Wild Card NFL DFS Picks and Advice for January 10, 2021
I’ve broken ground on the 2021 NFL playoffs. If you want to bet on the first round of playoff games, get your process started with my look at the early 2021 NFL Wild Card odds.
Should you be here for NFL DFS picks and other daily fantasy advice, I’ve obviously got you covered there, too. This post is about the Sunday slate only, though.
You have three games to work with, just like on Saturday. But, who should you play, and who can you fade? I break it all down in my NFL DFS picks, sleepers, and lineup help for January 10.
Top NFL DFS Picks for January 10
- Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens ($7.8k)
- Derrick Henry, RB, Titans ($9.2k)
- Michael Thomas, WR, Saints ($6.3k)
- Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens ($5.2k)
- New Orleans Saints Defense ($3.8k)
No quarterback on Sunday’s Wild Card NFL DFS slate offers the floor or upside Jackson does. I think Ryan Tannehill is pretty good exposure to this game at $1.2k cheaper, and Drew Brees at home is always going to be on the table.
Those guys are cheaper but far less stable. I’d reserve them for GPPs only, and I’d still lean toward Jackson in all formats. He wasn’t amazing against the Titans last time, but from a DFS perspective, he shredded them in the playoffs last year.
Tennessee’s defense has also just been way worse this year. The Titans have allowed Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson to go off in successive weeks while they closed out the year, allowing the second-most passing scores (36).
This is the game to target as a whole, and you better believe the Titans will ride Derrick Henry. The guy just topped 2,000 rushing yards, after all.
Derrick Henry: 2,027 rushing yards (5th most EVER)— PFF (@PFF) January 5, 2021
More than 22 NFL teams this season pic.twitter.com/HdMPXE09Wz
Henry has a very good history against the Ravens, as he abused them in an upset win in the playoffs last year and then hung 133 yards and a clutch overtime score on them this season.
Lamar and Henry are borderline locks for me across all NFL DFS lineups for Sunday, but they’ll be popular. If you’re entering a ton of teams, you can toy with fading one or both if you want to be different, but for the most part, we need these guys.
Wide receiver isn’t so cut and dry on this slate. A.J. Brown and Allen Robinson should be totally fine – if not great – but I just like the value with Thomas. His price is absurd for a guy who is capable of dropping a 10-100-1 stat line in his sleep.
Chicago isn’t a very good matchup for number one receivers, but it’s the playoffs, and Thomas will be going to work on the turf. Just make sure he’s ready to rock after missing the last three weeks with an ankle issue.
Andrews is the top tight end this week, and he leads the way if you’re looking for NFL DFS picks for the Sat-Sun slate (thanks for dropping it late, DraftKings). Jared Cook is a fine pivot, but I don’t really love him unless Thomas is randomly out or limited.
The Saints look like the best defense to rely on. They’re not cheap, but they’re at home, they’re big favorites according to the best NFL sportsbooks, and Chicago’s offense turned back into a pumpkin last week.
NFL DFS Sleepers for Sunday
- Drew Brees, QB, Saints ($5.7k)
- Kareem Hunt, RB, Browns ($4.8k)
- Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears ($3.9k)
- Jonnu Smith, TE, Titans ($3.2k)
- Cleveland Browns Defense ($2.5k)
I am fine with paying for Jackson, but in tournaments, it could pay to get different. The Bears still have a solid defense, but they got torched by Aaron Rodgers in two games this year.
The yardage hasn’t been crazy, but Chicago has still allowed 28 passing scores in 2020. If the Saints can be efficient (and get their top passing weapons back), Brees could be a little sneaky here.
Ty Montgomery stands out as the obvious running back sleeper in the event Alvin Kamara doesn’t suit up. If Kamara is in (and I think he will be), you can just go up to Hunt, who isn’t very pricey despite a solid role and a pretty respectable floor.
Hunt’s matchup isn’t amazing, but he could still crush this price tag, whether he becomes active as a receiver playing from behind or is part of the Browns running all over Pittsburgh and dominating this game.
