Odds, Prediction, and Pick for the 2021 Daytona 500

| February 12, 2021 1:42 am PDT

It’s time to make my predictions for the 2021 Daytona 500, which will hopefully help you make money on NASCAR’s classic race.

I’ll be looking at the odds for the Daytona 500, which goes down this Sunday, February 14, to see where the value is. Then, I’ll be looking at the likely winners before making my final 2021 Daytona 500 pick.

I already provided some early tips for betting on the 2021 Daytona 500, but there’s more information available now and I’m ready to predict the winner of the race.

let’s start by looking at the latest odds.

Latest 2021 Daytona 500 Odds

There are some crazy odds for the Daytona 500 in the list above.

Denny Hamlin is the favorite for the race, coming in at +800. Hamlin is aiming to become the first driver in NASCAR history to win three consecutive ‘500s at this world-famous superspeedway.

Chase Elliott is tied with Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Ryan Blaney at +1000. Although the reigning Cup Series champion picked up a win at the Daytona Road Course in 2020, he had a patchy record at the superspeedway until finishing 2nd at last year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400.

Both Hamlin and Elliott are seeing a lot of action with the best betting sites for NASCAR. They are quite rightly among the top Daytona 500 odds, sure. But is there anyone else on this list that also deserves to be considered a favorite for the race?

Let’s find out.

Top Contenders for the Daytona 500

If you’re looking to bet on the Daytona 500 for real money, familiarize yourself with the following trio.

These are the guys most likely to enter Victory Lane this Sunday.

Any NASCAR fan with knowledge of the biggest shocks over the years will know that making Daytona 500 predictions is difficult.

With that said, I believe that these are the best candidates for the job. One of these guys might be responsible for a lot of broken hearts this Valentine’s Day.

Denny Hamlin

  • Odds to Win: +800 (Favorite)
  • Previous Daytona 500 Wins: 3
  • Last Win at Daytona: 2020

You might think Hamlin’s odds to win the Daytona 500 are a little slim.

But given the fact that he’s chasing his third victory here in a row means that the bookies are hot on him. Winning this race is hard enough. Winning the “Great American Race” three times in a row seems highly unlikely.

In a race regarded for its inconsistency, Hamlin is looking to change the way we approach gambling on the Daytona 500.

Will Hamlin win for the third year in a row? I’ll answer that question a little later.

Chase Elliott

  • Odds to Win: +1000
  • Previous Daytona 500 Wins: 0
  • Last Win at Daytona: 2020 (Road Course)

The reigning, defending NASCAR Cup Series champion comes in with Daytona 500 odds of +1000.

He might have no wins in this race, but he has a 2nd place finish in the last event held on the main track.

And while it is not super relevant, Elliott winning the first race at the Daytona Road Course in 2020 is worth another mention.

Elliott’s average finish on this track is 16.11. If you are betting on NASCAR reguarly or religiously follow a NASCAR betting strategy, you’ll know how important it is to take form into the equation. But Chase Elliott’s odds for the 2021 Daytona 500 are spot on here. He has a big chance of winning this race.

Chase Elliott Record at Daytona
Date Finish Start S1 Finish S2 Finish
Aug 29, 2920 2 27 N/A N/A
Feb 16, 2020 17 25 1 7
Jul 7, 2019 35 7 5 4
Feb 17, 2019 17 18 7 N/A
Jul 7, 2018 34 1 5 N/A
Feb 18, 2018 33 4 8 N/A
Jul 1, 2017 22 2 N/A N/A
Feb 26, 2017 14 1 N/A N/A
Jul 2, 2016 32 24 N/A N/A
Feb 21, 2016 37 1 N/A N/A

Kyle Busch

  • Odds to Win +1500
  • Previous Daytona 500 Wins: 0
  • Last Win at Daytona: 2021 (The Clash)

Busch’s sole points win at the Daytona superspeedway circuit came in the Coke Zero 400. But don’t rule him out when making your 2021 Daytona 500 betting picks.

He will be licking his lips at the chance to cause an upset at the first Cup Series race on the calendar.

The 2019 NASCAR Cup Series champion had a poor year, making a meek defense of his title in 2020. But he has started this year off by winning The Clash at Daytona. That’s a great sign for a driver that is super keen to impress this season.

Busch has never won the Daytona 500. He did, however, finish 2nd in 2019.

Other Drivers to Watch at the 2021 Daytona 500

The winner of the 2021 Daytona 500 is most likely to come from the top contenders I mentioned above.

But the following drivers could also be worth watching,

Kyle Larson +1800

Larson makes his comeback to NASCAR in the No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro for Hendrick Motorsports.

Can “Yung Money” make you money on your Daytona 500 picks?

William Byron +1800

Byron, the winner of the 2020 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona, is worth a couple of George Washingtons.

At odds of +1800, he is a little underpriced.

Bubba Wallace +2500

Wallace is racing for Michael Jordan’s new NASCAR team.

Denny Hamlin is a minority owner and will be mentoring Wallace. With the right equipment, as well as the advice of Hamlin, he could be up there with the best bets for the Daytona 500.

Who Wins the 2021 Daytona 500

  • Denny Hamlin

It might not be the most profound advice to gamble on the Daytona 500 in 2021, but I would suggest backing Hamlin.

He has shown he is one of the best Daytona 500 drivers in history and is aiming for his fourth win in the illustrious race.

Not many drivers can boast the sublime skills of the man behind the wheel of the 11 Toyota Camry. He is arguably the greatest NASCAR driver in history never to win a title. He’s in the conversation, at the very least.

My prediction for the Daytona 500 is Hamlin fighting his way to the front late on and taking the win in a super exciting fashion.

If odds of +800 don’t do it for you, you should check out my Daytona 500 sleepers, which feature value bets and longshots for Sunday’s NASCAR classic.

You can find more Daytona 500 betting content on the NASCAR blog section of this site. I’ll leave you with some of our popular content for the race!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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