2021 Xfinity 500 Predictions and Betting Tips

| October 28, 2021 6:52 am PDT

Another week, another dominant victory for Kyle Larson. I mean, can anything slow him down right now? That gives us back-to-back correct picks on the race winner.

Chase Elliott finishing top-five and Martin Truex Jr. finishing top 10 paid off as well. William Byron should’ve cashed in on the top-five bet but a late pit stop sent him to the back. He recovered to finish sixth.

Now, we head to Martinsville. Fans can tune into the race on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.

With three spots available in the Championship 4, it’ll be a battle all day. Let’s check out the odds.

Latest Odds for the Xfinity 500 in 2021

  • Martin Truex Jr. +450 
  • Kyle Larson +500
  • Chase Elliott +600
  • Denny Hamlin +650
  • Ryan Blaney +700
  • Kyle Busch +800
  • Joey Logano +850
  • Brad Keselowski +900
  • William Byron +1100
  • Christopher Bell +2000

Surprise! Kyle Larson is not the favorite this week. Instead, Martin Truex Jr. takes the top spot. He has won three of the last four races at Martinsville, including the Spring race this season.

Larson doesn’t have the best Martinsville numbers, but he finished fifth in the Spring. Even so, betting against him seems like a bad idea right now.

Chase Elliott finished runner-up last week. He won the playoff race last year at Martinsville to qualify for the Championship 4.

Denny Hamlin is in a great spot to make the Championship 4 on points. Still, the Virginia native would love to capture his sixth Martinsville victory.

Ryan Blaney rounds out the top five. Blaney needs a great showing following a 37th place finish last week.

Now, it’s time to check out my favorite bets.

Top Betting Tips for the 2021 Xfinity 500

  • Martin Truex Jr. Top Three Finish (+130)
  • Denny Hamlin Top Three Finish (+190)
  • Chase Elliott Top Five Finish (-135)
  • Brad Keselowski Top Five Finish (+110)

You can’t deny the speed Martin Truex Jr. has at Martinsville. I mentioned that he won three of the last four races at the track, but it goes beyond that.

He finished fourth or better in three of four races prior to the winning stretch.

Truex is three points below the playoff cutline. A great finish is a must if he wants to make the Championship 4.

Denny Hamlin has five wins at Martinsville in his career. However, only one of those has come since 2011. Since his most recent victory in 2015, he has four top-three finishes.

Hamlin led a race-high 276 laps in the Spring race before losing the lead late to Truex.

On 750-horsepower ovals in the playoffs, Hamlin has shown a ton of speed. Check out his numbers.

  • Darlington: 1st (146 laps led)
  • Richmond: 2nd (197 laps led)
  • Bristol: 9th (65 laps led)

He ran top three most of Bristol until late contact caused a flat tire.

I expect him to be upfront at Martinsville.

It looked like Chase Elliott was going to track down Kyle Larson last week and win. After hitting the wall in the final few laps, Elliott opted to play it safe and not cut a tire. He comes into this race 34 points above the cutline.

Elliott is riding a streak of four top-five finishes in his last five Martinsville races. That stretch includes his victory in last year’s playoff race.

There’s no reason to think he won’t be upfront again.

Brad Keselowski has shown speed in the playoffs and heads to Martinsville just six points below the cutline.

In his last 13 starts at Martinsville, Keselowski has finished inside the top-five 10 times. Two of his non top-five finishes involved crashes.

With a spot in the Championship 4 on the line, Keselowski should contend for the win.

2021 Xfinity 500 Prediction 

  • Predicted Winner: Ryan Blaney

After talking up Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin, I’m going to go against those drivers and pick Ryan Blaney.

Blaney closed the regular season with back-to-back wins. That put him in a great spot come playoff time. He remained in a good spot until a crash resulted in a 37th place finish last week.

Now, he enters Martinsville one point below the cutline. He can make up one point but what if a driver below the cutline wins their way in? Blaney has to run strong on Sunday to make the Championship 4.

When you talk about the best drivers at Martinsville, you typically don’t hear Blaney’s name. However, his numbers tell another story.

  • 2018 (Spring): 3rd (145 laps led)
  • 2018 (Fall): 20th
  • 2019 (Spring): 4th
  • 2019 (Fall): 5th
  • 2020 (Spring): 2nd (34 laps led)
  • 2020 (Fall): 2nd (36 laps led)
  • 2021 (Spring): 11th (157 laps led)

This year’s Spring race was a battle between Blaney and Denny Hamlin. Hamlin had the car to beat on short runs, but Blaney pulled ahead on long runs.

With just under 50 laps to go, the final caution came out. Blaney came in second but a pit road penalty dropped him to 19th on the restart.

Without the penalty, there’s a good chance Blaney wins that race.

Before last week’s crash, Blaney had four top 10 finishes in his last five races. The speed is there, but his team has to finish the job.

I think they do that this week as Blaney makes the Championship 4 for the first time in his career.

More Tips for Betting on the Xfinity 500

Over the last two weeks, I felt the best advice was to go with the drivers who excel on 1.5-mile tracks. This week, the best thing you can do is go off of past Martinsville results.

The usual suspects like Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney should run up front. Add in Chase Elliott and I’d say there’s a great chance the winner comes from that group.

Now that we’ve established the top contenders, head over to the top NASCAR betting sites to place your bets.

Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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