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UFC 239 Betting – Take Your Chances With This +4900 Parlay

| June 27, 2019 12:00 am PDT

Jon Jones is back in the Octagon at UFC 239 on July 6 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and I’m keen to see how he deals with Thiago Santos on the night.

As if that fight wasn’t enough of a treat, we also have Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm co-headlining and the likes of Luke Rockhold, Sean O’Malley, Diego Sanchez, and Michael Chiesa also featuring.

And, as if you thought I forgot about the ridiculously exciting Jorge Masvidal vs. Ben Askren matchup?! Not a chance.

So, I have just gotten back from lunch with my buddy — probably the only guy out of many “fight fan” friends who actually knows his stuff — and we ran through our picks for UFC 239.

I knew this would be a great conversation for a blog, so I recorded our analysis using my phone.

Our method was to bring up the fights on the main card on my phone and write the winners’ names down on a piece of paper. While eating chicken.

As you can imagine, things got a little greasy…

I had no pen, as usual, but luckily for me, the kind Portuguese waitress was happy to help me out. Rather than tipping her, I gave her this awesome parlay recommendation instead. Of course, I am joking.

Anyway, back to the matter at hand.

Surprisingly, Danny and I were ALMOST identical with regards to our picks.

So, being the UFC betting nerds that we are, we ran these picks through the odds calculator, and my seven-card parlay came out at more than +4900.

I have to say I was very impressed with these odds. And, as usual, I had to come and let you guys know about it, too.

UFC 239 Parlay Betting

There are seven fights on the main card that we concentrated on.

From the Jones vs. Santos bout right down to the Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Jack Marshman scrap, we discussed why we picked these guys.

And considering this is your lucky day, I recorded our discussion and will essentially be transcribing it so that you can have a little read of our rationales. I think that will give you a pretty good idea of how we reached our decisions, right?

Danny and I took our picks from Bovada, one of our top recommendations for reputable sports betting sites. Keep in mind that the odds below are accurate at the time of writing but are also subject to change.

So, excited? I know I am to break these down and help you build your UFC 239 parlay.

If we pull this one off, there will be some serious money made.

Oh, and one last thing. AH is me, Adam Haynes, and DC is Danny. So, when you see these letters in front of the text, you’ll know who was giving their input!

Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos

  • DC’s Pick: Jones -600
  • AH’s Pick: Jones -600

DC: I’ll start first, dude. I have Jones winning this one in style. He looked pretty awesome against Alexander Gustafsson in December but wasn’t really himself against Anthony Smith in his last fight. I think he’ll make an impression here and show just how good he can be when faced with power hitters like Santos.

AH: I agree. Santos has those hands and can really cause trouble with his power. The only problem is that Jones has that super-freaky reach and can fight from outside of Santos’ range.

Santos is ultra-aggressive. Some mixed martial artists find it extremely difficult against pressure fighters, but Jon Jones is not one of them. If anything, he can turn this around on Santos and frustrate him into making mistakes.

DC: Like he did with “Rampage” Jackson?

AH: Exactly like he did with “Rampage.” That swinging, brawling style never cuts the mustard with Jones. The same goes for when he fought against Lyoto Machida years ago, who tried to swarm him when his Plan A didn’t work out.

Remember, Jones’ defense and distance management have improved a lot since then, too. Santos has explosive KO power, but he has to get to Jones to make it work.

DC: Absolutely. We’re agreed on this one.

Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm

  • DC’s Pick: Nunes -340
  • AH’s Pick: Nunes -340

DC: Is there anyone that can beat Amanda Nunes right now? I don’t think there is. She’s the female G.O.A.T.

AH: Watching what she did to Cris Cyborg gave me goosebumps. The hairs on the back of my neck were literally standing up. I was cold watching it.

Then I remembered that I left the window open.

DC: Haha. Yeah, that will do it.

