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Week 11 NFL Betting Odds – Early Lines and Predictions

| November 11, 2019 9:22 am PDT
Early Look at Week 11 NFL Betting Odds

Week 10 certainly delivered an entertaining slate for NFL bettors. Looking for an upset? You got one via the Tennessee Titans rallying to top the Kansas City Chiefs.

That sure spoiled the return of Patrick Mahomes, but it also made for some good football and hopefully some amazing value for bettors.

Oh, but the NFL upsets didn’t stop there.

That would have done the trick to be sure, but the Atlanta Falcons chipped in their own shocking result. Matt Ryan and co., a dreadful 1-7 and hearing calls for the head of Dan Quinn, answered the bell and shook the Saints in New Orleans by a score of 26-9.

Elsewhere, the Cardinals and Bucs delivered the offensive shootout we thought we’d get.

There were some redemption storylines, too. Mitch Trubisky tossed three scores in a vindicating win for the Chicago Bears, while Baker Mayfield and the Browns got back on the winning path by taking down the Bills at home.

It was a wild (and rather forgettable) week for NFL betting, but it’s onward we go to week 11. First, let’s take a gander at the week 11 NFL odds and see how bettors may want to react to the initial pricing at BetOnline as we dive into my NFL Week 11 early look.

Early Week 11 NFL Betting Lines

  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) +105 vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5) -125
  • New Orleans Saints (-5.5) -115 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) -105
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+10) -110 vs. Oakland Raiders (-10) -110
  • Dallas Cowboys (-3) +100 vs. Detroit Lions (+3) -120
  • Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) -110 vs. Carolina Panthers (-6.5) -110
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) -105 vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3) -115
  • Denver Broncos (+10) -110 vs. Minnesota Vikings (-10) -110
  • New York Jets (PK) +100 vs. Washington Redskins (PK) -120
  • Buffalo Bills (-6.5) -110 vs. Miami Dolphins (+6.5) -110
  • Houston Texans (+5) -115 vs. Baltimore Ravens (-5) -105
  • Arizona Cardinals (+13.5) -110 vs. San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) -110
  • New England Patriots (-3.5) -111 vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) -109
  • Chicago Bears (+7) -110 vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7) -110
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) -110 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) -110

The early week 11 NFL betting lines suggest another fun slate with a lot of close games. But that has proven in the past to be less than reliable.

In other words, just because the sportsbooks and the NFL betting apps price games closely, it does not mean they will actually pan out that way.

This still projects nicely for bettors, while there shouldn’t be too many situations where injuries drastically impact the way you bet. Suffice it to say, if you see a line you think you can take advantage of, it may be wise to pounce early in the week.

There are a few situations you really need to monitor as of Monday morning, like how the lines change for the 49ers game. They obviously play tonight, and depending on what happens in the game, their odds could change quite a bit.

As far as injuries go, Matthew Stafford’s status is up in the air for week 11, while the Colts tentatively expect Jacoby Brissett back. Which way those updates swing could alter how you bet on those respective games.

With that, let’s dive into this week 11 NFL betting slate.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

The Steelers head to Ohio to battle the Browns in a Thursday Night Football tilt, which kicks off week 11 for sports bettors. It’s a really tough game to assess, seeing as the Steelers moved to 5-4 with a clutch win over the Los Angeles Rams and Cleveland also showed life with a win over the Bills.

It’s scary to wonder what the Browns could be if things started clicking, but this team is 3-6 and undeniably on life support. I think I’ll side with a Steelers defense that could truly embarrass Baker Mayfield on primetime television.

Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
    +105

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Drew Brees and the Saints looked absolutely atrocious this past week. The betting public broke the sportsbooks in this one, where a Falcons team assigned a disgusting +600 moneyline completely dominated what was supposed to be an elite Saints team on the road.

For those keeping score at home, Atlanta has been thinking long and hard about canning head coach Dan Quinn, and they entered week 10 with a gross 1-7 record.

This team proceeded to slap Brees around to the tune of six sacks.

All of that is just filthy, but the Saints are better than that. In week 11 they have to go out on the road, but they’ll be facing a porous Buccaneers secondary. Brees has to be licking his chops here, folks.

Yes, the Saints are a decent bet to cover (-5.5), but this total feels extremely obtainable.

Pick
  • Over 51.5
    -110

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Oakland Raiders

The Bengals ditched the Andy Dalton era to see what they had in Ryan Finley. It didn’t go well.

Perhaps the Bengals should have considered that throwing a middling rookie into the fire against a good Baltimore Ravens defense wasn’t ideal. They didn’t, though, and the Bengals got destroyed.

