Baker Mayfield Traded to the Panthers – How it Affects Their Odds

By Nicholas Sterling in Sports
| July 7, 2022 7:06 am PDT

The quarterback trade market was among the biggest storylines of the 2022 offseason. Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Carson Wentz changed teams in March.

Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo remained the final dominos to fall. We can take one player off that list, as the Cleveland Browns sent Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers.

Mayfield led the Browns to the playoffs in 2020 but struggled last season. Deshaun Watson’s acquisition left a strain between Mayfield and the Browns. This gives Mayfield a chance at a fresh start.

Baker Mayfield Full Trade Details

  • Carolina Panthers Receive: Baker Mayfield
  • Cleveland Browns Receive: 2024 Conditional Draft Pick

Baker Mayfield heads to the Carolina Panthers following Wednesday’s trade. The Cleveland Browns will receive a fourth-round pick if Mayfield plays at least 70 percent of the snaps. If not, the Browns will receive a fifth-round pick.

Cleveland knew they had to trade Mayfield as he wouldn’t play for the franchise. Jacoby Brissett was the next man up in the event of a potential Deshaun Watson suspension.

Carolina enters the season with Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and rookie Matt Corral. Mayfield and Darnold were top-three picks in the 2018 NFL draft, but they’ll battle for the starting job with the Panthers.

How the Mayfield Trade Impacts the Panthers for 2022

  • Division: (+1000)
  • Conference: (+6000)
  • Super Bowl: (+12500)

Ultimately, there’s little movement with the Carolina Panthers’ odds following the Baker Mayfield trade. There was a slight boost in their NFC South odds, but they remain a distant third behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints.

My Super Bowl 57 sleepers had the Panthers as the biggest longshot. My thinking behind it was their weapons on both sides of the ball. However, they’d need to upgrade the quarterback position before becoming a playoff contender.

Right now, we don’t know if Mayfield or Sam Darnold will be the Week 1 starter. Darnold has the upper hand because he spent last season with Carolina.

Check out each player’s numbers from the 2021 season.

  Baker Mayfield Sam Darnold
Completion Percentage 60.5 59.9
Yards 3,010 2,527
Touchdowns 17 9
Interceptions 13 13

The numbers tell us that Mayfield should be the Week 1 starter. It’s not difficult to have an upgrade over Darnold, but Mayfield could rejuvenate his career with the Panthers.

He struggled with a significant shoulder injury last season, but Mayfield led the Browns to the playoffs with 26 touchdowns in 2020.

Mayfield should have much more to work with in Carolina. Christian McCaffrey remains an elite player in the run and passing game, and DJ Moore has superstar potential. Can Mayfield unlock the Panthers’ offense?

I would’ve felt better about the Panthers if they acquired someone like Jimmy Garoppolo, but this is a nice under-the-radar move. I doubt it wins them the Super Bowl, but they could be a surprise contender for a wild-card spot.

How Does Mayfield Affect the Browns’ Odds?

  • Division: (+275)
  • Conference: (+1400)
  • Super Bowl: (+2800)

Overall, this trade won’t impact the Cleveland Browns’ odds. Baker Mayfield wasn’t playing for them, even with a Deshaun Watson suspension. This trade confirms that Jacoby Brissett will be Watson’s backup.

An interesting dynamic to this move is the Browns will open their season against the Carolina Panthers. Instead of Watson vs. Sam Darnold, it could be Jacoby Brissett vs. Mayfield.

Cleveland opened as a (-4.5) point favorite, but that’s down to (-1.5) with a different quarterback matchup. The trade may not have a long-term impact on their odds, but it hurts their chances of winning in Week 1.

Was there a chance that the Browns and Mayfield could’ve worked things out? I’m wondering what happens if Watson’s suspension runs the whole season and Brissett suffers a significant injury.

At that point, it would’ve been nice to have Mayfield. However, it’s likely that ship sailed a while ago. This move is the best course of action for both sides. Mayfield has a chance to start, while Cleveland won’t have the distraction.

There’s no doubt we’ll see more odds movement throughout the 2022 NFL offseason. Check out our sports news page for the latest updates.



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