AH: All jokes aside, I had Cyborg down to stop Nunes. I couldn’t believe it when she stood there and busted her open like a pinata. Nunes has scary power and is not afraid of anything. She has such a great chin, too.

One thing I will say is that Holm is a fantastically gifted striker. Her background in boxing and kickboxing makes her a dangerous matchup if she can use lateral movement and use those feints and setups for that very special head kick.

DC: Isn’t she just a little too old now? She has lost to weaker fighters in the past, so I think Amanda runs through her.

AH: Yeah. Unfortunately for Holly, I have to agree with you there.

Jorge Masvidal vs. Ben Askren

  • DC’s Pick: Masvidal +160
  • AH’s Pick: Masvidal +160

DC: Dude, this fight.

AH: I know. I can’t wait. It’s just… so right.

DC: Badass striker vs. crazy professor wrestler. It makes sense to me.

AH: Me too. Though, if I hadn’t watched Askren fight Lawler — and seen him take so much punishment — I’d probably opt for Jorge to KO him early. I still think that’s very possible, especially if Masvidal can get to him in the first couple of minutes.

DC: I rate Ben. I really do. But as you know, Jorge is my boy. I just love watching the dude fight. He has very underrated BJJ, too.

AH: Absolutely. His wrestling is underrated as well. Particularly his takedown defense. With that said, he is going up against one of the very best in the business. That funk wrestling of Askren’s is ridiculous.

Sure, it’s high risk against some guys, but I think we’ll see Askren go for it against Masvidal.

DC: Are you leaning towards Askren, Mr. Haynes?

AH: It’s a tough one, I’ll give you that. I just think Masvidal gets to him early and gives Ben something to think about. He will respect his power once he feels it.

DC: I’m going for a Masvidal KO.

AH: Yeah, I can definitely see that happening. That was my initial prediction, and I’m standing by it.

DC: Oh, and check it out. Masvidal is a +160 underdog here. That’ll beef the parlay up a little.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Luke Rockhold

  • DC’s Pick: Rockhold -170
  • AH’s Pick: Rockhold -170

DC: Rockhold can be such a tool at times.

AH: Why does he get so much hate? I mean, is there another fighter on the roster that has not been popped for ‘roids or has blasted someone after the bell — hell, even crashed their truck into a pregnant woman — to get so much hate?

DC: He just makes me cringe, man. Wasn’t he modeling for Calvin Klein or something? Why doesn’t he go back to that? If Blachowicz catches him, he won’t be able to as his face will not be fit for purpose.

AH: He was the “face” of Ralph Lauren cologne. Not a bad gig, on the side. Plenty of free cologne, at least.

DH: True.

AH: So, big man, how does Rockhold do in his light heavyweight debut?

DH: As much as I hate to admit it, he comes out of this one smelling of roses.

AH: Or Ralph Lauren cologne?

DH: Whatever you want it to be, buddy.

Diego Sanchez vs. Michael Chiesa

  • DC’s Pick: Chiesa -315
  • AH’s Pick: Chiesa -315

DC: Chiesa or Rockhold? Who would you prefer to be a chauffeur for — if you had to do that job for the rest of your life?

AH: Come on, we all know Chiesa prefers to ride the bus…

DC: Unless Conor McGregor is around, right?

AH: Right. No, seriously, this fight should be pretty awesome. Sanchez has put his first two-fight streak together since 2011. He looked very good against Gall, too, in his last bout.

Sanchez is a legend. But after seeing what Chiesa did to Carlos Condit, I have to pick him for this one. There is part of me that so badly wants to pick Diego here — the guy is an absolute legend — but I’m picking Chiesa, reluctantly.

DC: Sanchez starched Mickey Gall in his last fight and looked pretty damn good to me. At the same time, I think Chiesa is smart enough to bore the hell out of him and get the job done.

I’m on the same page as you — Chiesa wins this one.

Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera

  • DC’s Pick: O’Malley -155
  • AH’s Pick: O’Malley -155

AH: Is there a cooler young guy in MMA than “Sugar” right now?

