UFC 269 Betting Preview with Predictions – Odds for Oliveira vs. Poirier and More

| December 8, 2021 12:29 pm PST

It’s fight week and what a card we have to look forward to.

The final numbered event of the year is going to be big business for two main reasons. The first is that it’s absolutely stacked. The second is that, well, betting on UFC 269 could make you some money.

I’ve picked out some of the best UFC 269 bets and sleepers for you to look at. But before we get to those, you should check out my predictions for all fights this Saturday from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

There are two championships on the line this Saturday. Amanda Nunes defends her women’s bantamweight crown on the co-main. Charles Oliveira will put his lightweight strap on the line against Dustin Poirier in the main event.

Let’s start there.

Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier

Oliveira Odds to Win+140
Poirier Odds to Win-160

Despite being pumped for this fight, I’m approaching my bets for UFC 269’s main event as I would any others.

I have questions about fighters that will influence the wagers I choose in the end.

The first question involves Dustin Poirier. An absolute stud at lightweight, I’m keen to see how he approaches this fight having earned back-to-back wins against the UFC’s star attraction, Conor McGregor.

Alongside gaining his revenge for an earlier defeat to the Irishman before one-upping him in the trilogy, Poirier also made money equivalent to the GDP of a small country. As the late, great Notorious BIG once said, “Mo’ money; mo’ problems.

In other words, if you’re looking at the UFC 269 odds for Poirier to beat Oliveira — and are not questioning whether all that money has made him a little softer or less hungry for this strap — I’d stop for a moment and do so.

Oliveira’s ascension to the top of the lightweight fold has been arguably even more impressive than that of Poirier.

Once regarded as a featherweight gatekeeper, “Do Bronx” is now king of the hill at 155. With a deceptive submission game and dangerously creative striking skills, it’s no wonder that the Brazilian is not being underestimated by his opponent.

Here are just two of the records Oliveira holds in the UFC.

  • Most UFC Submission Wins (14)
  • Most UFC Finishes (17)


From a technical standpoint, Oliveira is a monster. But there are questions about his chin that make his odds of +140, despite being the current champion, still too small for me.

Poirier is huge for a lightweight and should weigh north of 176 pounds on the night. If he can avoid being taken down early and wrapped up, he should have the run of things on the feet.

Oliveira was dropped by Michael Chandler in his title-winning fight, only to come back and get the victory. Against Poirier, he’s facing one of the hardest hitters and all-around best in the world.

The UFC 269 prediction for Oliveira vs. Poirier is a first-round KO for the “Diamond.”

  • Prediction: Poirier by KO/TKO (1)
  • Best Bet: Fight Under 2.5 Rounds -140

Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena

Nunes Odds to Win-900
Pena Odds to Win+600

You’ll struggle to find better odds for Amanda Nunes at UFC 269.

That is, quite simply, because Nunes sits on top of the best female fighters in the UFC. By some distance. We’re talking about the G.W.O.A.T. here. A phenom. A fighter that I have long run out of superlatives for.

But could Pena upset Nunes this Saturday? That’s the first question to ask yourself before betting on UFC 269.

In short, I wouldn’t rule it out entirely. Nunes has been at the top for so long that she’s due a shaky performance. There is an argument that she might be losing her love for the game, which could be amplified by the fact she is now a wife as well as a mother to a young girl.

The Brazilian is not getting any younger, either. Well, none of us are. But at 33, she is just one year older than the “Venezuelan Vixen.”

Pena is a strong contender but certainly not better than some of the fighters Nunes has plastered across the Octagon in her storied career to date.

Status Amanda Nunes
Record 21-4 (13 KOs)
Weightclass Bantamweight and Featherweight
Gym Affiliation American Top Team
Head Coach Conan Silveira
Rank/Accomplishments Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
Current UFC Ranking Bantamweight (C) Featherweight (C)
UFC Titles Bantamweight and Featherweight Championships
Biggest Wins Valentina Shevchenko (x2)
Cris Cyborg
Ronda Rousey
Germaine de Randamie (x2)
Holly Holm

A decent striker, Pena’s bread and butter is her strength.

