Win Total Predictions for All 30 MLB Teams in 2021

| March 6, 2021 6:12 am PDT
MLB Win Totals 2021

The Dodgers top the MLB win totals chart in a resounding fashion. Installed at a hefty 103.5 games at most online sportsbooks, LA’s win total is the highest we’ve seen since the Yankees in 1999.

To get a glimpse into that particular bet, as well as the lines for the rest of the league, check out my MLB win totals predictions below. It’s worth noting that each team’s “number” isn’t the same at all the sites, so it’s critical to shop the lines before you lock in any bets.

I’ll use the 2021 MLB win totals odds from MyBookie as a reference.

Arizona Diamondbacks Win Total – 75.5

  • 2019 Record: 85-77
  • 2020 Record: 25-35

As tremendous as Zac Gallen was in 2020, Madison Bumgarner was equally as disappointing. Across nine starts, MadBum collected a 6.48 ERA and posted his lowest SO9 ratio (strikeouts per nine innings) in his 12-year career.

The starting rotation leaves fans wanting more, and the batting order is a work in progress. The D-Backs batted .241 as a team last season, and only the Cardinals hit fewer home runs. As good as LA and San Diego are, it’ll be tough for Arizona to accrue a substantial number of wins in the upcoming year.

2021 Prediction: 74-88

Atlanta Braves Win Total – 92.5

  • 2019 Record: 97-65
  • 2020 Record: 35-25

There’s a whole lot to be excited about in Atlanta. Mike Soroka is showing no signs of his Achilles injury thus far in spring training and is eager to rejoin the staff. Getting plugged into a rotation that returns Max Fried and Ian Anderson, not to mention welcomes Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, tells me the Braves mean business.

Assessing the top of the order, you won’t find a better “1-2-3” in the league. Marcell Ozuna nearly won the Triple Crown, Freddie Freeman won the NL MVP, and Ronald Acuna is arguably one of the five best players in baseball.

I suggest heading over to BetUS, where the Braves win total is 91.5. When you get there, slam the over.

2021 Prediction: 96-66

Baltimore Orioles Win Total – 63.5

  • 2019 Record: 54-108
  • 2020 Record: 25-35

Speaking of BetUS, they’ve listed Baltimore’s win total at 64.5 games. I’m latching onto the under as there’s simply nothing appealing about this roster. While New York and Toronto were shelling out cash left and right, want to know what the Orioles did to try and stay competitive?

They signed Freddie Galvis to a one-year deal and claimed Yolmer Sanchez off the waivers.

The situation is so grim in Charm City that signing Felix Hernandez to a minor league deal made headlines. It’s safe to say that the O’s have the most uninspiring pitching staff in the majors.

2021 Prediction: 60-102

Boston Red Sox Win Total – 79.5

  • 2019 Record: 84-78
  • 2020 Record: 24-36

Alex Cora is back, and Chris Sale should factor in sometime this summer, but is that enough? Boston is staring up at the Rays and the Yankees, and the Blue Jays are set to take flight. There are only so many wins to go around the cutthroat AL East.

In terms of why the Red Sox are likely to struggle, it’s not because their lineup is lacking. Alex Verdugo was awesome last season, and Hunter Renfroe is one of my favorite under-the-radar MLB signings in 2021. The issue is the BoSox posted a disastrous 5.58 ERA a season ago, and not much in that regard is expected to change.

2021 Prediction: 77-85

Chicago Cubs Win Total – 80.5

  • 2019 Record: 84-78
  • 2020 Record: 34-26

Zach Davies won’t replace Yu Darvish, but he represents a nice consolation after a brilliant 2020 campaign with the Padres. How much Jake Arrieta has left in the tank is still up in the air, but the Cubbies won 56.7% of their games last year, hitting .220 as a club.

Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo never got on track, and Kris Bryant was so bad that he wasn’t even usable in 14-team fantasy leagues. This trio should all be better in 2021, and Joc Pederson’s arrival gives Chicago some left-handed pop in the latter part of the order.

Regression could be in store, but a massive drop-off is unlikely to take place.

2021 Prediction: 83-79

Chicago White Sox Win Total – 90.5

  • 2019 Record: 72-89
  • 2020 Record: 35-25

The Chi Sox were expected to take a big leap going into last season, and that’s exactly what transpired. Ending an 11-year playoff drought, Chicago tallied a 94-win pace and produced the AL MVP.

