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Why the Kansas City Chiefs Will Win the 2021 Super Bowl

| January 28, 2021 5:24 am PDT
Why the Kansas City Chiefs Will Win Super Bowl 55

The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2021 Super Bowl as the favorite to win for the second year in a row.

Automatically, you don’t need to look very far from a good reason to bet on the Chiefs to win it all.

Patrick Mahomes is a baller, the Chiefs went 14-2, and they easily took care of a good Bills team in the AFC title game. All signs point to another title for the Chiefs, but a wandering eye (and anyone looking for elite betting value) still creates some doubt.

Not convinced KC is the right bet when eyeing wagers at the best Super Bowl 2021 betting apps? Join me for a look at eight reasons why the Kansas City Chiefs will win Super Bowl 55.

The Chiefs are Favored

Let’s get the ball rolling with the most obvious of reasons why the Kansas City Chiefs will win Super Bowl 55; because the odds favor them too.

Pricing is key for any bettor, though. Do yourself a favor and check out the early Super Bowl 55 odds, and gauge both the best prices and how the lines move.

Anyone who bets on sports knows that the odds aren’t necessarily “saying” they’ll win, nor that favourites always come out on top. However, those odds are that way for a reason.

In this case, the Chiefs simply look like the better team.

Their road to Super Bowl 55 wasn’t any more difficult than Tampa Bay’s, and the Buccaneers get the first home game in a Super Bowl in league history. But Kansas City won it all last year, went 14-2 during the regular season, took out a very good Bills team (convincingly so), and had the league’s best passing offense.

Kansas City has their warts, but they’re mild, and the top Super Bowl 2021 betting sites correctly list them as the favorite.

Throughout history, that’s been a solid place to be when looking at the Super Bowl. The Chiefs won as the favorites last season, and Super Bowl favorites have gone 36-18 in the previous 54 Super Bowls.

Already sold on betting on the Chiefs? Just make sure you know how and where to bet on Super Bowl 55 before placing a bet anywhere.

The Chiefs Have Been Here Before

I know, this probably feels like a weird argument to make with Tom Brady standing on the other side. He just reached his 10th Super Bowl, after all.

But not many other members of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have made it this far.

Well, not many players that will actually have an impact on Super Bowl 55, that is. Here’s the full list of Buccaneers that have at least appeared in a Super Bowl before.

  • Tom Brady
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • LeSean McCoy
  • Steve McLendon
  • Kenjon Barner
  • Shaq Barrett
  • Ndamukong Suh
  • Jason Pierre-Paul
  • Antonio Brown

It’s not a shortlist at first glance, but only six of those players really matter for this game. Antonio Brown, who missed the NFC title game due to injury, maybe out or limited.

I did highlight Barrett as one of the key players that will decide Super Bowl 2021, and the other guys I listed above certainly are impactful.

But is it enough?

Brady instilled the belief that this team could make a title run, and here they are. However, only a few of Tampa Bay’s defensive players have played in a game this big, and only Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown (if he plays) offer high-level experience along with Brady on offense.

Kansas City, meanwhile, has collectively appeared in three straight AFC title games and won it all last year. They then returned basically their entire roster from a season ago.

Not only do the Chiefs have more overall experience in this type of setting, but they also arguably have better chemistry.

Kansas City’s Team Dynamic is Better

Okay, I’ll give you that while the Buccaneers have fewer former Super Bowl attendees in number, they do have some difference-makers, and Brady’s experience alone could make that point a wash.

But something else the Buccaneers don’t have that Kansas City has is true team unity.

That isn’t to say the Bucs don’t love each other, believe in each other, and can rally for the greater good. But they also, at times, feel like a collection of spare parts. Those spare parts are actually closer to elite in many regards, but it hasn’t always made for a cohesive model.

Head coach Bruce Arians is a bit rough around the edges, and he’s ruffled some feathers during his time in the league. Few players are more volatile than Antonio Brown, and Tom Brady is known for his pouting and yelling on the sidelines when things aren’t going as expected.

The Chiefs? They’re perhaps the best team in the face of adversity. They never seem to be down, and they surely are never fully out.

NFL fans caught a glimpse of this in full effect during the AFC title game, where numerous players supported wide receiver Mecole Hardman after an early fumble.

Not only did Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce come to Hardman’s aid, but the coaching staff clearly went right back to their offensive weapon, making him a key part of a scoring drive.

