And I’m not here to talk about the really, really obvious ones. The Republicans have about as much chance in California as a snowball has in hell. Conversely, I would prefer to bet on 2Pac returning from Cuba and starting a new life as a NASCAR driver than I would backing the Democrats to win in Alabama.
Some bets aren’t worth your time, trust me. But what about those that look appealing at first glance, but are best avoided? Yup, these are the ones I’m talking about.
Trump to Win the Popular Vote (+300)
In 2016’s election, Donald Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by the largest margin in history.
Clinton scored 2.9 million votes more at 65,853, 677 (48.2%) to the former reality TV star’s 62,985,153 (45.93%). That’s according to final figures from US Elections Atlas.
Now, if you’re betting on Trump to win the presidency in 2020, you should know that the popular vote doesn’t determine who is victorious. That is up to the Electoral College to decide.
Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections. If you’re betting on the worst-performing president in history to suddenly turn the country around to his favor, please get some fresh air. It will help you…
In order for Trump to win the popular vote, he would need to smash both Texas and California. Got it…
Tell me, at what temperature does a snowball melt in Satan’s palm again?
Biden to Win Texas (+275)
Trump’s margin of 52 percent to Clinton’s 43 percent was enough to secure the Lone Star State for the tenth straight election.
The state has 38 electoral votes, coming just behind California’s 55. After the 2020 Census, it looks as though the state will inherit three more votes which will take it up to 41 in 2024.
Needless to say, this state is massively important to Trump and the Republicans as a whole. We have to go all the way back to Jimmy Carter’s win in 1976 for a Democrat win in the state, so the chances of this changing in 2020 is unlikely.
If Biden wins Texas and Trump wins Minnesota, I will shave my head, paint my skin red, and live as a tomato frog for the rest of my days.
This is not going to happen. Minnesota is blue, and it will remain that way.
In fact, you could put a blue tie on an inanimate carbon rod, and it would still beat Trump.
Biden to Win Arizona (+100)
Bill Clinton’s win in 1996 was the first Democrat victory in Arizona since Harry S. Truman won in 1948.
Arizona has long been a red state, so to think of a guy like Joe Biden changing that is hard to believe. He is certainly no Harry S. Truman, nor a Bill Clinton-type figure.
Yes, but Arizona is unique: it's the only battleground that counts mail votes first *and* won't have a full count done by the end of the night. In this respect, it's the flip side of PA. FL/NC ought to have pretty decent counts at the end of the night. https://t.co/CgynD0gkfU
Much has been made of the lockdown measures in Arizona, with some observers pointing towards Trump’s handling of the health crisis making things hard for him in the state. I don’t believe that to be true and expect Trump to win for the second time in a row.
If Mitt Romney and John McCain beat Barrack Obama two elections running, don’t expect Biden to suddenly sway voters. Regardless of what the polls say.
Better Bets for the 2020 Presidential Election
From grey clouds to blue skies, everyone likes a bit of positivity in the lead up to a presidential election. So, why not check out the best US presidential election bets to shoot a little sunshine into your life?
The team here will be covering a lot of the betting side of the 2020 presidential elections. Additionally, we have some general interest pieces that you might find enjoyable. I have added a list of our most popular pieces, below, but you can find everything you are looking for on our politics blog.