight finishes outside the top 10.

Blaney is moving in the wrong direction, but a visit to Texas Motor Speedway could end his cold streak. He had an overheating issue in the Spring 2019 race at Texas. Check out his Texas numbers since 2017, excluding that race.

  • 8 races
  • 3 top-five finishes
  • 7 top 10 finishes
  • 403 laps led
  • 6.3 average finish

Blaney has been on the verge of winning at Texas multiple times. He led 145+ laps in the Spring 2017 and 2020 races. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to close the deal. Blaney led 15 laps en route to a fifth-place finish in last year’s All-Star Race.

He hasn’t had much success in the All-Star Race, but his Texas numbers suggest that he could be in store for a breakout performance. It’s only a matter of time before he wins at Texas.

Will that victory come in the 2022 All-Star Race?

Kurt Busch (+2200)

Coming into last week’s race at Kansas, there was much disappointment surrounding Kurt Busch’s tenure with 23XI Racing. He had a solid start but went into last week’s race with six finishes of 16th or worse in his last seven races.

Busch surprised everyone with a dominant performance. He led 116 of 267 laps, passing Kyle Larson with eight laps to go to score his first victory with 23XI Racing. Will we see him score another victory?

Technically, it wouldn’t be two wins in a row, but Busch has momentum heading into the All-Star Race.

Busch’s lone victory at Texas was in 2009, but he has been consistent over the last five years. He finished 16th in last year’s playoff race, ending a streak of eight straight top 10 finishes at Texas.

It has been a few years since Busch competed for the win in the All-Star Race. He finished top-five in each All-Star Race from 2015 to 2017. However, he has finished 10th or worse in the last four All-Star Races.

Last week’s performance gives me confidence that he can turn things around in the All-Star Race. I love his value for the 2022 All-Star Race.

2022 All-Star Race: Best Props

Betting on NASCAR isn’t all about predicting the race winner. We examine the top betting props for the 2022 All-Star Race.

Christopher Bell Over Alex Bowman (-115)

Christopher Bell continues to emerge as one of the top drivers in the Cup Series. Bell has finished seventh or better in six of his last eight races. Bell has led 110 laps in that span.

Alex Bowman has quietly matched his consistency, finishing top 10 in seven of his last nine races. Both drivers have been flying under the radar, but Bell’s Texas numbers give him the advantage.

  Christopher Bell Alex Bowman
Starts 3 12
Top-Five Finishes 2 2
Top 10 Finishes 2 2
Average Finish 9.0 24.5

Bell has matched Bowman’s top-five finishes in nine fewer starts at Texas. Neither driver was in contention in last year’s All-Star Race.

Another factor in Bell’s favor is qualifying. Texas is a tough track to pass, meaning track position is extremely important. Bell has qualified on the pole in both 1.5-mile races, so he should start up front in the 2022 All-Star Race.

William Byron Over Chase Elliott (-110)

This should be a fun matchup between two of the best drivers in the Cup Series. Chase Elliott leads the Cup Series standings, but William Byron has a series-leading two victories. I believe Byron has the upper hand for the 2022 All-Star Race.

In last year’s playoff race at Texas, Byron led 55 laps, finishing runner-up to Kyle Larson. Elliott has finished 12th or worse in four of his previous five Texas races. Byron’s performance is a big reason he made my top Xfinity Series picks for Texas.

Byron arguably had the car to beat in last year’s All-Star Race. He led a race-high 30 laps, winning a stage. He fell back in the final stage, finishing seventh.

Elliott has been more consistent in 2022, but Byron has had more success at Texas. He should be a top contender in the All-Star Race. Byron should at least score a better finish than Elliott.

Toyota To Be The Winning Manufacturer (+160)

The All-Star Race won’t be your typical 40-car field. Instead, we’ll see 24 drivers compete for the $1 million prize. Chevrolet is the favorite to score the victory, but I love the value for Toyota.

Check out the Toyota drivers competing in Sunday’s All-Star Race.

  • Kyle Busch
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Christopher Bell
  • Kurt Busch
  • Bubba Wallace

Bubba Wallace likely won’t compete for the win, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the other five drivers are in contention. I’ve already discussed Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Christopher Bell’s All-Star Race outlook.

Denny Hamlin has had a tough 2022 season, but he has shown speed at the 1.5-mile tracks. That speed should carry over to Texas. Martin Truex Jr. has been knocking on the door of his first victory of 2022. Could he pick up his first All-Star Race victory?

The best NASCAR sportsbooks give us good value for a Toyota winning the All-Star Race.

Who Will Win the 2022 All-Star Race?

  • Kyle Busch

It’s a bit surprising that Kyle Busch only has one All-Star Race victory in his career. I expect that to change with the 2022 All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway.

Busch could’ve easily won both 1.5-mile races this season. It’s hard to find anyone that has consistently matched his speed at Las Vegas and Kansas. That should carry over to the All-Star Race at Texas.

Feel free to tune into the NASCAR All-Star Race on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET on FS1. Head over to Bovada to make your pick.

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Nicholas Sterling
Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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