Predictions and Betting Tips for the 2021 KitchenAid Senior PGA Championship

| May 25, 2021 11:09 am PDT

After getting inspired by Phil Mickelson’s win at Kiawah Island, rest assured that the competitors at Southern Hills are fired up for the Senior PGA Championship. Many of the guys in the field are no strangers to this week’s venue, in fact, three of them have won prestigious events held on this very golf course.

  • Billy Mayfair – 1995 Tour Championship
  • Tom Lehman – 1996 Tour Championship
  • Retief Goosen – 2001 US Open

On the heels of “Lefty” deciding to tee it up with the big boys at Colonial, Steve Stricker saunters in Tulsa as the heavy favorite to lift the Alfred S. Bourne Trophy. Jim Furyk follows behind, with Bernhard Langer and Alex Cejka rounding out the top four names on the Senior PGA Championship odds sheet. Kevin Sutherland remains sidelined with an injured knee.

Best Bets for the 2021 Senior PGA Championship

I’ll kick off my Champions Tour predictions with a couple of bets I like in the prop markets. If you scope the best golf sportsbooks online, you’ll find odds for top-5 and top-10 finishes, as well as prices for the first-round lead (FRL).

Perhaps the juiciest market of all is the head-to-head matchup selection. Among these potential wagers, here are two that caught my attention thanks to the betting value attached.

Mike Weir to Finish Inside the Top 10 (+200)

Mike Weir has teed it up five times on the senior circuit since the calendar shifted to 2021. He kicked the year off with a T7 in Hawaii and has since added a runner-up and a victory. Mike’s dependable ball-striking this season is worth noting – he’s 12th in driving distance and 10th in GIR. However, it’s a spiffy short game that has enabled the left-handed Canadian to start shooting up leaderboards.  

“Weirsy” leads the Champions Tour in sand save % and clocks in 13th in putting average.

For what it’s worth, Mike tied for 19th at the 2001 US Open at Southern Hills. 

Darren Clarke (-115) to Beat Miguel Angel Jimenez  

In this matchup of evenly-priced golfers, there are lots of similarities. Clarke ranks 18th in GIR and 9th in putting average; Jimenez is right there with him at 20th and 10th, respectively. Both are laid-back and do things in their own way, but there are some distinct discrepancies.

I’ll use the graphic below to illustrate some of the advantages.

Darren Clarke vs. Miguel Angel Jimenez This Season – By the Numbers
Driving Distance Total Driving Birdie Average Ball Striking All-Around Ranking
Darren Clarke 6th 2nd 5th 6th 5th
Miguel Angel Jimenez 13th 21st 9th 19th 9th

These two men have played in the same three events this month: the Insperity Invitational, the Regions Tradition, and the Mitsubishi Electric Classic. Darren has beaten “The Mechanic” on all three occasions.

Laying just -115, Clarke over Jimenez is one of my top Senior PGA Championship picks.

2021 Senior PGA Championship Pick to Win

Steve Stricker’s +350 price tag takes all the shine off betting on the Wisconsin native to win. On the flip side, another Wisconsinite is hanging out at a much more appealing number.

Southern Hills demands a lot off the tee and into the greens – you can’t fake your way around this track. So why not target the guy who leads the PGA Tour Champions in ball-striking?

Sitting 3rd in total driving and 4th in GIR, Jerry Kelly arrives in Tulsa in quite the groove. 8th or better in five of his six starts in 2021, Kelly’s been able to lean on a reliable short game that continues to put him in contention on the weekend.

On top of his prowess off the tee and with his irons, the 7-time winner on the 50-and-over circuit ranks 4th in scrambling and 5th in three-putt avoidance. Kelly’s won at least once in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. It’s only a matter of time until he emerges in 2021.

  • Jerry Kelly
Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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