Mooney is probably my favorite NFL DFS value play for Sunday. He got hurt last week, but he also balled out, hauling in 11 of 13 targets for 93 yards. With Marshon Lattimore surely focused on slowing down Allen Robinson, I anticipate another big outing for Mooney if he can suit up.
Tight end is awful, but Smith offers crazy upside for his price tag. He isn’t safe, but he did drop 12 fantasy points on Baltimore earlier this year, and this game could turn into a shootout.
The Browns are an awesome punt defense, much like Washington if you read Saturday’s NFL DFS Wild Card picks breakdown. Cleveland has a solid pass rush and a good run defense, and they know the Steelers can’t run.
Obviously, Ben Roethlisberger could just carve them up, but he’s also turned the ball over a lot lately. The Steelers are also just 1-4 following an 11-0 start. Are the Browns on the verge of a huge upset?
Maybe, but definitely keep tabs on a developing COVID-19 situation.
My Favorite NFL DFS Lineup for January 10
- QB: Lamar Jackson – Ravens ($7.8k)
- RB: Derrick Henry – Titans ($9.2k)
- RB: Kareem Hunt – Browns ($4.8k)
- WR: Michael Thomas – Saints ($6.3k)
- WR: Darnell Mooney – Bears ($3.9k)
- WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster – Steelers ($5.5k)
- TE: Mark Andrews – Ravens ($5.2k)
- FLEX: Corey Davis – Titans ($4.8k)
- DEF: Cleveland Browns ($2.5k)
Jackson and Henry don’t need much of a sales pitch. They’re the top two NFL DFS picks to consider on Sunday, and nobody else really comes all that close.
The Browns situation is relatively fluid, and you do need to keep tabs on who the Saints do or don’t have on Sunday. That could change my final NFL DFS lineup quite a bit, depending on how things shake out.
For now, I expect the Saints and Browns to have all of their regular guys. Cleveland will be without their head coach, of course.
#Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is asymptomatic. He will coach virtually during week for #Steelers but must miss the game. TE coach Drew Petzing and DB coach Jeff Howard must sit. 1 of the 2 new players who tested positive is significant https://t.co/JY40WOWPsc— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) January 5, 2021
Kareem Hunt is a good value, either way. He could be part of a dominant running game, or he can rack up catches as the Browns trail.
I also think Thomas is too cheap. Andrews is a fine stacking option with Jackson, although you can also consider Marquise Brown or just rolling Lamar out there naked. Tight end is just bad, is the thing.
Mooney is a sweet value. Hopefully, he suits up. JuJu should also be active, and Cleveland’s weakness is their pass defense. Even if the Steelers choke, I think his PPR value makes him a fine play.
Corey Davis is pretty cheap, given his upside and the explosive game he’s part of. A.J. Brown is the safer play, but if Brown is going to be high-owned, I’ll gladly fade and go with Davis.
Cleveland makes this lineup possible. Are the Browns for sure going to win this week? No, and not having their head coach on hand certainly complicates things.
That said, the Browns will be highly motivated, they know the Steelers well, and Pittsburgh has looked like a fraud over the last five weeks. Cleveland can also get sacks and turnovers even in a loss, while the salary relief is the big selling point here, anyway.
NFL Wild Card Betting Advice for Sunday
There won’t always be a direct correlation between NFL DFS picks and how you might want to bet on the NFL. I do tend to build NFL DFS lineups with game flow and my personal bets in mind, though.
For Sunday’s Wild Card games, I see the Saints winning, but one of my safest 2021 Wild Card picks is the Bears keeping it closer than expected.
The other two games, to me, are wide open. The COVID-19 news really works against the Browns, but it also furthers the argument that Cleveland simply has nothing to lose.
The Browns honestly look pretty good in this matchup, and they’re among my 2021 NFL Wild Card upset picks. This is going to be a wild weekend in general, but the craziest stuff might come on Sunday.
Hopefully, you can parlay the NFL DFS picks into some cash, or maybe you can use that same logic and apply it to some bets. Whatever you do, I wish you luck. Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy the games!