Prediction and Betting Pick for the 2021 Masters
The azaleas are in full bloom, the pimento cheese sandwiches are wrapped, the players have turned down Magnolia Lane, and the patrons are starting to fill in.
Masters week has officially arrived.
In this edition of my Masters betting posts, the plan is to zero in on the Green Jacket. Let’s set aside the props for now – I’ll address markets such as matchups and top-20 bets in a future column.
Let’s figure out who will be the last man standing in Butler Cabin on Sunday evening.
Top Candidates at the 2021 Masters
From what I can gather, almost all of the best sites to bet on the Masters have listed Rory McIlroy at +1800. He’s sixth in line ahead of names like Schauffele and Koepka, but he’s well behind the five-pack of favorites.
Keep in mind; Tiger went off at +1200 in 2019, DJ closed at +800 in November. When you’re contemplating a Masters prediction, you probably don’t want to stray too far from the top of the betting sheet.
Dustin Johnson (+900)
The defending champ has cooled since his incredible run to close out 2020. Dustin won the Saudi International during Super Bowl weekend and posted a top-10 two weeks later at the Genesis, but the gas tank finally hit “E” at The Concession.
As we look ahead toward Thursday’s opening round, the world #1 is searching. Zero top-25s in his last three starts, and his numbers are dwindling. Johnson clocks in 63rd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 149th in SG: Putting (2020-21 PGA Tour season).
DJ balked at the idea of playing in the Valero Texas Open after entering the field at the eleventh hour – there’s clearly some uncertainty surrounding his feel.
Jordan Spieth (+1100)
You’d be hard-pressed to find a golfer who’s more comfortable on the premises. 2nd-1st-2nd-11th-3rd in his first five trips to Augusta – we know Spieth can roll his rock on these treacherous putting surfaces. Any concerns about his long game can be thrown out the window after Jordan put on a ball-striking clinic at TPC San Antonio.
Jordan Spieth gained 12.89 strokes on the field tee-to-green this week, his most over 72 holes in any of his 12 PGA Tour victories.— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 4, 2021
Nobody is playing better over the last two months. Perhaps he peaked a week early, but a victory was inevitable given the way he’s been knocking on the door since Phoenix.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1100)
We talk about Bryson’s length and how it’ll be a massive advantage at Augusta National – that’s obvious. What doesn’t get enough attention is how solid he is in the other areas of his game.
Did you realize that DeChambeau leads the PGA Tour in par-3 scoring average? Would you believe Bryson is ahead of Jordan Spieth in SG: Putting?
The Mad Scientist won at Bay Hill and nearly hoisted the hardware at TPC Sawgrass, although his lone top-25 at the Masters came as an amateur in 2016. If you’re antsy about backing Bryson to win but want in on his action, check out the post below.
Justin Thomas (+1200)
If you want a Masters pick that’s trending in the right direction at Augusta, look no further than Justin Thomas.
|Justin Thomas – By the Numbers at the Masters|
JT has racked up nine top-15s in 11 starts this season and is coming off a historical tee-to-green performance at THE PLAYERS. To shoot four-under-par in the final round, losing more than two strokes on the greens is hard to fathom unless you’ve ever stepped onto the tee feeling as confident as Justin felt.
Full disclosure. My Masters prediction eventually came down to two guys; Thomas is one of them.
Jon Rahm (+1200)
All of the Jon Rahm fans betting on the Masters can breathe a huge sigh of relief. Jon and his wife Kelley welcomed their son Kepa Cahill into the world on early Sunday morning, ending any doubts of whether or not Rahm would be sticking around for the weekend.
Jon is yet to break through since switching into Callaway gear, but his dependability in 2021 has been stellar. Rahm’s landed 7th or better in 7 of his last 9 starts and ranks 2nd on the tour in SG: Tee-to-Green. Top-10s in each of his last three trips to Augusta.
My Pick to Win the Masters in 2021
We hashed through the betting favorites at Augusta. I mentioned Rory being hot on their trail along with Xander Schauffele and Brooks Koepka. There’s another world-class player in that same range who wasn’t mentioned, but that was by design.
Patrick Cantlay gets his own segment because he’s my pick to win the 2021 Masters.
Cantlay won the Zozo Championship in December and has continued to lurk on and around page one of leaderboards ever since. Dating back to his T17 at the November Masters, Patrick has finished inside the top 20 in six of seven starts. That includes finishing runner-up at The American Express and tying for 3rd at Pebble Beach. Cantlay didn’t get his group in Austin, but his “T18” at the WGC Match Play doesn’t tell the full story.
Patrick led the field in strokes gained in round one. He again led the field in strokes gained in round two. He simply ran into a buzzsaw on Friday. The world’s 10th-ranked golfer slots 8th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 7th in SG: Around-the-Greens – he’s got no weaknesses to speak of.
In case Fred Ridley and his fellow chairmen at Augusta are wondering, Cantlay should be able to slide into a 40L quite comfortably.