There’s also the crop of evidence from last year’s title run. Kansas City was done in every single playoff game – including the Super Bowl – and they rallied each time.

Can Kansas City be beaten? Sure. But their spirit is relentless, and as a team, they are impenetrable from a mental perspective. When comparing the two sides, I’m not so sure it’s as easy to say that about the Buccaneers.

Patrick Mahomes is Really Good

It never hurts to have the best player in the league. If you’re not willing to go that far, at least agree that Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback the NFL has to offer.

Not there yet? Okay, at least give me that his career trajectory is off the charts.

Mahomes has been in the NFL for four years, and he’s played in three as a full-time starter. During that stretch, he’s piled up 114 passing touchdowns, just 24 picks, and over 14,000 passing yards.

That run includes an NFL record 50 touchdowns in 2018, a league MVP, three trips to the AFC Championship game, and a Super Bowl victory.

He has specifically been unstoppable come playoff time.

Mahomes hasn’t done it all by himself, of course, but he’s consistently dominated opposing defenses and seems to always have the Chiefs in a position to get a win.

Tampa Bay saw firsthand what he’s capable of, too, as he torched this defense for 462 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in a 27-24 win back in week 12.

On the year, Mahomes topped 4,700 passing yards with 38 touchdowns and six picks while leading the Chiefs to a 14-1 record as a starter (16-1 including playoffs).

He sat out week 17 to rest but otherwise could have had 40+ touchdowns and 5,000+ passing yards for the second time in his career.

Overall, Mahomes isn’t just about numbers, either. He does what it takes to win, and Kansas City has lost just nine total games under his watch over the past three seasons.

Tampa Bay could still win, but it’d probably require shutting Mahomes down. That seems unlikely.

They Match Up Well With the Buccaneers

If having the best quarterback in the NFL wasn’t good enough, the Chiefs also have (arguably) the game’s top tight end and the league’s most explosive wide receiver.

Mahomes is a man amongst boys, but he is aided by two of the league’s best weapons in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Most offenses don’t have one guy as good as these two. Kansas City has two.

It doesn’t stop there, either.

The Chiefs aren’t known for their running game, but they really haven’t had to worry about that, given just how dominant they’ve been through the air.

Just look at where they ranked in key team passing categories in 2020.

Pass Yards Completions Yards Per Attempt Yards Per Completion
1st 2nd 2nd 3rd

Kansas City was top-5 in all of the major categories, so you know they can sling the rock.

You saw it front and center against the Buccaneers earlier this year (more on that in a bit). In their first playoff game, the Chiefs took advantage of a positive matchup against a beatable Browns secondary, too.

If the Chiefs depended on their ground game, I’d be somewhat worried against a vicious Tampa Bay front seven. However, their success through the air can just set up their ground game, and it’s not the other way around.

Kansas City’s inability to dominate on the ground consistently could always become a problem in this game. However, the league’s best passing game faces a Bucs secondary that ranked 21st against the pass and 22nd in passing scores allowed per game.

Tampa Bay’s performance in the playoffs hasn’t really looked like one of a title-winning defense, either.

Yes, they went into Green Bay and beat a very good Packers offense, but Aaron Rodgers still carved them up for over 300 yards and three scores.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are a whole different problem. And judging by the strengths and weaknesses of both sides – plus the clear issues revealed in this matchup in the first meeting – Tampa Bay will have their hands full in Super Bowl 55.

The Chiefs Won the First Meeting

Speaking of that first meeting, let’s not overlook the fact that the Chiefs won, 27-24. Teams can always figure out a way to beat you, and a rematch of a close game could always go the other way.

However, historically, a rematch between teams that faced earlier in the year does tend to favor the team that won the first meeting.

The Chiefs only won 27-24 in the end, but here are a few talking points you may want to recall from that game.

  • It wasn’t as close as it seems
  • Patrick Mahomes dominated
  • Tampa Bay couldn’t contain Tyreek Hill
  • Tom Brady struggled

The final score looks pretty good, and it’s at the very worst a testament to Tampa Bay’s ability to mount comebacks in games. This was far from the only time they did so in 2020, after all.

That said, it was very much a case of too little, too late. Kansas City dominated this game, as the Chiefs stormed out to a 17-0 lead and was up 27-10 going into the fourth quarter.

