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When to Bet on the 2020 US Presidential Election – The Advantages of Betting Now

| October 30, 2020 7:28 am PDT
Joe Biden and Donald Trump

The advantages of betting on the 2020 presidential election right now seem to outweigh waiting until the last minute. Does the early bird truly catch the worm?

Whether you are betting on Donald Trump or Joe Biden, I believe that it’s best to get your wagers in as soon as you can. The closer to election night we get, the worse the odds may become. But that’s not the only reason for playing the game early.

Betting on the 2020 election is a bit of a unique exercise. Some believe that the media cannot be trusted to predict the winner between Trump and Biden, and given that he is much more favored by mainstream news outlets, this can wreak havoc on your plans of locking in on good odds.

But there is more to betting on Trump vs. Biden earlier rather than later, as I will now explain. 

Benefits of Betting on the Presidential Election Now

For a start, you could really capitalize on uncertainties in the market and confusion among both sportsbooks and bettors. Especially if you are betting on Trump to beat Biden.

Although most oddsmakers will be quickly onto movements or key information that could sway things, some can over-inflate certain markets. If you are ready to take advantage of any mistakes in odds, this could mean a serious increase in your potential return.

But what else is there to benefit from if you are betting early? Here are three of the main benefits.

Greater Frequency of Line Moves

In the run-up to the election, the lines for Trump vs. Biden have moved quite a bit on political gambling sites. The fluctuation of odds comes down to all sorts, but the main factors are things such as how both men are perceived to handle questions in debates, their slip-ups, and, of course, a greater increase in the number of bettors placing money on the market.

If too much money is on one side, oddsmakers must move the lines to compensate for a market that is overloaded. And given how much the media plays into the minds of voters, and thus bettors, you can see a lot of changes.

Providing you are smart enough to understand things and know how to bet on presidential elections, your chances of finding awesome odds increase dramatically.

Get a Better Price for the Favorite

I don’t need to tell any bettor worth their salt that Biden was a guarantee to be the betting favorite for this election.

But of all the reasons to bet on Biden, doing so just because the media suggests he’s going to win is a bad approach. Instead, you must be confident that his chances are in line with his odds.

Betting early makes this a much easier decision to make, if you are going for the candidate that you know will be the most popular with bettors. Right now, there is conflicting information regarding who has the most money placed on them, but the simple fact is that Biden is the favorite.

The odds you will get on Biden to win the election closer to the day are unlikely to be as attractive as they were a few weeks ago. This can lead to some bettors looking for Hail Mary wagers and dumping money on the worst bets for the presidential election.

More Potentially Lucrative Markets

Unlike sports such as boxing or MMA, presidential election prop bets are typically better if you bet earlier rather than on the day of the election.

This is because there are more markets to take advantage of. With the more information that is gathered with polling data and the like, the more there’s a chance that some potentially lucrative markets are suspended.

For example, there is a market for predicting the outcome in swing states and you have so much knowledge that goes against what the news outlets and the general public are saying. The state swings from the Democrats to the Republicans, and you are happy because you get paid out at odds of -200 on your bet.

But if you would have used your knowledge to bet earlier on the election market in question, you would have got odds of +250, before the information you had was widely circulated and the market was heavily backed. 

Why I Don’t Like the Idea of Betting Late on the Election

There are often advantages to holding out when betting on the election, but they are heavily outweighed by betting early.

You must remember that this is one of the biggest betting events in history, and it is politics. Betting on politics is a different scenario from betting on the big game between the Saints and the Ravens, for example. Sure, there are similarities with betting on sports and betting on the election, but knowing the DIFFERENCES between the two can be vital.

For a start, political betting is reactive. But this election will be so over-reactive because the media are obsessed with getting as much news out there as they can. If you’re waiting for exit polls to bet on, you will be getting lower odds AND will be putting yourself at the behest of over-reactive voters.

With practically any sport, there are advantages to holding out for factual information that could have a big effect on a team or athlete’s performance. Stuff like injuries, team sheets, and private life struggles will be either actively pushed into the public domain or will find its way out. This information is, for the most part, factual and very useful. 

Compared with an election? Where the line between political gains and losses is blurrier than grandma’s vision without her glasses? There is no comparison at all. Politics is often a game of manipulation of information, and for that reason, facts are often seen as collateral damage.

More than this, there is an argument to say that some of the most important information about a candidate doesn’t see the light of day.

My Final Words

Betting smart means boxing clever when it comes to getting the best odds and bets for the presidential election. 

Just like a delicious buffet of tasty treats is reduced to the stuff no one wants if you don’t get there early, betting on the election will feel that way to some. Now, there are exceptions to the rule, of course, and this is my opinion.

If you’d like to read more about betting on the election, or the election itself, I have left you some quality reading below. Enjoy!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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