More of that will come to close out 2019, but a date with a pretty bad Oakland Raiders defense gives Cincy a shot to be competitive. I am all here for Jon Gruden reviving the Raiders, don’t get me wrong, but we’re supposed to back Oakland by 10 points?

I don’t think so.

Cincinnati is really bad, and the Raiders should win, but this spread is egregious.

Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+10)
    -110

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions

The Cowboys travel to Detroit after battling the Vikings on Sunday Night Football. Dallas is in a great spot, as they have a winnable game ahead of them and still control their fate atop the NFC East.

I tend to trust the Cowboys here, but bettors can’t ignore the Lions. They were without Matthew Stafford this past week, though, and if his back injuries keep him out again, Dallas could be in for an easy victory.

There is no word yet on Stafford, which understandably makes Dallas a very attractive bet the second odds for this game are updated.

Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys (-3)
    +100

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

The Dirty Birds have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after man-handling the Saints. They’re 2-7 now. Throw the parade already.

Good for them, but they have a lot of work to do. Next up is stopping Christian McCaffrey and a pretty good Carolina Panthers squad.

The top NFL betting websites like the Panthers here, but the amount of fight we saw in the Falcons was shocking. I think Carolina wins, but perhaps it’s not time to give up on Atlanta just yet.

Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons (+6.5)
    -110

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Gardner Minshew II era is over. It was fun while it lasted, but a healthy Nick Foles is back in the saddle for the Jacksonville Jaguars as week 11 rolls around.

Minshew is a fine prospect, but the Jags paid Foles to get this franchise back into the playoffs, and now he has his chance. His teammates think Foles is of NFL MVP caliber, too, so he’s got some expectations to meet across the board.

He’ll visit a solid Colts team that has blown opportunities to win games in successive weeks.

The last came against a pathetic Dolphins team, which may have revealed Indy to be a bit overrated. That, or the availability of Jacoby Brissett matters a lot more than anyone thought it could.

Fortunately, there is growing optimism that he’ll be back for this crucial divisional matchup:

With Brissett due back, we’ve got a pretty intense AFC South showdown, and the loser is probably sitting out the playoffs this year. The Colts are the understandable favorites at home, but I like the lift Foles coming back gives to the Jaguars.

Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
    -105

Denver Broncos vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings played on SNF and will be back at in week 11 at home against the Broncos. They should be huge favorites, as their defense tends to play nastier in front of the home fans.

This is one game that doesn’t have updated betting odds, but the last time lines were released, Minnesota was propped up as a big 10-point favorite.

Denver’s defense has some bite, and they can run the football, but this is quite the ask. Brandon Allen is the sorry sap they’re trotting out to run their offense in a hostile environment. Godspeed, Broncos.

Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings (-10)
    -110

New York Jets vs. Washington Redskins

Sam Darnold saw ghosts two weeks ago and then proceeded to lose to the Miami Dolphins. Just when you thought the guy was hopeless, he drops a gem in a win over the Giants.

I honestly thought he’d never recover, but I’m glad to see he got his mojo back. Everyone still wants Adam Gase fired, but the Jets are standing by him, and after that win, why not?

Now Gase and co. can march into D.C. and dismantle the Redskins and perhaps New York faithful will confuse him with a good coach. These are two sad sack franchises right now, but I like the Jets a smidgen more.

This game is presently scored as a true pick’em, because of course it is. Ultimately, I trust Sam Darnold a little more than Dwayne Haskins.

Pick
  • New York Jets (PK)
    +100

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins, believe it or not, are the best team in football now. Okay, that’s beyond a reach to end all reaches, but hey, Fitzmagic has led the Fins to two straight wins.

That’s officially two more wins than Miami ever hoped (or wanted) to get in 2019. Perhaps they need to slow it down a bit if they want a real shot at the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Almost certainly, the Dolphins’ overall ineptitude and sheer lack of genuine talent will come back to bite them in week 11. Buffalo fell flat against a desperate Browns team this past week, but they need to snap out of their funk in a hurry.

I think they do that by thoroughly thrashing Miami here. The weird thing is the Bills are only favored by 6.5 points. I know Miami has been winning lately, but they’re not a good team. Expect them to regress sharply in week 11.

Pick
  • Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
    -110

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

Deshaun Watson and the Texans snuck into first place in the AFC South during their bye week. Now they have a huge tilt in Baltimore against a surging Ravens team.

This is a very tough game to project. Baltimore is riding high at the moment, as they topped the Pats two weeks ago and then clowned the Bengals in week 10.

