Week 3 NCAAF Betting – Free Picks for Selected College Football Games
Published on September 13, 2018
Two weeks in, and teams are already starting to show their true colors.
While some schools have stormed out of the gates and won impressively in back-to-back weeks, there are some other programs around the country who have already let their fan bases down.
So what will week 3 bring?
Last week, I was all over the Georgia Bulldogs going into South Carolina and stomping all over the Gamecocks, and that turned out well. With Middle Tennessee State coming to Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia, this Saturday, I look for Kirby Smart’s team to throttle the Blue Raiders.
But what else do I see? Are there any other wagers standing out on SportsBetting.ag’s betting sheet this week that are piquing my interest?
Just follow along and see for yourself. If you fancy any of my picks, just head to SportsBetting.ag or another of our recommended college football betting sites and start firing away!
So technically this is considered a “neutral site” game, as neither squad will be playing in their home stadium. But the fact of the matter is that the Dallas Cowboys Stadium (where this game will be played) is just 18 miles east of the TCU campus, and there is going to be an awful lot of “purple” in the stands.
That’s not to say that the Ohio State faithful doesn’t travel well, as I’m sure we’ll see a decent-sized Scarlet and Grey contingency in Arlington on Saturday. But make no mistake about this – the crowd will be behind TCU in this contest.
The 15th-ranked Horned Frogs and the 4th-ranked Buckeyes have both looked sharp during their first two games, albeit it has come against fairly weak competition. But when these two teams engage in battle on ABC at 8:00 pm EST Saturday evening, I can assure you that no love will be lost.
I’m not exactly sure who has the better team here, although most would argue that the talent level at Ohio State is far superior.
But I happen to be on board with the leadership presented by Gary Patterson and his staff, as opposed to the complete mess and disorganization up top in Columbus.
Urban Meyer is going to have to sit this one out after displaying that he isn’t properly fit to run this program with integrity, and I think the lack of control and direction in the OSU locker room will boil over once they face adversity.
TCU’s sophomore QB Shawn Robinson leads a balanced attack on offense that has a trio of capable running backs, not to mention Robinson himself is electric with his feet.
KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Reagor will have their hands full trying to shake the Ohio State DBs, but I think this team can muster up enough points to stay competitive.
Gary Patterson’s team is too well-coached to let this one get out of hand, which is why I see this turning out to be a heck of a ball game.
I don’t see many scenarios where either team builds a huge lead, which is why laying 12.5 points on the road (virtually) to a top-15 team in the country is just not something I have any interest in.
I will, however, buy some stock on the other side. Plus, I don’t even have to lay any juice!
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are ranked 8th in the nation, but I think Brian Kelly’s bunch is overrated. I see that they scheduled three consecutive home games to start the year in hopes of leaping out to a 3-0 start. And they very well might do so.
But seriously, ladies and gentlemen. Brandon Wimbush completed just 54.8% of his passes versus a middling Ball State team and was picked three times. After completing a revolting 49.5% of his passes in 2017, I’m not confident that this team’s offensive prowess is powerful enough to steam their schedule.
In fact, I think they’ll have plenty of problems trying to score points against a Vanderbilt defense that has allowed just 17 points through two games so far.
Kyle Shurmur, the Commodores quarterback and son of New York Giants head coach Pat Shurmur, has looked sharp in his opening two games and knows how to remain calm in high-tension situations.
Entering his senior year and third season as the team’s starting signal-caller, I believe Kyle will be able to stretch the field and move the chains in South Bend on Saturday, at least to the point where this game stays close.
Over the last five seasons, Vanderbilt has been a double-digit underdog on the road a total of 13 times. They’ve gone 9-4 against the spread in those instances, and I think this is another case of the Commodores not getting enough respect.
Or perhaps the Fighting Irish are getting too much.
Either way, I think Vandy keeps this thing competitive and could even pull off the big upset.
Make sure you shop your line here, as Notre Dame is now -14 on many of the sites. However, SportsBook.ag is letting us have Vanderbilt at +14.5. We all know how big of an implication that extra half-point can have!
Here is one of those games where I expect the general public to bet on Arizona State. So have yourself a guess where I’m laying my money.
After beating the 15th-ranked Michigan State Spartans on their home field last weekend, the Sun Devils are surely riding high. The game was televised on ESPN, and many got to see Herm Edwards smiling and celebrating after the victory.
Now flip the script.
San Diego State fell apart in the second half at Stanford in Week 1 and followed that up with a mediocre-at-best performance against Sacramento State this past Saturday.
Clearly, ASU has the much better resume up to this point, and given recency bias, most casual bettors will have no qualms about laying 5 points here.
But this is a much different game for both teams.
Arizona State is now playing on the road, and SDSU gets another shot at PAC-12 competition. Remember, not only did the Aztecs beat the Sun Devils in Tempe last year, but Rocky Long’s squad also defeated Stanford on their home field the following week.
I expect this game to be a low-scoring dogfight, which is why I’ll take the home team and the points.
The totals line in this game is 45.5, and I noticed something interesting here.
If you don’t know anything about San Diego State football or how their program runs things, let me fill you in. In 2016, SDSU RB Donnel Pumphrey not only led the nation in rushing with 2,133 yards, but he ended his collegiate career as college football’s all-time leading rusher.
After getting drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles, Rashaad Penny comes in, and guess what happens?
Penny led the country with 2,248 rushing yards in 2017. Now he’s with the Seattle Seahawks playing on Sundays.
So here we are in 2018, and Juwan Washington is pacing the Aztecs with 314 yards on the ground through two games – good enough for the third-most in Division I FBS.
The point is that SDSU LOVES to run the ball! They severely struggle to throw the ball down the field and rely heavily on their running attack, as you can see.
Well, the Arizona State Sun Devils are allowing just 32.5 rushing yards per game so far, topping the entire country in that statistic. So that right there tells me this could be a sloppy slugfest.
Now add in that SDSU clocks in at 6th in the country in rushing defense, and you’ll see where I am going with this.
All the evidence here leads me to believe there will be plenty of punts in this game and that big plays and touchdowns could come few and far between.
I just can’t see this game being a shoot-out, as both Rocky Long and Herm Edwards are extremely disciplined on the defensive side.
I’m not saying you have to parlay the two bets, but I think that the Aztecs can edge this one out in a low-scoring battle.
Saturdays are tailor-made for hanging out with friends and watching some college football.
Throw in some good food and some cold beer, and you’re talking about an ideal afternoon.
Once you start betting money on the contests, the action becomes even more exhilarating.
This week, the options seem endless, as there are more than 50 games you can bet on. And that doesn’t even include the over/under bets or any props you might encounter!
There is no shortage of opportunities to make some money wagering college football, so I suggest you dip your feet in and get started. I’ll be back for more picks and advice for Week 4 of the NCAA Football season, but until then, good luck, and enjoy the games!