Predictions and Picks for 2021 Valero Texas Open

| March 29, 2021 12:10 pm PDT

The betting odds for the Valero Texas Open were thrown for a loop thanks to a late addition to the field. Not feeling like his game was sharp enough for Augusta, Dustin Johnson made a late commitment to San Antonio for one final tune-up.

DJ’s not the only household name at the Oaks Course, hoping to round into peak form ahead of next week’s major. Texas natives Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler are here, as is Tony Finau following his disappointing showing in Austin.

Will one of the tournament favorites be hoisting the crystal on Sunday, or could we see another Monday qualifier storm onto the scene as Corey Conners did in 2019?

Onto some Valero Texas Open predictions.

Best Bets for the Valero Texas Open in 2021

Designed by Greg Norman and Sergio Garcia, the Oaks Course is a haven for ball-strikers. Lined by large vegetation and equipped with undulating putting surfaces, it’s no wonder, so many of next week’s competitors chose to be here to prep for the Masters.

Moderate wind is expected, although “moderate” in this region can be upwards of 15 mph. In other words, target players who have proven that they can command the trajectory of their golf ball.

Ryan Palmer to Finish Top 10

This tournament was canceled in 2020; a casual glance at past results shows that Ryan missed the cut here in 2018 and 2019. Don’t let that mislead you.

This 44-year-old Texas resident landed inside the top-6 at TPC San Antonio in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Palmer’s missed just one cut in his last 17 starts and has racked up a trio of top-4s during that stretch.

Talk about a supreme ball-striker who knows how to flight his ball under the wind; Ryan’s game is tailor-made to succeed at this layout—currently ranked 4th in par-breakers, 4th in par-5 scoring, and 8th in par-4 scoring.

Matt Wallace to Finish Top 20

Hard golf courses and tough conditions – that’s when you want to target Matt Wallace. Enter the Valero Texas Open – a golf tournament where the winning score has landed between -8 and -12 in six of the last nine editions.

The 30-year-old Englishman didn’t wind up advancing out of group play at the WGC, but he convincingly beat a red-hot Sergio Garcia on Friday to at least keep things interesting.

Hanging out at +7000 (to win) at the best places to bet golf online, Matt’s odds to crack the top-20 should be oozing with value once the prop markets become available.

2021 Valero Texas Open Pick to Win

The more I scroll around snooping for worthwhile options, the more I find myself circling back to Charley Hoffman.

Charley’s connected on five straight cuts, including a couple of top-10s and a T17 at THE PLAYERS. He’s 26th in SG: total – better than Rory McIlroy, Sungjae Im, and Scottie Scheffler.

Aside from his well-rounded game being in a good place, you won’t find a more dependable horse for this course. Hoffman finished runner-up here in 2019, and check out his record at the Oaks Course between 2010-2016.

Charley Hoffman – Results at the Valero Texas Open
Year Finish
2010 13
2011 2
2012 13
2013 3
2014 11
2015 11
2016 1

A victory and nothing worse than a T13 in a seven-year period.

Hoffman carded just one bogey over his final 44 holes the last time he was here; it’s safe to say he has an affinity for this venue.

Pick
  • Charley Hoffman
    +3000

Last 10 Winners of the Valero Texas Open

The Texas Open has been a staple on the PGA Tour schedule since 1922. TPC San Antonio became the permanent home in 2010; have a look at who’s won here since the transition to the resort in Cibolo Canyons.

Winners of the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Year Winner Winning Score Margin of Victory
2019 Corey Conners -20 2
2018 Andrew Landry -17 2
2017 Kevin Chappell -12 1
2016 Charley Hoffman -12 1
2015 Jimmy Walker -11 4
2014 Steven Bowditch -8 1
2013 Martin Laird -14 2
2012 Ben Curtis -9 2
2011 Brendan Steele -8 1
2010 Adam Scott -14 1

Lots of tight finishes, but no playoffs since Zach Johnson prevailed over James Driscoll in 2009 (La Cantera Gol Club).

Stay tuned for additional Valero Texas Open picks on our golf blog this week.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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