Lamar Jackson is making his NFL MVP rounds at the moment, and this game (50 total) projects as a bit of a shootout. Houston’s defense isn’t quite as imposing with J.J. Watt sidelined, but the Texans feel like they’re being slept on here.

Baltimore probably gets the win at home, but the Texans at +5 feels like a nice value we shouldn’t be ignoring.

Pick
  • Houston Texans (+5)
    -115

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

Kyler Murray has looked pretty darn good lately, as he nearly took down the 49ers two weeks ago and then torched the Buccaneers in week 10. He now has to turn right back around and try to hand the Niners a loss in San Francisco.

Arizona beat a pretty big point spread in this same matchup, but that game was at their home base and the 49ers know who they are now. Richard Sherman said that near-loss was humbling, and everyone knows how good this San Francisco defense can be.

Murray is fun to watch, and I’ll be cheering him on. But this game is in the Bay Area, and the 49ers know what’s coming. I’m not anticipating this one being nearly as close as the first clash.

Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)
    -110

New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Tom Brady and the Patriots had the week off after suffering their first defeat of the season in week 9. They weren’t on top of their game as they fell to the Ravens, but the expectation is that they will clean things up and proceed like championship contenders do.

There has been a lot of chatter about how New England hasn’t been good on offense this year, but this unit still moves the ball and averages 30 points per game (second best in the league).

You can go back and forth about New England’s long-term viability for 2019. One thing bettors know is they tend to bounce back from losses, and they especially take care of business out of a bye.

Sorry, Eagles.

Philly is still well-coached and absurdly deep. They’ll also be at home. I like the Pats to win, but the Eagles will probably make them work for it. I’d prefer a thicker line if possible, but the Eagles at +3.5 isn’t bad.

Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)
    -109

Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams

Mitch Trubisky wasn’t abysmal, and the Bears won a game. Kinda cool how that works out, isn’t it? Chicago’s defense still couldn’t completely silence a Lions offense that started something called a Jeff Driskel under center, though, so that’s all kinds of worrisome.

Still, the Bears saved their playoff lives and will march into LA fully capable of extending that life support lease. The Rams, meanwhile, continue to be a trainwreck on the road.

Jared Goff was all sorts of bad at Pittsburgh, while the Rams just have not looked elite for much of the year. Los Angeles is slowly slipping out of playoff contention, and they are insane favorites in this spot.

I know Trubisky is trash, but 7-point favorites after how the Rams looked last week? Give me the Bears and the points all day.

Pick
  • Chicago Bears (+7)
    -110

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Lastly, we get a pretty huge MNF showdown between two AFC West monsters in the Chargers and Chiefs. Well, at least they used to be.

Patrick Mahomes may deserve a mulligan. Week 10 was his first game back, and even though he was pretty great, he didn’t do enough to get his Chiefs past the Titans.

That doesn’t sound right, but it surely is what happened. The Chargers, meanwhile, had a golden opportunity to climb out of the unsightly hole they dug themselves in to start the year, but couldn’t beat the Raiders.

What’s the takeaway here? The Titans and Raiders are good now? The Bolts are trash? KC isn’t a lock for the playoffs?

Maybe none of it, but the NFL is a weird place and it may take some time before I fully settle down from what’s gone on in just the first 10 weeks.

That said, the Chiefs are still the better team here, and betting against Patrick Mahomes isn’t something I’m a big fan of. The rust has been shaken off and Kansas City’s defense will hopefully be better.

If the Bolts were going to make a run at the division, something tells me they would have found a way to win last week. Or figured out to win their other numerous games decided by one score.

KC is the logical play here, and their -4.5 spread isn’t even asking that much.

Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
    -110

Summary

Like always, I don’t necessarily think placing bets immediately upon the release of weekly NFL betting lines is the right call.

However, I do think serious bettors always need to monitor lines on a regular basis, and not taking a look at those initial lines absolutely can see you missing out on elite betting value.

Looking back to week 9, you missed out on some nice upside if you liked the Miami Dolphins but opted to wait before placing your bet. Miami opened as +6.5-point dogs and had a nice +180 moneyline. They closed at +3.5 with a +160 moneyline.

It works both ways, and that difference isn’t egregious, but you get the idea. Some weeks, it may not matter so much, and waiting is pretty beneficial. Others, it can be the separation between you profiting or not.

Ultimately, this is all about getting your research process rolling each week. Hopefully, my week 11 NFL odds breakdown assists you in that. For more guidance with your NFL wagers, be sure to visit our NFL betting headquarters for the latest odds and expert predictions.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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