Tom Brady struggled initially, as he tossed two picks and saved most of his production for the final stanza.

The big issue for the Bucs was Tyreek Hill, who consistently got behind the defense and racked up an insane 269 yards and three touchdowns on 13 catches.

All of this could be duplicated. Well, maybe not the crazy stat line by Hill (maybe not), but the matchup is still there for Kansas City to crush in.

The crazy part is Travis Kelce (8 catches, 82 yards) wasn’t a focal point here. He simply didn’t need to be. And while the defense gave up 24 points and allowed the Bucs to come back late, it put three brilliant quarters on tape first.

Kansas City winning the first game doesn’t guarantee a thing. It does, however, offer a blueprint for how they can attack the Bucs and win again.

Tom Brady is Vulnerable

It feels weird to condemn a guy who has been to nine previous Super Bowls and won six. Brady has been on a heater, too, having at least appeared in four of the last six NFL title games.

That’s wild stuff, but let’s remember a few things. First, Brady isn’t invincible in the Super Bowl.

Not only has he never won a league title by more than six points (it’s true), but he’s also lost on this stage three times.

Not many guys can do that and get away with it. Winning the other six helps, I’m sure.

Brady isn’t just vulnerable because he’s lost in the Super Bowl or had mostly close games, though. He’s also vulnerable because this is an entirely new setting.

He didn’t have to go through the Chiefs to get here, for one.

Something tells me he left New England for two reasons; because the team around him wasn’t very good anymore, but also because he knew he’d have to keep running into Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Brady also has just this past year with the Buccaneers.

Things have gone well to this point, but how much can he really trust his supporting cast and coaches? It seems fine for now, but the foundation can’t possibly be as solid as it was while with the Pats.

There’s also the case of Brady’s unraveling last week.

He took advantage of Green Bay’s miscues in the first half of the NFC title game but then proceeded to completely meltdown with three interceptions on three consecutive drives.

He wasn’t very good the week prior against the Saints, either. Brady has benefited immensely in Tampa Bay’s last two playoff games thanks to short fields generated via turnovers.

If the Tampa Bay defense can’t keep that up, Brady may be forced to keep pace with Mahomes and the Chiefs all by himself. At 43, is it that crazy to imagine his recent struggles blowing up into something ugly in the biggest game of the year?

Kansas City’s Defense is Underrated

Another reason why the Chiefs will win Super Bowl 55 is their underrated defense.

There is this misconception that the Chiefs have a great offense with loaded weapons, but they can’t defend.

A couple of years ago, sure, that was a valid argument.

That really isn’t the case anymore, and it surely hasn’t been true so far in the playoffs. Kansas City can be had on the ground, but they contained an elite Browns rushing attack, and their pass defense is among the league’s best.

The Chiefs ended the regular season with the 10th best scoring defense in football, while their secondary ranked 13th in yards allowed per game.

As expected, the Chiefs tightened up in the playoffs, limiting a Cleveland offense that hung 48 points on the Steelers and then baffling Josh Allen and Buffalo’s third-ranked offense.

Why? First, because the Bills are pretty one-dimensional. But also because of pressure.

Kansas City was quite the force upfront, and when you look at their pass rushers – Frank Clark and Chris Jones – you know the opposition has a lot to deal with.

This is pretty key in going against Tom Brady, who historically has major issues when pressured.

Summary

In summary, there are a lot of reasons why the Chiefs will win Super Bowl 55.

They just won last year, and unlike a lot of teams who collapse after winning a title, they’re very much in a position to do so again.

In the name of Tom Brady’s former Patriots squad, KC just might have a dynasty on their hands. Repeating isn’t easy to do, but the Chiefs are built to do just that, and they enter Super Bowl 55 as the betting favorite.

Blessed with the league’s best passing game and facing a beatable secondary, Patrick Mahomes and co. are set up from a matchup perspective to win this game.

That’s precisely what they did in the first meeting during the regular season, and I expect they’ll find similar success when playing for all the marbles.

Even if the offense isn’t perfect, this Kansas City defense is good enough to give Tampa Bay major issues. Roll it all together, and I think you have your 2021 Super Bowl winner in the Kansas City Chiefs.

Of course, there’s another side to this debate. If you’re wondering what the reasons why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could win Super Bowl 55 may be, keep an eye out for it at our Super Bowl betting blog.

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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