2021 Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions and Betting Tips

| October 20, 2021 1:54 pm PDT

Last week, Kyle Larson became the first driver to qualify for the Championship 4. He led 256 of 334 laps from the pole en route to a dominant victory at Texas. It’s a good thing we cashed in on the winner because the placement bets didn’t have much success.

We hit William Byron finishing in the top 10 but that was it. Turns out, I was too conservative, as he ran top three all day and finished second.

Hopefully, I can have more success this week at Kansas. Coverage of Sunday’s race will begin at 3 p.m. ET on NBC.

For now, let’s check out the odds.

Latest Odds for the Hollywood Casino 400 in 2021

  • Kyle Larson (+240)
  • Denny Hamlin (+550)
  • Kyle Busch (+600)
  • Chase Elliott (+800)
  • William Byron (+900)
  • Ryan Blaney (+1000)
  • Martin Truex Jr. (+1100)
  • Brad Keselowski (+1400)
  • Joey Logano (+1600)
  • Kevin Harvick (+1800)

Another week, another race where Kyle Larson is the favorite. Larson is the king of 1.5-mile tracks in 2021 and Kansas is no exception. He may be locked into the Championship 4, but don’t think he won’t go for another win.

Denny Hamlin had a very uncharacteristic run last week. He heads to a track where he has two wins in his last four starts.

Kyle Busch’s first win of 2021 came in the Spring race at Kansas. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be a contender once again.

A pair of Hendrick Motorsports drivers round out the top five. Chase Elliott needs a strong run after a ho-hum seventh-place finish last week. William Byron is no longer in the playoffs, but he is a threat to win every week.

Now, let’s check out my favorite bets for Kansas.

Top Betting Tips for the 2021 Hollywood Casino 400

  • Kyle Busch Top Five Finish (-125)
  • Chase Elliott Top Five Finish (-110)
  • William Byron Top Five Finish (+110)
  • Martin Truex Jr. Top 10 Finish (-260)

Kyle Busch finished better than 10th once in his first 14 starts at Kansas. In 13 races since, he has two wins and nine top-five finishes.

In the Spring race this season, he led 20 laps and passed Kyle Larson late to capture his first victory of 2021.

Busch had a bit of a hiccup last week, but he has six top-five finishes on 1.5-mile tracks this season. I expect him to make it seven as he continues his pursuit of a spot in the Championship 4.

Chase Elliott comes into this week’s race eight points below the cutline. Well, it’s a good thing that Kansas is one of his better tracks. Check out his recent finishes.

  • 2018: 1st
  • 2019 (Spring): 4th
  • 2019 (Fall): 2nd
  • 2020 (Summer): 12th
  • 2020 (Fall): 6th
  • 2021 (Spring): 5th

Elliott has three top-five finishes on 1.5-mile tracks and nearly won at Las Vegas earlier in the playoffs. He should run up front and accrue points.

William Byron is out of the playoffs, but he looks like a championship-caliber driver. If not for Kyle Larson, Byron would’ve destroyed the field last week.

Byron only has one top-five in seven career starts at Kansas. However, we can’t deny his speed on 1.5-mile tracks.

If you look at total speed on the track type this season, he is second to Larson. That speed should carry over to Kansas.

A late crash last week put Martin Truex Jr. in a big hole. He is 22 points below the cutline and needs a great run at Kansas.

Truex has eight top 10 finishes in his last nine Kansas races. I opted to play a little conservative because he hasn’t been great on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

He has top-five potential, but the top 10 bet is almost a guarantee. I wouldn’t be afraid to be aggressive with it.

2021 Hollywood Casino 400 Prediction 

  • Predicted Winner: Kyle Larson

Last week, I sat here and wrote about how it’s no fun to bet on the favorite. At the same time, I couldn’t go against Larson on a 1.5-mile track. Well, the same thing applies this week.

If we’re being honest, Larson has been amazing just about everywhere this season. There’s a reason he is just 54 laps away from breaking Jeff Gordon’s record for most laps led in a 36-race season.

By the way, Larson already broke the record for most laps led in a season on 1.5-mile tracks.

Last week, Larson dominated at a Texas track that didn’t bring him much success in the past. This week, he heads to a Kansas track that has brought him a lot of success.

Let’s check out his last seven races at Kansas.

  • 2017 (Spring): 6th
  • 2017 (Fall): 39th
  • 2018 (Spring): 4th – 101 laps led
  • 2018 (Fall): 3rd
  • 2019 (Spring): 8th
  • 2019 (Fall): 14th – 60 laps led
  • 2021 (Spring): 19th – 132 laps led

He has yet to win there, but the same could be said for all eight tracks he won at this season.

Among the eight 1.5-mile races this season, Larson has been No. 1 in total speed four times. That includes the Spring race at Kansas.

Because he is the favorite at (+240), I wouldn’t blame you for looking for more value. However, I can’t go against Larson right now. Especially not at a 1.5-mile track.

To top things off, he’ll start Sunday’s race from the pole.

More Tips for Betting on the Hollywood Casino 400

Like last week, I’d say the best thing to research is a driver’s success on 1.5-mile tracks this season. You’ll primarily find drivers like Kyle Larson, William Byron, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott.

I didn’t mention Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin, but both will likely factor into who wins Sunday’s race.

Hopefully, you have a better idea of who the top contenders are for Kansas. If so, go ahead and use the top NASCAR betting sites to place your bets.

Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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