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Why Patrick Mahomes Can Win the Super Bowl 55 MVP

| February 4, 2021 5:30 am PDT
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 2021 MVP Betting

Someone will be crowned the MVP of Super Bowl 55 once the dust settles. With the best Super Bowl 55 betting apps projecting this to be a high-scoring and competitive game, logic suggests an offensive player will claim the honor.

History says that, too.

One look at past Super Bowl MVP winners tells us it’s a guy from the winning team, as well, while a quarterback is also the likely recipient.

But is that how you should actually bet? Michael Wynn broke the wager down recently and handed out his 2021 Super Bowl MVP predictions, but now it’s my turn.

Here’s a breakdown of why Patrick Mahomes can win the Super Bowl 55 MVP award.

Super Bowl Betting Sites Favor Mahomes

The latest Super Bowl 55 MVP odds point to Patrick Mahomes as the likely winner this year.

That alone doesn’t guarantee anything, but it never hurts for the consensus – or the top online betting sites – to recognize you as a clear threat.

Mahomes has the best odds no matter where you plan on betting on the 2021 Super Bowl. You may want to shop around for the best price, of course.

Here’s a quick update of his most recent odds to win the SB 55 MVP.

Betting Site Mahomes’ MVP Odds
BetUs -130
MyBookie -125
Bovada -120
BetNow -140
BetOnline -115

Pricing is subject to change, but Mahomes being the favorite, probably won’t.

If you think that’s a good omen for his chances of winning, you can save yourself some time (and money) and hop on the best Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP odds now.

For now, the best odds rest at BetOnline, but all of the sites above are great spots to bet on Super Bowl 55.

Not sure where to bet on Super Bowl 55, or how? Check out this Super Bowl 2021 betting guide to get started.

Kansas City is Favored to Win SB 55

Mahomes is the favorite to win the Super Bowl 55 MVP because his team is favored to win, too.

It’s probably more than just being favored, as most expect the Chiefs to win.

Talk to 100 experts, and 99 will come back and tell you Kansas City is the better team. They went 14-2 during the regular season, they won the Super Bowl last year, and they’re flat out special.

Beating the Chiefs isn’t easy. Just look at last year’s insane playoff run, where they dug themselves massive holes in every single game yet won them all.

Opponent Deficit Result
Texans 24-0 W, 51-31
Titans 10-0 W, 35-24
49ers 20-10 W, 31-20

The Chiefs usually just dominate games, but during last year’s playoff run, they allowed teams to get up on them. They overcame 10-point holes in each of those contests, detailing just how hard it is to eliminate this team.

Kansas City was favored in the Super Bowl last year and won, even though they faced a nasty 49ers defense. Tampa Bay’s defense is quite aggressive and a lot to handle upfront, but the matchup is actually way better this time around.

Bettors know how bad this matchup can get for the Bucs, too. Kansas City torched the Buccaneers through the air back in week 12 and held on for a 27-24 win.

The Chiefs are also 8-0 on the road, this year, and Mahomes has just one loss in his last 26 meaningful games.

Betting against Kansas City may take some guts ahead of Super Bowl 55.

And if you’re acknowledging, they’re probably going to win and think Mahomes won’t be the main reason why you may be taking on even more risk.

Mahomes Dominated in This Matchup Already

I touched on the destruction the Chiefs bestowed on the Bucs earlier this year, but it’s time for specifics.

Mahomes flat out abused this Tampa Bay secondary, and top weapon Tyreek Hill was used early and often.

It was so easy for those two that Travis Kelce wasn’t called upon as much as he normally is, and Mahomes really didn’t need to find other guys to get the job done.

Will Hill roam so freely again? It’s arguable he could, as Tampa Bay has remained vulnerable in the secondary, and top cover man Carlton Davis has not been much better in the playoffs.

Actually, that’s pretty awful, now that I think about it.

Even if Davis shows signs of life and fares better against Hill than he did back in week 12, I doubt he completely shuts him down, and that’d probably just see Kelce’s role grow.

The other big thing is Mahomes isn’t phased by pressure, and he’s masterful in the face of blitzes.

Tampa Bay’s only hope of slowing him down is to rattle him and force him into mistakes, yet I don’t think that’s very feasible.

With a loaded supporting cast and a rare coolness under pressure, Mahomes should again feast.

If you agree, consider making some coin off of Mahomes in this spot with a slew of Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 55 prop bets.

Quarterbacks Dominate the Super Bowl MVP Award

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. The Super Bowl MVP, understandably so, usually goes to said quarterbacks.

