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Week 6 NFL Picks – Underdog Plays and Top Lock

| October 9, 2019 8:10 am PDT
Week 6 NFL Lock of the Week and Underdog Picks

The NFL got thrown on its side in week 5. The Indianapolis Colts capped a fairly wild weekend by upsetting the previously undefeated Chiefs on the road. If you were on top of the week’s biggest upset play, hats off to you.

I did not see that coming, but perhaps our own Michael Wynn was right all along about the Colts being Super Bowl 54 threats.

Regardless, I whiffed on Indy and my week 5 lock also failed. Chicago fell behind the Raiders 17-0 in London and even teased bettors with a 21-point comeback before falling flat in their second loss of the year.

My favorite NFL underdog picks didn’t deliver. The Jaguars lost a barn burner in Carolina, while we’ve yet to know the outcome of the Browns vs. 49ers Monday Night Football battle as I write this.

It wasn’t an easy week for betting on pro football, it seems. Favorites went just 8-6 on the week, while home teams went 6-8. If you want to go even deeper, winners went just 7-6-1 against the spread.

Of course, this was a nice week to target some NFL upset picks, with viable plays like the Packers, Cardinals, and Bills churning out quality value. Indy, Oakland, and Denver, on the other hand, were more of the random variety.

That kind of randomness, provided we can explain it to some extent, is what we want to look for each week. We also want a little safety. Let’s acquire both as we go over my favorite week 6 NFL lock of the week, as well as some NFL upsets to consider betting on.

Week 6 NFL Lock of the Week

The Bears really let me down in week 5. I know they traveled to London, and maybe the Raiders aren’t so bad, but they rallied from 17 points down and still couldn’t get it done.

Then again, I had them covering -4.5, so even a 21-17 win wasn’t going to get bettors where they needed to go. Fortunately, this NFL picks section was 4-0 before last week, so if you’re using my weekly NFL betting advice, you’re still in the green.

Moving into week 6, there are a few games that stand out. For me, though, the game to target feels like the clash in the desert between the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals.

Here’s a quick look at the Falcons vs. Cardinals betting odds before making a call on this contest.

Atlanta Falcons (-2) -110
Arizona Cardinals (+2) -110
Atlanta Falcons to Win -140 -140
Arizona Cardinals to Win +120
Over 52 -110
Under 52 -110

I think you can go either way in this one if you’re just trying to pick a winner. Atlanta has been very disappointing in 2019, but they have a very explosive offense and they’re facing a Cardinals team that just finally won their first game of the year in week five.

On the flip side, Arizona also has a lot of offensive potential. Getting that elusive first win of the Kliff Kingsbury era could also promote confidence in this group, while it’s never terrible to bet on underdogs that are playing at home.

I wouldn’t mess with the spreads at all, though. I’m either betting on Dan Quinn to right the ship and get the Falcons to 2-4, or I’d soak up the value with AZ in front of their home crowd.

The Cardinals would be the preferred bet there, just because Quinn’s days are likely numbered as head coach. A loss against Arizona to fall to 1-5 would have to be the final nail in his coffin, too.

While that’s a fine bet, it’s by no means a lock. Instead, I’m focusing on the pace of play, the offensive upside, and the sheer lack of defensive fortitude.

Neither of these teams play much defense. Arizona has allowed 23+ points in every single game this season and they’ve topped this 52 total twice. Their other three games still produced Totals of 50, 49, and 37.

Atlanta, meanwhile, just got gouged to the tune of 53 points in week 5 and have allowed 20+ points every week this year.

Both of these teams also play fast. Arizona runs the fourth most plays on average so far this season, while the Falcons rank 11th in that regard. No defense, fast offenses, and a lot of upside, yet this 52 total seems, dare I say, low?

I see a lot of offense in this one and am comfortably suggesting bettors target the over. If you want to go the extra mile, tack Arizona on to my NFL upset picks and chase them as a fun upset play.