Looking ahead to 2021, Jose Abreu is back, as is the entire core of the lineup that generated more home runs than any other team in the American League. Lance Lynn and Liam Hendriks give the staff the boost it was looking for; it all comes down to how well the clubhouse can gel with Tony La Russa.

2021 Prediction: 92-70

Cincinnati Reds Win Total – 83.5

  • 2019 Record: 75-87
  • 2020 Record: 31-29

Losing Trevor Bauer stings, especially considering spending $1.5 million to lure in Sean Doolittle, was all Cincinnati did to compensate. The Reds have life in the form of Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, and Tejay Antone has an opportunity to be one of MLB’s breakout players in 2021. Tyler Mahle is the x-factor coming off 60 strikeouts in 47.2 innings.

Should things pan out with the back-end of the rotation, the window to contend is still in the forefront. Having said that, battling to stay above .500 seems like a more likely scenario.

2021 Prediction: 79-83

Cleveland Indians Win Total – 80.5

  • 2019 Record: 93-69
  • 2020 Record: 35-25

Anchored by the reigning Cy Young Award winner, Cleveland’s pitching staff quietly yielded the lowest ERA in the AL. Triston McKenzie steps in for the departed Carlos Carrasco, while the acquisition of Eddie Rosario solidifies left field.

Among the best MLB win totals to bet on in 2021, get over to MyBookie and lock the Indians in for over 80.5 victories. Here’s a squad that averaged 95 wins between 2016-2019, winning at least 91 games every year during that stretch. On a similar pace in 2020, Terry Francona has won at least half of his games in each of his eight years manning the Tribe’s dugout.

2021 Prediction: 86-76

Colorado Rockies Win Total – 63.5

  • 2019 Record: 71-91
  • 2020 Record: 26-34

Trading Nolan Arenado for a slew of prospects confirms that Colorado is pushing full-steam ahead toward a rebuild. Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon can only do so much for a team that sported the worst ERA in all of the National League in 2019 and 2020.

Sure, German Marquez has a nasty arsenal of pitches, but Kyle Freeland continued free-falling, and Jon Gray can’t be trusted. Losing 100 games is a very genuine possibility for the 2021 Rockies.

2021 Prediction: 63-99

Detroit Tigers Win Total – 65.5

  • 2019 Record: 47-114
  • 2020 Record: 23-35

Before you get excited about pulling the trigger on the Tigers winning fewer than 66 games, be aware of MLB win totals at all of the safest betting sites. For example, Detroit’s win total is 66.5 at BetUS and 67.5 at BetOnline.

The Tigers haven’t won more than 64 regular-season games since 2016, something that can be traced back to insufficient pitching and an underwhelming group of hitters. In desperate need of depth on the mound, inking the likes of Julio Teheran, Jose Urena, and Derek Holland hardly moves the needle.

2021 Prediction: 64-98

Houston Astros Win Total – 87.5

  • 2019 Record: 107-55
  • 2020 Record: 29-31

Houston extended Michael Brantley and swiped Pedro Baez from the Dodgers, but projecting 87.5 wins seems a bit high for a franchise still in shambles. I’ll concede that the AL West is the weakest division in baseball, but that was the case in 2020, and the Astros finished below .500.

Justin Verlander won’t be around to save the day, and nothing indicates Jose Altuve or Alex Bregman will be able to get on track. Kyle Tucker is a bright spot who can provide a big lift for the ’Stros, but restoring a lineup that lost George Springer is a lot easier said than done.

2021 Prediction: 85-77

Kansas City Royals Win Total – 71.5

  • 2019 Record: 59-103
  • 2020 Record: 26-34

We’ve addressed a few teams that lost a lot more talent than what was brought in to replace. Fortunately for the fan base in Kansas City, the Royals are on the other end of that spectrum.

  • Losses: Matt Harvey, Ian Kennedy, Maikel Franco, Franchy Cordero
  • Additions: Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi, Mike Minor, Michael Taylor, Hanser Alberto

Quite the tradeoff if you ask me.

Whit Merrifield is one of the most underrated players in the league, and Salvador Perez is coming off winning his third Silver Slugger in his last four seasons. Don’t look now, but KC is a team on the uptick.

