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Updated Odds and Analysis for the 2021-22 College Football Playoff

By Dan Vasta in College Football
| September 15, 2021 5:42 am PDT

Week 2 of the 2021 college football season saw a few preseason paper Tiger champions suffer losses. Many preseason rankings are pure hype, and production will change when young teams go on the road to face adversity.

Only the strong survive in college football, and there have been consistent Top 10 teams losing thus far. The 2021-22 College Football Playoff odds are adjusting by the week. There are a select few that are seeing their odds shorten up.

It’s just week three, but things are changing, and bettors may want to adapt. That, or they want to strike now at the best college football betting sites.

To help you decide what to do, let’s look at the latest odds for this year’s College Football Playoff heading into week three.

Latest 2021-22 College Football Playoff Odds

Ohio State+1000
Texas A&M +2500
Penn State+4000
Notre Dame+5000

Is anyone shocked that the Crimson Tide are still pulling in as the favorite to win the title this season? They clock in as a +175 favorite at BetOnline.

Alabama has looked rather good to start the year, but bettors may want to question if their +175 price tag is a bit too shallow.

Georgia feels like the way better bet in terms of pricing.

They offer serious value at +400, and their defense is no joke. Once their offense fully kicks into gear, this team could be a legit title threat – just like I predicted before the season kicked off.

Oklahoma has the third best odds, but their defense is still suspect after allowing 35 points in a close win over…um…Tulane. That was in week one, but still.

The value only gets better from there, but you’re suddenly looking at teams like Ohio State and Clemson, who already ate a loss in this young college football season.

Let’s dive further into the College Football Playoff odds and gauge how you may want to bet going forward.

The Oregon Ducks Fly High

The Ducks and Buckeyes combined for over 1,100 yards of offense. Neither team displayed much defensive dominance in the track meet, but Oregon flexed their muscles on offense.

They dominated Ohio State at the line of scrimmage, paving the way for 269 yards rushing. CJ Verdell has been a stud for a while now, and he put together his best performance at Oregon.

Quarterback Anthony Brown made simple throws and was able to move the chains with his legs. He avoided costly turnovers and took what the defense gave him, which was plenty of open targets.

The value of the Ducks has sky-rocketed from +4000 to +1600, and they were understandably one of the biggest week two winners in college football.

Now they have the sixth best odds to win the national title.

If you were going to take a shot at them, last week was your chance. Had they lost to Ohio State, the odds would have gotten longer, but they still would have had a chance.

Oregon has had seven seasons since 2010 in the Top 25, but when they finish in the Top 25, they often become national title contenders. The defense got the job done without Kayvon Thibodeaux (ankle) and Justin Flowe (foot).

This team should be favored in the remainder of their games and have a solid chance to appear in the College Football Playoff.

Their offense hasn’t been this explosive since 2014, but the defense has stocked up athletes and depth to harass the opposing offenses. If they can get healthy, this team is fully capable of putting together an undefeated season after their monumental victory in Columbus.

Is Iowa a Contender?

The Hawkeyes are now at +5500 after they were an afterthought at getting to the CFP. They have a long way to go, but they are on the board for potential national title contenders.

Many had Iowa as the second or third team in their division entering the season. The Hawkeyes defense has been one of the better units in the country.

Here are their ranks in key categories thus far.

  • 11.5 points allowed per game (13th)
  • 286 yards allowed per game (23rd)

Jack Koerner and Riley Moss have been outstanding in the secondary, and their ability to turn Brock Purdy into a turnover machine was impressive. Jack Campbell has been playing like an all-world linebacker. The unison the team shares on defense is underrated.

They limited Breece Hall in the backfield and dominated the line of scrimmage against the Cyclones. The Hawkeyes were swarming to the ball and begged the Cyclones passing attack to beat them. When the Cyclones struggled, it was due to a lack of separation from the wide receivers. The Hawkeyes took advantage of that.

Iowa may not have been electric on offense with Spencer Petras, but their defense took over.

Iowa looks like the most impressive Big Ten squad thus far through Week 2.

They host Penn State in early October but avoid Michigan and Ohio State from the Big Ten East. A trip to Camp Randall on the day before Halloween could determine how special of a season this one becomes. A potential tiebreaker scenario could come into play against the Badgers.

Going back on the history of Iowa, the team has been lacking premier bowl appearances. Christian McCaffrey and Stanford took it to them in the 2016 Rose Bowl. Iowa has only appeared in a total of three BCS/NY6 games (1-2), and they have never won the Big Ten conference outright under Kirk Ferentz.

In 1985, Hayden Fry was the last Hawkeye coach to win the Big Ten. The previous outright conference title was in 1958 under Forest Evashevski. The season ahead could be unchartered territory for the Hawkeyes.

If they were to make the playoff before Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin, that would be one of the best storylines of the entire season.

Top Three vs. the Field

The top three teams in the polls and the eventual 2021 CFP rankings will likely be Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma. These teams all have exceptional defenses on paper, and they have passed the eye test through Week 2.

Oklahoma didn’t look great against Tulane, but they need to be in the discussion behind the two SEC juggernauts.

Despite being 0-4 in the CFP with an average margin of defeat at 18 points a game, the Sooners have a favorable schedule in the Big 12. Spencer Rattler is a Heisman contender for many folks still, but we have no idea who the fourth-best team out there is.

The Pac-12 and Big Ten have had odds change over the weeks. Oregon and Iowa are teams on the rise, and they are two of the top winners in the season thus far.

The Ducks and Hawkeyes aren’t perfect teams, but there is a path for success.

Oregon looks a bit more challenging with trips to Washington, Utah, and UCLA. The Bruins are another dark horse squad to watch out for, but the Pac-12 after dark is scary to watch. It has been unpredictable for years.

Iowa still has Penn State and Wisconsin, both of which are Top 10 caliber teams.

Others such as Clemson and Cincinnati are intriguing. If there was ever a chance for a Group of Five team to break through over the Power Five barrier of appearing in the CFP, this could be the year.

The Bearcats have road trips with Indiana and Notre Dame coming up. If they can somehow escape those two and run the table through a challenging American Athletic Conference, they would be more than worthy of sneaking into the playoff.

Poor clock management from Luke Fickell and Desmond Ridder prevented Cincinnati from nearly knocking Georgia off in the Peach Bowl. The pair will be in the spotlight these next few weeks as they look to continue to climb the rankings.

Betting on the 2021-22 College Football Playoff

We saw a few other teams either drop or move up their value for the odds to win the national championship. Florida played decently against South Florida, but we saw their odds get worse despite the win.

The Gators went from +3300 to +4000. Other teams around them improved their chances to win the national title due to competing in more challenging games.

Appearing in the CFP is a challenge for most teams. Seeing the odds alter was expected for Florida. The Gators could be a team that suffers at least three losses this season.

There has never been a two-loss team to reach the CFP. That is unlikely to change this year.

Most of these conferences cannibalize each other, and the Pac-12 has been known for that. 

Want to bet on college football, but aren’t sure which teams to back? Hit up our college football picks page for the latest odds and predictions.



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