Pick
  • Over 52
    -110

Week 6 NFL Upset Picks

Arizona is a mighty fine underdog try this week, but there are some NFL upset picks I prefer a bit more in week 6. Let’s get into which teams you could make a little extra money on if things go your way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+120) Over Carolina Panthers (-140)

In my week 6 NFL preview, I picked the over for this game, as it’s unclear yet if Cam Newton will try to go in this one. Even if he does, I like taking a shot at the Bucs here, as they did win the first meeting and they’ve looked awfully good lately.

Tampa Bay’s defense still isn’t where it needs to be, but Ronald Jones II has shown flashes in an improved running game and Jameis Winston is shredding defenses through the air.

The latter is easier said than done against a strong Panthers secondary, but the Bucs could go for the sweep here and offer solid value as a home dog.

Philadelphia Eagles (+125) Over Minnesota Vikings (-145)

Kirk Cousins and co. got back on track in an easy win over the Giants this past weekend, but are they guaranteed to keep the good times rolling against the Eagles?

I’m not so sure. Philly is now riding hot themselves, winning each of their last two games and looking a little cleaner defensively. This matchup may directly favor the Eagles, who have been elite against the run and have the offensive firepower to pull through in a shootout.

Philly’s nastiness up front gives them the ability to stop Dalvin Cook and put this game on Kirk Cousins. The last time that happened, Cousins looked flat out inept in a brutal loss to the Chicago Bears.

I’ll admit that the Eagles are vulnerable against the pass, but I love their defensive line in this spot. If Cousins is forced to pass, I think the Eagles can sneak out a win.

Detroit Lions (+200) Over Green Bay Packers (-240)

You could vouch for the Texans here at the same price, but I’m not going to be the victim of recency bias. Betting against the Chiefs simply isn’t a profitable route most of the time.

I doubt consistently betting against the Packers is going to win you a lot of money this year either. However, Green Bay has shown some vulnerability at times in 2019, and they did lose a home game two weeks ago to the Eagles.

More importantly, this Lions team they’ll be hosting on Monday Night Football in week 6 is actually pretty good.

Forget about Detroit’s recent mental hold on the Packers. They’ve won each of the last four meetings and lost by a touchdown or less in the three showdowns before that.

The Lions get up for this rivalry and this will be a huge game in primetime in front of the nation. It also has massive NFC North ramifications, as Green Bay is all alone in first place at the moment.

A Lions win gives them the season series edge and keeps the Packers from running away with the crown so early in the year.

Schematically, Detroit can handle the Packers. This is a severely underrated defense that gave the Eagles problems, shut the Chargers down, and almost topped the Chiefs.

Detroit took a hit in their defensive rankings after that shootout with Kansas City, but they are still a handful up front and are opportunistic in the open field (5th most forced fumbles).

Kerryon Johnson should be able to find a lot of success in the face of Green Bay’s weak run defense, which should aid the defense and also open things up for Matthew Stafford through the air.

The Lions are admittedly a much safer play against the spread (+4.5), but in such a huge rivalry game, bettors are getting significant value that just might be worth taking advantage of.

Add in injuries to key offensive weapons like Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams, and there may be just enough here for Detroit to score their biggest win of the year.

Summary

As I said, I do like the Cardinals a bit, and there are a few other small spots to target some NFL underdog picks in week 6. However, I’m not seeing any massive upset specials we need to chase.

I don’t really see Kansas City dropping two in a row at their own house, while putting too much faith in the Jets, Bengals, or Dolphins feels like a mistake waiting to happen.

There’s always going to be merit in adding some crazy upside to your safer picks each week. I just think there needs to be sound logic behind it.

If you want to get a little wild, try one of the three NFL upset picks above. For more insight as to how to bet on the NFL in week 6, hit up our NFL betting guide, where we offer updated odds, expert predictions, and full picks for the entire week’s slate.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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