Updated Odds for the 2021-22 College Football Playoff
The month of September is nearly complete. Upsets continue to happen, and odds are shortening up for some of the elite teams.
Georgia and Alabama at the moment are two of those teams and Oklahoma, Clemson, and Ohio State are far from sure things at the moment. All three of them struggled greatly this past weekend.
Florida even gave Alabama one fine finish at the Swamp, and Penn State has quietly moved into the top seven slots for most favorable odds. Iowa is ranked fifth, but the oddsmakers disagree with their ranking based on the value.
There is a lot to unwrap, so here are your latest odds to win the 2021-22 College Football Playoff national championship after three weeks.
College Football Playoffs Odds for Week 4
What has happened to the Buckeye defense? Their odds at most college football betting sites have dropped quite a bit.
The Buckeyes have games against Penn State and Michigan still on the slate. They were once near locks to win those games, but those teams are better than most expected.
Oklahoma and Clemson both struggled this past weekend, so their odds have gotten longer on most outlets. Clemson is a team that I would take a pass on (+1000).
Another loss will eliminate them from the CFP.
We have never had a two-loss squad appear in the playoff, and even if this season turns out to be like 2007, there are too many other teams that will run the table or have fewer than two losses.
The odds get interesting in the 6-15 range. Look even further for Wisconsin at +12,500. If the Badgers were to knock off Notre Dame and then Iowa, watch out.
A lot has to happen for them to be close to the top four, but the Badgers have a path. Here are the biggest takeaways from the latest CFP title odds entering Week 4.
Is Ole Miss a CFP Contender?
The Rebels are as good as it gets on offense these days.
Matt Corral has become the Heisman favorite, and the offense leads the nation in points per game (52.7). Most of America is clueless at how dominant they are as a rushing team.
The no-huddle is challenging to prepare for after three games. They already have four players with 100-plus yards. Snoop Conner, Henry Parrish, Matt Corral, and Jerrion Ealy are all studs. Running the ball out of the gun has been impressive, but the Rebels are sixth in the FBS averaging 298.7 yards per game.
The question about them is their defense and the schedule they have.
Ole Miss is on a bye before traveling to Tuscaloosa next week. They have to travel to the Plains and head to Auburn before hosting Texas A&M in November. Most national Top 25 contenders would lose at least two of those games and get knocked out of the title picture.
Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin are not like most teams currently. Their offense has been posting excellent numbers and has the goods to shock Alabama. Nobody will be picking the Rebels in the matchup.
If they were to lose that game convincingly, certainly the odds will indicate their slim chances of appearing in the CFP since Alabama would hold the tiebreaker. A Rebels victory would shake up the entire college football world. Are you ready for the matchup in two weeks?
The loss would likely cost Bama a shot at the SEC title, which could prevent them from reaching the CFP. We have seen the Tide make it and win it all without appearing in the conference title game, though.
Ole Miss could move up to the top two or three in the polls. At their current price of +5000, now is the time to jump on them as they enter their only bye week of the season.
Can the Group of Five Finally Reach the CFP?
Oklahoma is the best bet I have mentioned since the summer. However, could this be the season we see the Group of Five reach the playoff?
The Cincinnati Bearcats were not dominant over Indiana, but they found a way to sneak out of Bloomington with a victory over a respectable Big Ten squad.
Winning at Notre Dame in two weeks against an undefeated or a one-loss Irish squad will be vital. The only downside is the Golden Domers could lose three or more games this season.
Boise State was legit back when Kellen Moore was the quarterback. The 2011-12 season featured the Broncos, and they nearly appeared in the BCS title against Oregon.
They passed the eye test and knocked off all the challenges around them. There sadly was no playoff back then, so we saw added pressure on the little guys. Cincy is proving to be a giant after nearly upsetting Georgia in the Peach Bowl last season.
A 13-0 Bearcat squad could place them over a one-loss Big Ten and Pac-12 champion. If those power champs run the table, the Bearcats would get left out. However, I have brought up the 2007 season a few times due to all the chaos we have seen.
If there was ever a season in which a team like Cincinnati could reach the top four, this is it. Desmond Ridder and Luke Fickell continue to thrive as a team together.
Who Challenges the SEC?
Six of the top 16 are from the SEC. So, who outside the conference will challenge for the national championship?
Looking at the odds, Oklahoma still has value.
They keep struggling to blow out any team, but they have a great shot at running the table. Their annual battle with Texas looms largest since a loss could knock the Sooners out of playoff contention.
The Big 12 has struggled thus far, so a loss could prevent Oklahoma from reaching the playoff. If they manage to go 13-0, they could be favored to get to the national title game.
Georgia or Alabama will likely have a loss after their SEC title matchup. The loser should drop to the four seed, allowing Oklahoma to play either the Big Ten or Pac-12 champ. There will be no better opportunity to end an 0-4 drought with an average margin of defeat at 18 points per game.
The Sooners have the best chance to run the table over any team in the country.
Oregon is intriguing, and they should have a great shot despite their schedule. Road trips to UCLA, Utah, and Washington were all potential landmines for the Ducks. All three of those teams have suffered losses before October.
It is shocking to see so much parity after the top teams. The Ducks could have a return trip to the CFP and challenge for the national crown.
Wisconsin still has a realistic chance at winning the West and potentially running the table. They have a showdown with Notre Dame that will be revealing to their future.
Ohio State’s odds are dropping in most sportsbooks, and Penn State has to travel to the Horseshoe. It could be survival of the fittest in the Big Ten, but cannibalism is a possibility. They could all knock each other off and will likely have multiple one or two-loss teams.
Michigan is Rising
Don’t look now, but the Wolverines are a clear-cut top-five team in the Big Ten. At least, that is where we are at as we near October.
Ohio State still feels like they will get the last laugh and Penn State has two of the better wins of the entire national landscape over Auburn and Wisconsin. The West division has been solid, with the Badgers and Hawkeyes looking capable of a deep run.
Everybody had Michigan slated behind all of these teams back in the preseason. The run defense has been stout for Michigan, and their ability to run downhill on offense has made them impossible to defend.
Jim Harbaugh is at his best when he can control the clock and play a physical, smash-mouth brand of football. Going back to his Stanford days, Toby Gerhart was an unstoppable force that dominated most games during his Heisman-like senior campaign in 2009.
Michigan showed no fear against Washington, Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan, who are respectable out-of-conference foes.
Western Michigan upset Pitt on the road this past week, which will only help out the Wolverines after they routed them in the opener.
We will officially find out more about Michigan when they travel to Camp Randall in two weeks. Harbaugh is 0-11 as an underdog and 0-11 against AP Top 15 foes in road/neutral-site games.
Betting on the College Football Playoff in 2021-22
The 2021-22 college football season has been exhilarating so far. The hope is we will get more competitive games before the title game.
Finding the final four teams is going to be a joy ride for all the die-hard fans involved.
The sport is often fluid, and teams are changing every week. The locks have turned into stunning upsets, and there have not been many sure things this season. Week 4 is likely to have a few bumpy adventures along the way.
To get your week four college football betting going, take a look at the early lines.