Top Betting Picks for the 2021 Memorial Tournament

| June 2, 2021 7:05 am PDT

11 of the top 15 players in the world have made it to Dublin, OH, to try their hand at a new-look Muirfield Village Golf Club. That doesn’t include Jordan Spieth – fresh off a runner-up showing at Colonial, or Louis Oosthuizen – rested after a runner-up at Kiawah Island.

Among the renovations at the site dubbed “Jack’s Place,” we’ll see a top-tier field tackling several redesigned greens and a handful of new tee boxes. With the action set to get underway bright and early on Thursday, I’ll begin unveiling a series of Memorial Tournament predictions.

Memorial Tournament Sleeper Picks in 2021

There are numerous ways to approach betting on the Memorial Tournament online. One could take a quick glance at the past three winners and assume that backing one of the favorites is the only way to go.

The Memorial Tournament Winners Since 2018
Year Winner OWGR (week of the Memorial)
2020 Jon Rahm 2
2019 Patrick Cantlay 14
2018 Bryson DeChambeau 38

However, looking at who won here in the three years prior to 2018 tells a different story.

The Memorial Tournament Winners 2015-2017
Year Winner OWGR (week of the Memorial)
2017 Jason Dufner 65
2016 William McGirt 102
2015 David Lingmerth 212

Keeping the latter in mind, here are a couple of sleeper picks for the Memorial Tournament in 2021.

Rickie Fowler (+6600)

Rickie’s not officially out of his slump, but a T8 at the PGA Championship goes a long way for his confidence. Fowler has talked about no longer thinking “golf swing” and just thinking about hitting “golf shots,” and there’s no question he looked more comfortable with his game the last time out. The 5x PGA Tour winner gained nearly 4-in-a-half strokes on his approach shots at Kiawah Island and slotted 13th in SG: Putting.

No longer toying with a low left-hand grip or a mallet putter, Rickie is simply getting back to the basics and focusing on the things that made him a top-10 player in the world, to begin with. Three top-15s at Muirfield Village Golf Club in his last four tries, including a T2 in 2017.

Aaron Wise (+12500)

Arriving at Jack’s Place having connected on six of his last seven cuts, Aaron Wise is a hot putter away from being in contention late on a Sunday. Ranked 10th on the tour in GIR, Wise’s T17 at the PGA Championship came just a couple of weeks after his T9 at Quail Hollow.

After sustaining little success at this layout in his first two tries, perhaps the modifications to the golf course plays in his favor. Lurking at +12500 to win at the top golf betting sites at least has me intrigued. 

Top-20 Finish – Charley Hoffman (+163)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

After profiting nicely off Charley Hoffman last week in the top-20 market (+175), I’m going right back to the well for one of my top Memorial Tournament betting picks.

It’s a little worrisome that Hoffman has only cracked the top-30 once during his career at this venue (11 appearances), but I’m willing to brush aside his lack of positive course history given his current form.

Since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March, Charley has ripped off top-20s in eight of nine starts. This includes six in a row.

Ranked 5th in SG: Approach and 15th in scrambling, there are many things we can point to that help explain his recent surge. The most glaring enhancement in Hoffman’s game is his added boost off the tee. Case in point – Charley has picked up more than 10 yards off the tee since last season alone. (296.5 in 2020, 306.8 in 2021).

Matchup Bet – Jordan Spieth (+125) Over Jon Rahm 

The key to securing a positive ROI when targeting head-to-head matchups is diligently combing the sportsbooks. With so many matchups being offered at different bookies, you’re bound to spot discrepancies that’ll start piquing your interest.

In this case, I shopped Spieth vs. Rahm until eventually landing on Jordan at +125 at BetUS.

Rahm posted a top-10 at Kiawah Island based on raw talent alone, but his attitude on the course has continued to wane since the birth of his child. Jon was out of sorts at the Wells Fargo Championship (MC) and looked sluggish at the Nelson (T34) – he’s a bit of a hit or miss play for me this week.

Flip the coin, and Jordan just finished solo-second with his “B” or “C” game.

Spieth vs. Rahm in 2021
Jordan Spieth Jon Rahm
Starts 12 12
Top-15s 9 9
Top 4s 6 0
Wins 1 0

Assessing their play in 2021, I wouldn’t have batted an eye had Spieth been favored over Rahm. Being that Jordan’s listed at +125, this bet turns into a “green-light special.”

2021 Memorial Tournament Pick to Win

I’ll round out my Memorial Tournament picks with my “last man standing” prediction. After sorting through the multitude of changes Jack Nicklaus incorporated into this year’s setup, here’s my biggest takeaway.

  • Less acreage of fairways
  • More acreage of rough
Narrow fairways that guys will be missing with tangled rough that gets nasty. It sounds a lot like the setup at Winged Foot when Bryson drummed the field by six shots.

Just one top-35 finish since The PLAYERS in March is a bit concerning, but don’t put it past DeChambeau to make a statement at Muirfield Village. Built to thrive on long and tough golf courses, Bryson conquered this layout in 2018 when he was hitting it 305. Now carrying it 330 with ease, the Mad Scientist possesses a polished short game to aid his aggressive attack. 13th in scrambling from the rough and 6th in putting from 10-15’, look for DeChambeau to down a celebratory milkshake come Sunday night.

  • Bryson DeChambeau
Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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