2021 Prediction: 75-87

Los Angeles Angels Win Total – 82.5

  • 2019 Record: 72-90
  • 2020 Record: 26-34

After getting his feet wet in 2020, Joe Maddon’s impact in Anaheim should take full effect in 2021. Thanks to the assertiveness from Perry Minasian, the former Braves assistant general manager who was hired in November to be the Halos GM, Maddon has the tools necessary to compete for a division title.

  • Acquired via Trade: Dexter Fowler, Raisel Iglesias, Alex Cobb, Jose Iglesias
  • Acquired via Free Agency: Jose Quintana, Kurt Suzuki, Juan Lagares

One of my bold MLB predictions is that Jared Walsh – not Mike Trout or Anthony Rendon – ends up leading the Angels in homers.

2021 Prediction: 85-77

Los Angeles Dodgers Win Total – 103.5

  • 2019 Record: 106-56
  • 2020 Record: 43-17

As silly as a 103.5-game win total sounds on the surface, you can argue that it’s too low considering how robust this roster is. 149-73 since the start of 2019, and now LA adds the defending Cy Young champ that pushes Clayton Kershaw to the #3 slot in the rotation.

The scary part is as spirited as their staff is, the Dodgers lineup is more-or-less a makeshift NL All-Star squad. Mookie Bets led all batters in WAR in 2020, Corey Seager regained his confidence, and the front office still found room to re-sign Justin Turner at the hot corner.

Los Angeles is as close to shoo-in to win triple-digit games as an MLB team can be.

2021 Prediction: 101-61

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Miami Marlins Win Total – 72.5

  • 2019 Record: 57-105
  • 2020 Record: 31-29

Emerging out of oblivion to finish 2nd in the NL East, Miami not only qualified for the 2020 postseason, they wound up sweeping the Cubs in the Wild Card round. And yet, the bookies aren’t buying that the Marlins can maintain their ascension in 2021.

Ranging from 71-5.-73.5 wins depending on which of the MLB betting sites you’re looking at, I don’t see much value on either side. However, if the young arms on Don Mattingly’s staff continue on their upward trajectories, the Fish could be a threat to capture one of the NL wild card slots.

2021 Prediction: 72-90

Milwaukee Brewers Win Total – 82.5

  • 2019 Record: 89-73
  • 2020 Record: 29-31

Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are proven commodities on the mound, and there’s no way Christian Yelich is going to hit .205 again. Throw in newcomer Kolton Wong, and the Brewers have enough to piece it together. I anticipate they’ll be hovering as a buyer when the Trade Deadline rolls around.

On the flip side, what should deter the “Beermakers” from gaining much traction is a batting order with capped production. Milwaukee ended 2020, ranked 26th in runs scored and 26th in team batting average.

2021 Prediction: 81-81

Minnesota Twins Win Total – 88.5

  • 2019 Record: 101-61
  • 2020 Record: 36-24

Forget about this team’s failures in the postseason and lock into the recent data. With Rocco Baldelli at the helm, the Twins have won an impressive 61.8% of their regular-season games.

After agreeing to terms to bring back Nelson Cruz and plucking J.A. Happ from the Yankees, 88.5 games seems awfully low for this MLB win total. My gut tells me the Twinkies won’t catch the White Sox, but Minny should win plenty of games to have a shot at rewriting their history in October.

2021 Prediction: 91-71

New York Mets Win Total – 89.5

  • 2019 Record: 86-76
  • 2020 Record: 26-34

Before you fall victim to all the hype about the Mets, this is an organization that has racked up 90+ victories just once since 2007. Securing Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco are major pluses, but I’m yet to be convinced there’s enough pitching behind deGrom and Carrasco to seriously challenge the Braves for supremacy in the NL East.

When push comes to shove, battling tooth and nail with the Nationals and Phillies for the 2nd -slot in the division feels like a more logical outcome.

2021 Prediction: 84-78

New York Yankees Win Total – 95.5

  • 2019 Record: 103-59
  • 2020 Record: 33-27

Aaron Boone’s revamped pitching staff bodes well for this team’s chances in 2021. Jameson Taillon and Corey Kluber take over for J.A. Happ and James Paxton, and Domingo German returns after a lengthy suspension.

Retaining D.J. LeMahieu was crucial, and it sounds like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have taken up yoga in hopes of increasing their suppleness. Tampa Bay isn’t going away, and the Toronto is on the rise, but the Bronx Bombers still figure to be the class of the AL East.

