Betting Picks for the 2021 PGA Championship – Swimming For Value at the Ocean Course

| May 18, 2021 10:55 am PDT

The PGA Championship has returned to Kiawah Island. Home of the “War on the Shore” and the eight-shot romping by Rory McIlroy in 2012, the Ocean Course is a diabolical Pete Dye design that’ll test the player’s patience. Only the fittest ball-strikers will survive at a venue that features six par-4s over 480 yards.

For more insight into Kiawah Island Resort, this guide offers more details into the stunning property that hugs the Atlantic Coast. For a run through my top PGA Championship picks, just keep following along.

PGA Championship Sleeper Picks in 2021

A robust field of 156 opens the door to lots of PGA Championship sleepers. As long as the course will play and as blustery as the conditions could get, there aren’t a ton of “outsiders” who have enough moxie to be the last man standing.

Then again, Shaun Micheel and Y.E. Yang have their names engraved on the Wanamaker Trophy, so I guess anything can happen.

Joaquin Nieman (+7500)

Hanging out at +7500 at one of the best places to bet on the PGA Championship, Joaquin Niemann is firmly entrenched on my radar this week. Averaging 312.4 yards per poke (8th on the PGA Tour) confirms that he’s plenty long enough to thrive at this layout.

As for his ability to keep his ball underneath the wind and hit all of the short game shots – “Joaco” has it all and then some. 9th in SG: Total ahead of names like Rory and Rahm, Niemann is worth a flier in my books. 8th and 18th in Tampa and Charlotte before resting this past week.

Keegan Bradley (+8000)

Not only did Keegan tee it up at the 2012 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island – he finished T3 and cemented his status as one of the top players in the game at that time. Don’t look now, but Bradley comes marching back nine years later playing some extraordinary golf.

During his streak of nine consecutive made cuts, Keegan has landed inside the top-30 eight times. He arrives in South Carolina having finished 4th-2nd-18th in his last three starts.

Ranked 5th on the PGA Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, a magical week with his putter could result in Keegan’s second Wanamaker Trophy.

I’ll keep it rolling with my PGA Championship predictions.

Top-20 Finish – Tony Finau (+150)

Tony Finau’s laundry list of top-10s in PGA Tour events since his last victory (2016 Puerto Rico Open) has been well documented. What hasn’t received as much attention is his superb play at the major championships.

Since 2018, Tony leads all players with eight top-10s at the majors.

In all, Finau has registered top-20s in 11 of the 19 majors he’s teed it up at during his career.

Zeroing in on a golf course that measures around 7,800 yards, the cream will slowly rise to the top by Sunday. I was all set to hammer Tony in the top-20 market at +138; finding him at +150 ( makes this wager even more enticing.

Matchup Bet – Tommy Fleetwood (+133) over Tyrrell Hatton

Moving into the head-to-head selection, there wasn’t a whole lot in the “plus-money” territory that had me jumping for joy. However, backing Fleetwood at +133 versus Hatton definitely piqued my interest.

Tyrell Hatton played wonderfully in the Middle East early in 2021, but that was back in January. What has Tyrell been up to lately?

He’s played six events in the states without logging anything better than a T18. He finished T39 his last time out at the RBC Heritage. Those wondering if the feisty Englishman spent this past weekend in “grind mode”, know that Hatton seemed more fascinated with trying to recreate Happy Gilmore’s swing.

Tommy Fleetwood is far from a sure thing, but he’s quietly starting to pop. Tommy followed his 10th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a T5 at the WGC Match Play. He played well most recently (T14) at Quail Hollow and has one of the best short games on tour (7th in SG: Around-the-Green).

Time to round out these PGA Championship betting picks with my final prediction.

2021 PGA Championship Pick to Win

There are a lot of viable directions to go here, but I find myself circling back Jordan time and time again. After all, Spieth clocks in #1 in my PGA Championship power rankings post.

The pressure of trying to complete the career Grand Slam is deafening, but it was only blaring to Jordan when his game was out of order. The noise drowns away this week thanks to Spieth firing on all cylinders.

Still putting like a wizard, Jordan is driving it much better of late and is leaning on reinvigorated iron play.

Spieth has gained strokes on the field on his approach shots in 27 of his last 32 rounds. That’s on the heels of gaining strokes on the field on his approach shots just 44.7% of the time in 2020

9th or better in four straight starts, the win at the Valero Texas Open was far from the icing on the cake in regards to Spieth’s comeback. It’s just the beginning.

  • Jordan Spieth
Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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