Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in the 2021 MLB Season?

| March 11, 2021 7:30 am PDT

An unheralded rookie led the majors in home runs in 2019. A guy many baseball enthusiasts knew nothing about led the league in jacks this past season.

Looking ahead to 2021, who will be the MLB regular-season home run leader is sizing up to be another crapshoot. Nevertheless, the unknown shouldn’t stop you from throwing money at this wager. Especially considering the glaring inconsistencies within the pricing from one site to another.

Take a look.

Most Home Runs Odds

Instead of just pointing out a few examples of the discrepancies, I created the table below to give you a primetime visual. Keep in mind that BetUS and BetOnline are two of the best US sports betting sites around.

Odds for the Most HR in 2021 – MLB Regular Season
Player BetUs BetOnline
Pete Alonso +900 +900
Mike Trout +1000 +850
Luke Voit +1200 +3300
Joey Gallo +1200 +1200
Eugenio Suarez +1400 +1800
Jorge Soler +1800 +2500
Marcell Ozuna +1800 +3300
Ronald Acuna Jr. +1800 +1200
Cody Bellinger +1800 +1400
Aaron Judge +1800 +1200
Yordan Alvarez +1800 +1600
Jose Abreu +2000 +2800
Nelson Cruz +2000 +4000
Manny Machado +2500 +2500
Fernando Tatis Jr. +2500 +1600
Jose Ramirez +2500 +3300
Miguel Sano +2500 +2500
Giancarlo Stanton +3000 +2200
Bryce Harper</td +3000 +2000
Matt Chapman +3000 +3300
Matt Olson +3000 +1800
Christian Yelich +3000 +2500
Freddie Freeman +3500 +5000
Eloy Jimenez +3500 +1600
Kyle Schwarber +3500 +4000
Nolan Arenado +4000 +3300
Trevor Story +5000 +2500
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. +5000 N/A
Max Kepler +5000 N/A
Kris Byrant +5000 N/A
Francisco Lindor +5000 N/A
Luis Robert +5000 +5000
Max Muncy +5000 +5000
Mookie Betts +8000 +3300
Franmil Reyes +15000 +2500

CLICK TO CLOSE

Juan Soto is listed at +1200 at BetOnline but is mysteriously nowhere to be found at BetUS. Mookie Betts’s odds at BetOnline are more than sliced in half, but nothing is more egregious than the number attached to Franmil Reyes.

I’m wondering if these two sportsbooks were even evaluating the same player. 

Thanks to the bookies laying the juice for us, we can back a handful of players and still come out ahead. I’ve narrowed it down to five candidates.

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets

The Mets first baseman was due for regression after an MLB rookie record and Major League-leading 53 bombs in 2019. With that being said, Pete launched 16 dingers in 57 games this past year as he continued swinging for the fences.

Alonso struck out in 30.6% of his at-bats in 2019 – an alarming rate and a clear indication of his “go for broke” mentality. Pete’s 29.3% K rate in 2020 confirms that his strategy hasn’t changed.

Another reason to get behind Alonso in this bet is the durability he’s displayed through his first two seasons. Case in point – Pete has played in 218/222 games since joining the Mets big league club.

Juan Soto, OF, Nationals

Juan Soto registered a homer every 11.8 at-bats in 2020 – the third-best rate in baseball behind Luke Voit and Mike Trout. Based on Soto’s trajectory three years into his service time, it’s reasonable to think that his AB/HR ratio will be even more robust in 2021.

Juan Soto By the Numbers – At-Bats Per Home Run
Season At-Bats Home Runs AB/Hr
2018 414 22 18.8
2019 542 34 15.9
2020 154 13 11.8

Whether he ends up hitting second or third in Dave Martinez’s lineup, Soto is in line for 550+ ABs in 2021 so long as he can avoid injuries. Should that pan out, go ahead, and pencil the Nationals left fielder in for at least 45 taters.

Fernando Tatis Jr, SS, Padres

If there is a more boisterous player in Major League Baseball, please point him out. Fernando Tatis Jr.’s exuberance on the diamond goes to the extreme when he’s in the batter’s box, and don’t think for one second that the 22-year-old shortstop is displaying these antics just for show.

Whatever Fernando does to get himself riled up is working – the kid has clubbed 39 home runs in 143 career MLB games.

Sitting pretty right in front of Manny Machado in San Diego’s batting order, opposing pitchers can ill-afford to pitch around Tatis. After a brilliant second season in which he finished 2nd in the NL in homers, “El Nino” is locked and loaded for an even bigger 2021.

Fernando’s +2500 odds to lead the MLB in home runs are screaming with value.

Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox

Eloy is aided by being positioned smack dab in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball. The 6’4” outfielder missed 40 games in ’19 and still went yard 31 times, and he was just as impressive in his encore in 2020.

Thanks to 14 more blasts in 55 games, Jimenez clocks in at 15.3 AB/HR for his career, and I’ll quickly put that number in perspective.

Two seasons into their big-league careers, Mike Trout’s AB/HR was 20.14. Juan Soto’s was 17.07. 

I pegged Eloy as one of the AL MVP sleepers, and I can promise you it’s not because he’s a Gold Glove-caliber defender in left field. That premonition was predicated on #74 in Chicago ending up as one of the HR leaders – if not the top dog overall.

Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros

Staying on theme with another young outfielder in the American League, don’t look past Yordan Alvarez throwing his hat in the ring when it comes to the final HR tally. After undergoing arthroscopic surgery on both knees in 2020, Yordan is ready to put the lost season behind him and start “mashing at the plate.”

“First off, I’m just really happy to be back here with the guys, and I’m super motivated to be back. And it felt really good.”

Between reps in the outfield, first base, and DH, the 23-year-old slugger is slated for everyday at-bats in the heart of Dusty Baker’s lineup. Missing all but two games in 2020 has some forgetting how potent Alvarez is, but let his Rookie of the Year-winning stat line in 2019 serve as a reminder.

Yordan Alvarez at the Dish in 2019
Games At-Bats Homers AB/Hr Batting Avg.
87 313 27 11.59 .313

MLB HR Leader Prediction

Until you see the odds for the MLB home run leader with your own two eyes, you won’t believe some of the price discrepancies. The one I’m keen on taking advantage of is Eloy Jimenez (+1600 vs. +3500).

As you soak up Eloy’s +3500 number, a graphic from my bold MLB predictions alludes to why Jimenez leading the league in homers isn’t far-fetched at all.

Some other names to consider are obvious, such as Mike Trout and Ronald Acuna, and taking a shot on Trevor Story at +5000 isn’t the worst idea. Once you lock in your picks for who leads the league in home runs, start browsing the contenders for the MVP award in each league.

Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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