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What Bettors Need to Know for NFL Week 5, 2020
Ron Rivera has pulled the plug on Dwayne Haskins just 10 starts into the former Buckeye’s career. Anyone wondering if a switch to Kyle Allen will shore up Washington’s play at the quarterback position, here’s some food for thought.
In 13 games under Rivera’s watchful eye last season in Carolina, Allen threw 16 picks and fumbled 13 times. It seems like this is a precursor to getting Alex Smith back in the saddle.
What else should NFL bettors know heading into week 5?
Here’s what’s on my mind.
Another Slop Fest at MetLife Stadium?
With rain in the forecast Sunday afternoon in East Rutherford, the term “slop fest” could be more than just a metaphor for what to expect when the Cardinals and Jets step onto the field. I know the Jets defense has been nothing short of abominable – recently surrendering 37 points to a hodgepodge lineup in Denver led by Brett Rypien – but here’s what else I know.
The under has hit in all four of Arizona’s games in 2020.
As poorly as Sam Darnold has played, suspecting the Jets offense starts clicking with a dilapidated Joe Flacco at the helm isn’t just being naïve. It’s downright foolish.
When you realize Joe Flacco and Frank Gore are starting for the Jets right now… pic.twitter.com/KomxSrgIZj— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 2, 2020
With the total sitting at 47 points, there seems to be some merit in targeting the under.
Lift The Hood on Dak’s Statistics
The Cowboys have allowed at least 38 points in three straight games and they are favored to beat the Giants by 10 in week 5. Perhaps the 54-point total installed at the top sportsbooks is still too low.
Or is it?
Eyes get wide when you start staring at Dak’s numbers through the first four weeks. However, let’s put Prescott’s 422.5 passing yards/game in perspective.
Dak has attempted 201 passes in 2020 – more than double the number of throws Kirk Cousins or Lamar Jackson have attempted. Prescott is on pace to chuck more than 800 passes this season – the NFL record is 727 set by Matthew Stafford in 2012.
Kellen Moore’s aggressive play-calling, combined with trailing every week, has put Dak in a position to pad his stats like a teenager playing Madden on rookie mode. Nevertheless, it could be a much different story if Dallas builds a lead against New York and starts leaning on Zeke and the running game.
Target Robby Anderson in Fantasy
If you play DFS football, you should be licking your chops at Robby Anderson’s $5.9k price tag on DraftKings. Robby is the 18th-highest priced wideout on DK main slate – which doesn’t even include the likes of Michael Thomas or Adam Thielen. Or Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Lockett, and D.K. Metcalf.
Why so much disrespect for Teddy Bridgewater’s most reliable target?
YAC leaders ahead of MNF:— PFF (@PFF) October 5, 2020
1. Alvin Kamara – 305
2. Terry McLaurin – 208
3. Robby Anderson – 193
4. DeAndre Hopkins – 182 pic.twitter.com/veuT85gWzO
In terms of all NFL wideouts in 2020, Anderson ranks 4th in receptions behind only DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, and Keenan Allen. He’s 6th in receiving yards, 8th in targets, and oh yeah…
Carolina is playing the hapless Falcons in the dome. Atlanta is yielding 341.5 passing yards per game and surrendering 34.5 points per contest.
Betting Trends Favor the Bengals
Arriving at M&T Bank Stadium as a 13-point dog, don’t expect Cincinnati to pull off a stunning upset. With that being said, some key betting trends say 13 points is too large of a cushion in this spot.
First of all, Cincy is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six matchups in Charm City. Second of all, backing Lamar Jackson as a home favorite hasn’t been as profitable as you might think. In fact, the results have been downright abysmal.
Case in point – when favored at home with Lamar under center, the Ravens are 4-10 ATS.
Now for the juicy stuff, courtesy of The Action Network’s Matt Freedman.
Here is a compilation of data involving divisional road underdogs versus non-divisional road underdogs over the last several years.
- Divisional Road Underdogs 570-474-33 ATS (3.8% ROI)
- Non-Divisional Road Underdogs 901-883-56 ATS (-1.3% ROI)
Since this is a divisional matchup taking place in October, let’s take it a step further.
- Divisional Road Underdogs (September-November) 354-280-23 ATS (8.8% ROI)
- Non-Divisional Road Underdogs (December + January) 186-194-10 ATS (-4.6% ROI)
Sounds like as good of a time as any to invest in Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Check out our NFL picks for more help with your betting decisions this week.