2021 Hollywood Casino 400 Sleeper Picks and Value Bets

| October 21, 2021 6:51 am PDT

Last week, we had a lot of success with our sleeper picks. William Byron and Tyler Reddick were both in the top-five late in the race. Byron finished second, while Reddick fell back to ninth. Either way, both cashed in on the top 10 bet.

This week, the Cup Series heads to Kansas. In addition to my predictions and top pick, I feel there are a few quality sleepers that could pay off.

Let’s check them out.

Brad Keselowski (+1400)

  • Best Bet: Top 10 Finish (-200)

Following an underwhelming regular season, I expected a quick playoff exit for Brad Keselowski. It also didn’t help his case that he won’t return to Team Penske next season.

In the playoffs, we’ve seen a driver that believes he can win a championship.

Keselowski has finished inside the top 10 in five of the seven playoff races. That includes a seventh and fourth-place finish at Las Vegas and Texas, respectively. That’s important to note because they are 1.5-mile tracks.

This week, the Cup Series will race on a 1.5-mile track in Kansas.

Outside of the playoffs, we’ve seen Keselowski excel on 1.5-mile tracks this season. Check out a few of his best runs.

  Finishing Position Laps Led
Homestead 16th 47
Las Vegas (Spring) 2nd 27
Kansas (Spring) 3rd 72
Las Vegas (Fall) 7th 4
Texas 4th 0

When you look at his Kansas history, Keselowski has a pair of wins and 13 top 10 finishes.

He has finished sixth or better in five of his last six starts at the track.

I wouldn’t be afraid to target the top five bet of (+175). In my mind, the top 10 bet is much safer and still presents good value.

Kevin Harvick (+1800)

  • Best Bet: Top 10 Finish (-155)

When you talk about falling short of preseason expectations, Kevin Harvick is in the same position as Brad Keselowski. We’ve seen Harvick consistently run in the top 10, but he hasn’t won a race in 2021.

Last season, he won nine times.

While no longer in the playoffs, Harvick has just one finish worse than ninth in the playoffs. He has led over 16 laps in three playoff races as well.

Could this be the weekend Harvick finally finds victory lane in 2021?

Harvick has been money at Kansas throughout his career. Let’s check out his numbers from his last 16 starts.

  • 3 wins
  • 10 top-five finishes
  • 12 top 10 finishes
  • 60+ laps led eight times

I’ll admit, it’s hard to trust some of Harvick’s past success because he has been so off this season. However, we’ve seen him show top 10 speed on 1.5-mile tracks.

He finished top 10 at Homestead, Atlanta, Kansas, Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Texas.

If you asked me a month ago, I would’ve said no way Harvick wins a race this year. I still think it’s unlikely but I could realistically see it happening.

Either way, he should have the speed to run top 10.

Tyler Reddick (+2200)

  • Best Bet: Top 10 Finish (-140)

Last week, Tyler Reddick nearly cashed in with (+3000) odds. He was on the outside of the front row on a late-race restart. Ultimately, he fell back but his ninth-place finish helped bettors that took my suggestion with the top 10 bet.

This week, I’m taking the same approach.

This is only Reddick’s second full-time season in the Cup Series. Because of that, we don’t have a ton of past track success to go off. However, we do have his stats on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Last week, Reddick reaffirmed his expertise on the track type. His ninth-place finish at Texas gives him five straight top 10 finishes on 1.5-mile tracks.

In the Spring race at Kansas, we saw Reddick run up front early. He nearly won Stage 1 before settling for a third-place finish. He went on to finish seventh in the race.

What makes Reddick so good at tracks like Kansas is his ability to ride the wall. It’s the farther way around the track but you can build so much speed down the straightaways. Reddick is right up there with Kyle Larson for drivers who excel riding the wall.

Reddick is a great value pick this week.

Christopher Bell (+3000)

  • Best Bet: Top 10 Finish (-125)

While he wasn’t on my sleepers list, Christopher Bell nearly pulled off an upset victory last week. He wasn’t a major factor throughout the race, but he used fresh tires to work his way up to fourth on the final restart.

Bell came home with a third-place finish.

It’s interesting because Bell has had mixed results on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Top 10 finishes

  • Las Vegas (Spring)
  • Atlanta (Summer)
  • Texas

Finishes outside the top 20

  • Homestead
  • Atlanta (Spring)
  • Kansas (Spring)
  • Charlotte
  • Las Vegas (Fall)

Coincidentally enough, he doesn’t have any finishes between 11-19 on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

I can understand if some people are hesitant to bet on him given his results on the track type this season. However, the odds are so high that it’s almost a risk-free bet.

Bell has just three starts at Kansas in the Cup Series. He finished 10th in last fall’s race.

In the Xfinity Series, Bell captured his first career victory at the track. He also had the winning car in the Fall 2019 race before a late crash relegated him to a 12th place finish.

Things could go either way this weekend. But hey, there’s a reason he is a long shot.

Where to Bet on the Hollywood Casino 400 in 2021

Lately, we’ve seen a lot of sleepers working their way to the front. Bubba Wallace won a few weeks ago, and over the last two races, William Byron and Tyler Reddick have nearly pulled off upsets wins.

With that in mind, it’s a great time to tell you that the top NASCAR betting sites are available for NASCAR betting.

Use them to check out the wide range of bets available.

Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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