She will look to dominate in the clinch before working the fight to the ground. If she can get top position, she will either rain down bombs or try and transition into a submission.

My UFC 269 prediction for Nunes vs. Pena is that, well, she’s unlikely to be able to outmuscle and outmaneuver the “Lioness” on the feet or on the ground.

The champion at 135 as well as 145, it’s hard to see anything other than another routine victory for the greatest woman in combat sports history. Other than a major fluke, I don’t see Pena having the tools for the job.

  • Prediction: Nunes by KO/TKO (3)
  • Best Bet: Nunes by KO/TKO -175

Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Neal Odds to Win+105
Ponzinibbio Odds to Win-125

I’m really looking forward to this one.

Alongside it possibly being the best sleeper for UFC 269, in terms of underappreciated fights, it could also be a great fight to bet on.

Argentina’s Ponzinibbio takes a record of 8-1 from his last nine fights into the cage with him. At one time it looked as though he had what it took to challenge for a championship, but frustrations inside and outside of the cage have held him back.

A surprising KO defeat to Li Jingliang in January was followed up with a more impressive performance in his decision victory over Miguel Baeza in the summer.

Geoff Neal comes into this fight on a two-fight skid.

Those losses, to Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny, mean that Neal must step up to the plate this weekend or run the risk of falling down the ladder.

I reckon the American will fancy his chances of testing Ponzinnibio’s chin from the get-go, and we could see a firefight break out as early as the opening exchanges.

Three of the four defeats of Pozinibbio’s pro run have come by way of KO/TKO. Neal and his camp will know this and will be going all-in on a big performance.

My UFC 269 predictions for Ponzinnibio vs. Neal are that it will be a great fight, but someone is getting smoked.

  • Prediction: Geoff Neal KO/TKO (2)
  • Best Bet: Neal to Win by KO/TKO +175

Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt

Kara-France Odds to Win+115
Garbrandt Odds to Win-135

If there has been a consistent theme running through my predictions and picks for UFC 269, it is how the presence of outside factors can shape many of these fights.

For former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt, the most influential aspect of his performance will likely be a successful weight cut. “No Love” drops down to 125-pounds for the first time, having failed in a previous attempt in 2020.

From the look of things, Garbrandt should make weight. But he doesn’t look great, does he?

Garbrandt’s nemesis, T.J Dillashaw, hopped down to flyweight in 2019 only to be knocked out by Henry Cejudo.

While Kara-France is no Cejudo, he is a solid fighter that is in his natural weight class. His only two losses in the UFC have come to Brandon Royval and the current champ, Brandon Moreno.

I really don’t see this going well for Garbrandt, who has had numerous health blips in the past. He developed pneumonia following a nasty battle with COVID, burst a bicep, and has back problems.

Depleting himself to make the 125-pound threshold is hardly going to make him a stud. Nor is it likely to help his chin.

I could be wrong, and “No Love” could look immense. But there’s no way that, if I’m betting on UFC 269, that I’ll happily add an experimental Garbrandt to my ticket.

  • Prediction: Kara-France to Win by KO/TKO (1)
  • Best Bet: Kara-France by KO/TKO +300

Raulian Paiva vs. Sean O’Malley

Paiva Odds to Win+235
O’Malley Odds to Win-300

It’s the return of the clown-haired, tattooed knockout artist.

That’s right, folks. O’Malley is back in the UFC following “that” fight against the then-obscure Kris Moutinho in the summer.

Moutinho earned himself mega props for standing up to the power of “Sugar” that night, with O’Malley only managing the stoppage with 27 seconds of the fight remaining.

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blackbelt Raulian Paiva will offer a stern test for the bantamweight contender. He’s on a three-fight win streak and aspires of his own title shot.

This is a tough one to call, as I can see Pava enjoying a lot of success on the ground if he can land his takedowns. The problem is getting inside Sugar’s jab, which is helped by a 3.5″ reach advantage.