Nevertheless, betting on the Yankees win total in 2021 isn’t so clear-cut. As good as the NYY are, exceeding 95 wins is an extremely tall order.

2021 Prediction: 96-66

Oakland Athletics Win Total – 86.5

  • 2019 Record: 97-65
  • 2020 Record: 36-24

97 wins in 2018, 97 wins in 2019, and a 97-win pace in 2020. Losing Marcus Semien and Liam Hendriks should count for something, but Elvis Andrus is a suitable replacement at SS, and Trevor Rosenthal is more than capable of filling the void at closer.

Signing Mitch Moreland gives Oakland an insurance policy for Matt Olson, and Jesus Luzardo is only going to get better. The Astros and Angels may give the Athletics a run for the money, but I’m pegging the A’s to win the AL West Division. In all likelihood, that’ll require winning more than 87 games.

2021 Prediction: 89-73

Philadelphia Phillies Win Total – 81.5

  • 2019 Record: 81-81
  • 2020 Record: 28-32

Losing seven of eight games down the stretch cost the Phillies mightily, but Joe Girardi’s pedigree for managing winning teams won’t suddenly go away. He’ll need Vince Velasquez and to bring more to the table as a starter, but a bevy of bullpen acquisitions takes some of the pressure away.

Phillies New Bullpen Toys in 2021
Name Acquired Via: Expected Role Last Team
Archie Bradley Free Agency Closer Reds
Jose Alvarado Trade Setup Rays
Brandon Kintzler Free Agency Setup Marlins
Tony Watson Free Agency Mid Relief Giants
Chase Anderson Free Agency Long Relief Blue Jays

We know how gifted Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto are, but don’t be shocked if Alec Bohm is the guy who’s turning heads in the City of Brotherly Love.

2021 Prediction: 85-77

Pittsburgh Pirates Win Total – 58.5

  • 2019 Record: 69-93
  • 2020 Record: 19-41

Pittsburgh traded their best hitter (Josh Bell) to Washington. They traded their best pitcher (Jameson Taillon) to New York, bringing their total payroll in 2021 to a minuscule $41.7 million. That’s nearly $200 million less than the Dodgers.

While the Cardinals and Cubs were making noise in the winter, all the Pirates did was sign Tyler Anderson and purchase Dustin Fowler’s contract. Sorry fans in Steel City, inviting Todd Frazier to spring training doesn’t make a difference. Sadly, Buccos fans can strap in for a long and disappointing year.

2021 Prediction: 58-104

San Diego Padres Win Total – 95.5

  • 2019 Record: 70-92
  • 2020 Record: 37-23

Trent Grisham sets the table for Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado, and everything else falls in line. The Padres batting order will be among the most potent in baseball, that’s a given.

Thanks to A.J. Preller getting greedy in the offseason, the Friars are also nipping at the Dodger’s heels when it comes to the best pitching rotations in the MLB. And that’s without the services of Mike Clevinger, and that’s not even accounting for the potential of MacKenzie Gore.

San Diego has a trio of legitimate aces and a genuine supporting cast. Aside from the Braves, the Padres appear to be the only sincere threat standing in the way of the Dodgers claiming another pennant. 

2021 Prediction: 96-66

San Francisco Giants Win Total – 75.5

  • 2019 Record: 77-85
  • 2020 Record: 29-31

 I love the addition of Tommy La Stella, but I don’t love it enough to endorse the over for this MLB win total. The 4-8 hitters are murky at best, and nothing energizes me about a bunch of starters in their 30s who are seemingly overpaid.

SF had to cough up $18.9 million to prevent Kevin Gausman from bolting town, while Johnny Cueto is penciled in to earn $21 million in 2021. In short, Gabe Kapler’s going to have his hands full trying to surpass 75 wins.

2021 Prediction: 73-89

Seattle Mariners Win Total – 71.5

  • 2019 Record: 68-94
  • 2020 Record: 27-33

The Mariners aren’t going to scare anyone in the AL West, but don’t expect them to be the bottom-dweller in this division. They didn’t lose any significant pieces from their 2020 roster (sorry, Dee Gordon, you’re washed), and they get Mitch Haniger back after he missed all of last season.