It’s not that quarterbacks are just the face of the team (and league). It’s that they play such a crucial role in the outcome of each game. Without their decision-making and playmaking, teams struggle to score – let alone move the ball consistently.

It still takes a stellar performance to win the Super Bowl MVP, of course.

Quarterbacks usually don’t win this award if they don’t play well. They also don’t win MVP if they’re overshadowed greatly by a running back or their defense.

But more often than not, quarterbacks do claim the Super Bowl MVP. To see it a bit more clearly, here’s a look at the positions that have won the last 54 Super Bowls.

Position Super Bowl MVPs Won
Quarterback 30
Running Back 7
Wide Receiver 7
Linebacker 4
Defensive End 2
Safety 2
Defensive Tackle 1
Cornerback 1
Kick Returner 1

Long-term Super Bowl history reveals that quarterbacks are the alarming favorite to win the MVP award.

Recent history shows that, too, with passers being named the big game’s Most Valuable Player seven times in the last 10 Super Bowls.

Beyond just the reality that the winning quarterback is a good bet to win the Super Bowl MVP, there is more logic that goes into this decision for bettors.

If you’re not betting on Mahomes or Tom Brady, then who deserves your financial backing?

Does either side have a running back capable of being so dominant that they overshadow both passing games? Leonard Fournette, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, and Ronald Jones II are your culprits, and at first glance, I’d lean towards “no.”

Wide receiver is much more viable in a game with a 56 total that includes two top-5 offenses, and the league’s #1 ranked passing game.

The guy that stands out is Tyreek Hill.

His success would stem from Mahomes, though, and he’d have to greatly outshine Mahomes to steal the trophy.

As for defense, this is in play if you think one side just rises up and completely shuts down one of these high-powered offenses.

Thinking about going that route? Maybe consider comparing the defenses in Super Bowl 55 first.

Which Super Bowl Team Has the Best Defense in 2021 - Kansas City or Tampa Bay?

Super Bowl 55 projects as a shootout. The top Super Bowl 2021 betting sites set it up with a 56 game total, and it’s a game featuring Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. These two icons combined for 78 regular season passing scores and 25 wins. Their teams...

Read More

Of course, it isn’t as simple as assuming one defense is better than the other. You still need to pick the right defensive player that stands out, and their performance needs to be special.

Whatever defensive player you want to bet on would also have to post elite stats, possibly score a touchdown, and have his team’s offense be less than dominant.

It’s not crazy to think outside the box here, but history and logic still point to a quarterback winning the Super Bowl MVP. In this year’s game, that’s none other than Mahomes.

Narrative is a Heck of a Thing

The other big reason why Patrick Mahomes can win the Super Bowl 55 award is the fact that narratives sell.

This game isn’t just about the Chiefs and Buccaneers. It’s being sold as an iconic tilt between the GOAT and the young whippersnapper who wants his legacy.

Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes is the main storyline here and provided both of these superstar quarterbacks play well, the guy who wins is a near-lock to win Super Bowl MVP.

People may not always like that quarterbacks are what sell pro football, but it’s the reality. If Mahomes comes out and has a big game – and the Chiefs live up to being billed as the favorite – this award is as good as his.

Mahomes can be great and lose, of course. If you think that happens, you may want to build a list of reasons why Tom Brady could win the Super Bowl 55 MVP.

Will Patrick Mahomes Win Super Bowl MVP?

I think the evidence in support of Mahomes being the pick is overwhelming. He dominated the Buccaneers the first time he met them this year, and he’s set up to do something similar again.

Mahomes is among the many reasons why the Chiefs will win Super Bowl 55, and it’d take a weird outcome to keep him from claiming this award.

Last year’s Super Bowl MVP was Mahomes, and it was arguable he wasn’t even all that deserving of the award. Instead, running back Damien Williams probably should have won.

To be frank, there are a lot of instances when the wrong player won Super Bowl MVP, and that is probably one of them.

But if Mahomes could win the MVP in that game, just imagine how much of a lock he is if he rolls like he did the first time he faced Tampa Bay?

To be fair, there are no guarantees – in sports betting or in life – but Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the Super Bowl 2021 MVP and for good reason.

For all of the reasons above (and probably more), he’s my pick to win the award this year. If you agree, now is the time to pounce on that bet at your favorite Super Bowl betting sites.

Mahomes to win MVP is just one of many ways to bet on the big game, of course. For more Super Bowl prop betting advice, check out some of the posts below.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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