Just one slip up by the Brazilian while navigating his way into range could see him starched. O’Malley will be keen to prove the Moutinho fight was a one-off, and he should score the KO/TKO.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Paiva pulling off an upset.

  • Prediction: O’Malley by KO/TKO (2)
  • Best Bet: Fight to End Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)

Prelims Predictions for UFC 269

Now for a look at my UFC 269 undercard predictions.

There are some potential bangers on this one, with the legendary Dominick Cruz appearing on the main prelim portion against Pedro Munhoz.

Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige could also be another one of the best fights to bet on at UFC 269.

Let’s get to it.

  • Josh Emmett to Beat Dan Ige by Decision
  • Dominick Cruz to Beat Pedro Munhoz by Decision
  • Tai Tuivasa to Beat Augusto Sakai by KO/TKO
  • Bruno Silva to Beat Jordan Wright by KO/TKO
  • Andre Muniz to Beat Eryk Anders by Submission
  • Miranda Maverick to Beat Erin Blanchfield by Decision 
  • Alex Perez to Beat Matt Schnell by Decision
  • Ryan Hall to Beat Darrick Minner by Submission
  • Randy Costa to Beat Tony Kelley by KO/TKO
  • Gillian Robertson to Beat Priscila Cachoeira by Decision

Now you’ve got all my top predictions for the fights down, let’s move on to my betting tips for UFC 269.

Top Betting Tips for UFC 269

This weekend’s UFC card has some excellent bouts to look forward to.

There are also plenty of chances to win money on the fights. So, if you haven’t learned how to bet on the UFC, I’d suggest reading up before you choose your bets.

The following picks for Saturday’s fights will help you either way.

Best Bets for UFC 269

Let’s get started with the smarter bets for the evening.

And where better to begin than with the main stars of the show.

  • Poirier vs. Oliveira to End Under 2.5 Rounds – Although I’m picking Poirier to win, Oliveira can pull this one-off. Either way, I think the fight will end inside the distance and before the halfway mark of the fight. At odds of -140, this is arguably the choice of the best picks for UFC 269.
  • Nunes to Win by KO/TKO – At odds of -175, Nunes is excellent betting value to become the second woman to earn a knockout over Pena. Given the odds for Nunes to win at UFC 269 are -900, it’s one of the top bets of the night.
  • Silva to Beat Wright by KO/TKO – The monstrous Silva should have far too much oomph for “The Beverly Hills Ninja.” The UFC 269 odds for the stoppage in favor of Silva are -165, which looks good to me.

Sleepers and Value Picks for UFC 269

These are my value bets and sleeper picks for UFC 269.

I have identified a few fights you could potentially claim some nice profits from.

Check ’em out.

  • Neal to Beat Ponzinibbio by KO/TKO – You can get a very appealing +175 for Neal to stop the Argentine. The only man to knock out Mike Perry, the power Neal carries could be too much for the questionable chin of his opponent.
  • Kara-France to Beat Garbrandt by KO/TKO – I’ll take odds of +300 on this all day long. I don’t see Garbrandt becoming one of the few exceptions that can drop down a weight and thrive. He will be tired, worn, and there for the taking.
  • Tuivasa vs. Sakai to End Under 1.5 Rounds – Plus money odds (+125) for this scenario look far too much to pass up. This one walks onto my list of the best sleepers for UFC 269, with serious value at the ready.

More Advice for Gambling on UFC 269

This card is stacked with great fights.

So, why not spend some time looking for value in some of the less-shiny bouts on the prelims? There is always the potential to find value backing the lower-tiered fighters on cards like this, given most bets for UFC 269 will be aimed at the main portion bouts.

You can find tons of odds and markets for MMA’s big show this weekend by visiting the best sportsbooks for betting on UFC fights.

With the year almost at an end, feel free to check out my 2021 UFC rankings on the men’s roster.

UFC Fighter Rankings for 2021 - Rating the Best Male Fighters in All Divisions

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Good luck!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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