James Paxton is back in Seattle seeking a fresh start, while Ty France is a terrific utility player affording the M’s all sorts of flexibility. Look for Kyle Lewis to build on his ROY campaign, and don’t be surprised if Dylan Moore finishes the year as one of the 10 best fantasy second basemen.

I like the over here as 70 wins feel like a pretty safe floor.

2021 Prediction: 74-88

St. Louis Cardinals Win Total – 87.5

  • 2019 Record: 91-71
  • 2020 Record: 30-28

I think the Cardinals could end up running away with the NL Central, and that means toppling 87 wins with plenty of room to spare. Dylan Carlson started to blossom late in 2020, and his development should take full flight in 2021, hitting behind Goldschmidt and Arenado in the order.

Jack Flaherty and Kwang Hyun Kim lead a sturdy starting five, but it’s the bullpen in St. Louis that acts as the backbone of this club. Between Andrew Miller and Alex Reyes, Mike Shildt had the luxury of choosing between two top-flight arms to finish out the ninth inning. Now he’s got three choices thanks to the impending return of Jordan Hicks and his 102-mph sinker.

2021 Prediction: 93-69

Tampa Bay Rays Win Total – 86.5

  • 2019 Record: 96-66
  • 2020 Record: 40-20

Trading Blake Snell and letting Charlie Morton walk were curbed by fetching Rich Hill and Chris Archer in February. This comes after signing Michael Wacha in mid-December. Remember, Tyler Glasnow struck out a whopping 91 batters in 57.1 innings, Ryan Yarbrough was dependable, and Kevin Cash does a masterful job utilizing his well-rounded bullpen.

Tampa isn’t going away, but keeping pace with New York and Toronto could take some heroics. Then again, watching Randy Arozarena perform in October reminds us to never count the Rays out.

2021 Prediction: 88-74

Texas Rangers Win Total – 67.5

  • 2019 Record: 78-84
  • 2020 Record: 22-38

From top to bottom, it’s tough to find a more depleted roster in baseball. Joey Gallo can hit home runs, and the Rangers snatched David Dahl at a good price, but this team strikes out way too much, and they suffer from stability.

Case in point, Texas boasted a 5.02 ERA and hit a putrid .217 as a club. They were the only team in the AL with an on-base % under .300.

Trading Lance Lynn for Dane Dunning could prove to be beneficial in the long run, but it’s a downgrade if you focus specifically on their aspirations in 2021.

2021 Prediction: 65-97

Toronto Blue Jays Win Total – 87.5

  • 2019 Record: 67-95
  • 2020 Record: 32-28

Talk about an MLB team whose stock is rising fast, the Blue Jays did everything in their power in the offseason to keep the ball rolling. After garnering a ton of momentum in 2020, Ross Atkins dished out top-dollar to bring George Springer on board. He spent $18 million on Marcus Semien, traded for Steven Matz, and went to great lengths to ensure the bullpen was shored up (signed Kirby Yates, Tyler Chatwood, David Phelps).

Guys like Robbie Ray and Nate Pearson have a little more margin for error thanks to Toronto rolling out one of the top-ranked lineups in the MLB.

2021 Prediction: 90-72

Washington Nationals Win Total – 84.5

  • 2019 Record: 93-69
  • 2020 Record: 26-34

Easily one of my favorite MLB win totals to bet on in 2021. The hangover from winning the 2019 World Series spilled over to 2020, but Dave Martinez has hit the reset button, and Mike Rizzo has replenished the roster.

The middle of the order was beefed up by way of acquiring Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber. The pitching staff gained a trusty southpaw in Jon Lester, and Stephen Strasburg is back after numbness in his right hand limited him to just five innings last season.

Assuming Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin are sharper in 2021, the Nats should approach 90 wins and be in the thick of the wild card conversation.

2021 Prediction: 89-73

Betting MLB Win Totals in 2021

It’s imperative that you shop the odds for MLB win totals before locking anything in. Aside from the juice being dissimilar, the win totals themselves aren’t always consistent.

Discrepancies as much as two full games can be found by rummaging through multiple sites. For instance, why bet on the Orioles winning fewer than 63.5 games at MyBookie when Baltimore’s win total is 64.5 at BetUS?

Note that the pricing will fluctuate from now until April 1st. If you know, one of these 2021 MLB win totals sparks your interest, place the bet now and don’t look back. Hopefully, in about seven months’ time, you’ll be getting ready to cash your ticket.

Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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