Updated Odds for the Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship (2021) – Can Hamilton Overtake Verstappen?

| November 9, 2021 8:26 am PST

Max Verstappen cruised to a comfortable win at the Mexican Grand Prix on Sunday to increase his lead over Lewis Hamilton in the World Drivers’ Championship standings.

The Red Bull man finished a whopping 16 seconds clear of his Mercedes title rival to clinch his ninth race win of the season. There is now a 19-point gap between the two drivers.

With only four races remaining in the 2021 Formula 1 season, the title battle is set to go right down to the wire. But who will come out on top?

Can Hamilton turn things around and secure a record-breaking eighth Drivers’ Championship? Or will Verstappen hold on to claim his maiden title?

In this post, I discuss the latest odds for the F1 Drivers’ Championship, look ahead to the remaining four races, and attempt to predict who will win the Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship in 2021.

Latest 2021 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship Odds

Max Verstappen1.33
Lewis Hamilton3.00
Valtteri Bottas501.00

Following Verstappen’s dominant win in Mexico City, all the best Formula 1 betting apps view the 24-year-old as the favorite to win the 2021 F1 Drivers’ Championship.

Hamilton’s price has slipped to 3.00 after finishing second at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodrigues. Still, so much can change between now and the end of the season.

As you can see, Valtteri Bottas is the only other driver who can technically clinch the title this year. But odds of 501.00 indicate that he is all but out of the race.

It’s time to take a closer look at the current Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship standings.

Current F1 Driver’s Championship Standings

Verstappen held a 12-point lead over Hamilton heading into the Mexican Grand Prix. Now, the Red Bull driver finds himself 19 points clear at the top of the standings.

Although Mercedes managed to seal a front row lockout for Sunday’s race, Verstappen overtook both Hamilton and Bottas before the first corner. He then led the way for the rest of the Grand Prix.

Here are the latest F1 Drivers’ Championship standings.

Driver Constructor Points
Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing 312.5
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes-Benz 293.5
Valtteri Bottas Mercedes-Benz 185

Verstappen now has nine Grand Prix wins to his name this season. Hamilton has won five races, while Bottas has just one race victory under his belt.

Sergio Perez (Red Bulls), Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren), and Esteban Ocon (AlphaTauri) are the only other drivers to have won a Grand Prix in 2021.

How will the standings change in the coming weeks? Let’s look ahead to the remaining four races.

Analyzing the Remaining Four Races This Season

With four races scheduled in the space of five weeks, we are set for a thrilling end to the 2021 Formula 1 season.

The next Grand Prix takes place at Brazil’s iconic Interlagos. Qatar and Saudi Arabia then make their F1 debuts before Abu Dhabi hosts the final race of the campaign.

Verstappen and Hamilton have both enjoyed success in Brazil and Abu Dhabi in previous years, but it is difficult to predict how they will fare in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

It’s time to analyze the upcoming races.

Sao Paulo Grand Prix

  • Date: Sunday, November 14
  • Track: Interlagos
  • Verstappen Wins: 1 (2019)
  • Hamilton Wins: 2 (2016, 2018)

The 2020 Sao Paulo Grand Prix was cancelled due to the pandemic. That means the last man to win a Formula 1 race at Interlagos is Verstappen.

The Dutchman qualified fastest back in 2019 and won the race by six seconds, with Pierre Gasly in second and Carlos Sainz in third.

Hamilton finished all the way down in seventh place after receiving a five-second penalty. He would have finished third had he not tangled with Alex Albon on lap 70.

It is worth noting that Interlagos is another high-altitude track, just like Mexico City. Verstappen’s Red Bull thrived in the Mexican conditions, while Hamilton’s Mercedes struggled to keep pace.

If the Mexican Grand Prix is anything to go by, then Verstappen should have the upper hand over Hamilton in Brazil.

Qatar Grand Prix

  • Date: Sunday, November 21
  • Track: Losail International Circuit
  • Verstappen Wins: N/A
  • Hamilton Wins: N/A

The inaugural Qatar Grand Prix is set to take place at the purpose-built Losail International Circuit, which has become a permanent fixture on the MotoGP calendar in recent years.

With 16 turns altogether, drivers will spend plenty of time cornering in Qatar – meaning tires will likely degrade quickly.

With a high level of tire degradation expected, team strategy could be key in Qatar. Both Verstappen and Hamilton will need their entire team to get everything right.

That said, the main straight is just over a kilometer in length. The circuit’s sole DRS zone provides drivers with the perfect opportunity to overtake, so we should see plenty of action.

Saudi Arabian Grand Prix

  • Date: Sunday, December 5
  • Track: Jeddah Corniche Circuit
  • Verstappen Wins: N/A
  • Hamilton Wins: N/A

The penultimate race of the season takes place in Saudi Arabia. Just like Qatar, the Jeddah Corniche Circuit is set to host its first-ever F1 Grand Prix.

At 6.175km, Jeddah is one of the longest circuits on the calendar. In fact, it will become the longest – and fastest – street circuit in Formula 1 history in December.

There have been concerns about whether or not the track will be ready to host a Grand Prix on December 5, as recent pictures show the circuit is still under construction.

However, the Saudi GP bosses have confirmed the race will go ahead as scheduled.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

  • Date: Sunday, December 12
  • Track: Yas Marina Circuit
  • Verstappen Wins: 1 (2020)
  • Hamilton Wins: 5 (2011, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019)

The campaign draws to a close in Abu Dhabi on December 12, as Formula 1 returns to the Yas Marina Circuit for the thirteenth consecutive year.

Although Verstappen won the previous Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, this race has been dominated by Hamilton over the years.

The Englishman has secured a record five Abu Dhabi Grand Prix victories, winning half of the last ten races at the Yas Marina Circuit. That should give him huge confidence heading into the final race of the year.

Having triumphed at two of the past three Abu Dhabi Grand Prix – and three of the previous five – Hamilton will fancy his chances of finishing atop the podium on December 12.

Does Verstappen Have the Edge Over Hamilton?

As it stands, Verstappen holds a 19-point lead over Hamilton in the standings. With only four races remaining this season, the Dutchman has the upper hand – at least for now.

But can Verstappen hold onto his lead? Well, there is no denying that Red Bull looks stronger than Mercedes at the moment.

The Milton Keynes-based manufacturer has won ten of the 18 races so far this year, with Verstappen winning nine and Perez winning one.

On the flip side, Mercedes has triumphed on just six occasions. Hamilton has five race wins to his name, while Bottas won the Turkish Grand Prix in October.

Of course, Hamilton is a seven-time world champion. But the Red Bulls are moving quicker than the Mercedes at the moment, giving Verstappen an edge.

It is also worth pointing out that Hamilton has only managed to win one of the past eight Grand Prix, with four of his five victories coming in the first ten races of the season.

Meanwhile, Verstappen has won four of the previous seven races and has also clinched eight of the last 12 poles.

Who Will Win the 2021 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship?

Ultimately, so much can change between now and the end of the season.

Although Verstappen is currently in pole position to clinch his maiden title, you would be foolish to write off Hamilton when it comes to betting on the Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship in 2021.

As we have seen already this year, Verstappen and Hamilton are not afraid to go wheel-to-wheel with each other. The two drivers have collided on more than one occasion this season.

Sure, the Dutchman is leading the overall race right now. But if the two rivals collide again and Verstappen ends up with a DNF, Hamilton could return to the top of the standings.

At this moment in time, the safe bet is Verstappen at 1.33. But if you’re looking for better value, why not back the seven-time champ at 3.00?

For more Formula 1 betting advice, check out the posts below.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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