DC: Nah, he’s awesome. I love watching him fight. He has a big future ahead of him, too.

AH: Agreed. Still, Marlon Vera is a step up for him. He has some provin’ to do in this bout and will need to be at his best against the Ecuadorian.

Vera has a solid submission game, too, so O’Malley will have to be careful. He was subbed twice in the “ammies” but has seemed to improve in this department hugely over the past few years.

DC: O’Malley is, what, a brown belt in BJJ?

AH: He’s a purple belt. Vera is a black belt with 7 subs in 19 pro fights.

Still, I can see the lanky “Sugar” having too much for him on the feet. I don’t think he’ll stop Vera but will take a decision on the cards.

DC: Sounds good to me. Malley for the win.

Jack Marshman vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

  • DC’s Pick: Shahbazyan -365
  • AH’s Pick: Marshman +275

AH: Okay, it seems we disagree on this one, having agreed on the previous six.

So, in your own words, Danny, please explain to me why I’m wrong and you’re right.

Go!

DC: I watched Shahbazyan on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series last year. I liked what I saw. In fact, I remember sending you a WhatsApp message after every episode with names I thought would make it in the UFC.

And he was one of them.

AH: Oh, you mean THAT message. Right. I might have glanced at it, I guess.

DC: Nah, seriously. He is a prospect. Check this out, he has gone…

At this point, Danny picks up his phone to check out Edmen Shahbazyan’s stats.

DC: … he is 9-0 in pro-MMA, with 8 KOs. He starched Charles Byrd at UFC 235 in the first round and has only ever gone past the first round once in his career. That was in The Ultimate Fighter Finale against Darren Stewart in November.

AH: Well, therein lies the problem for me.

Sure, he has looked good — from what I have seen of him — but Marshman is a tough nut. He is a 31-fight pro who is an active British soldier.

Marshman has proven stamina and the ability to take a smack, and I think he could use this to his advantage. Shahbazyan can bang, but the Welshman is a step up for him.

Marshman is also fighting for his UFC career. He is 2-3 in his last 5 and runs the risk of being cut if he can’t win this one.

DC: A win for Edmen would put him in a pretty comfortable position and would be a nice push on the hype train for him.

AH: Marshman’s odds of +275 are exceptional.

DC: That’s ‘cause he’s gonna lose, dude.

AH: Nope, he’s winning this fight. He’ll drag Shahbazyan to the cards where he’ll get the nod.

DC: We’ll see whose predictions come through on this one.

Anyway, pass the dessert menu.

AH: Speaking of predictable…

How the Parlay Adds Up

So, here’s the seven-pick parlay that I put together with Bovada.

Jones-600
Nunes-340
Masvidal+160
Rockhold-170
Chiesa-315
O’Malley-155
Marshman+275

A $100 bet on my parlay will net you $4,967.41, including your stake.

Not too shabby at all.

Danny’s parlay is almost identical, but he has opted for Shahbazyan at -365 instead of Marshman at +275.

Jones-600
Nunes-340
Masvidal+160
Rockhold-170
Chiesa-315
O’Malley-155
Shahbazyan-365

A $100 bet on Danny’s parlay will net you $1,621.53, including your stake. 

What Will You Do Next?

As you can see, there is a great chance of making some serious profit on the fights at UFC 239 on July 6.

I am confident that all of my picks can come through, but in sports betting, there is no such thing as a sure thing. This is gambling, after all, and it should be fun rather than an exercise in trying to make money.

A nice win would be a pretty good bonus, though.

More than anything, I am stoked to see if I can take the bragging rights over Danny with my choice. If Marshman wins, he’s buying the beers…

Even if I win.

Final Thoughts

Parlays are fun — and come with some great odds — but landing multiple predictions can be difficult.

On a personal level, I always enjoy a parlay with a UFC card as stacked as this one. If you are unsure as to what it all entails, you can get some solid parlay betting advice here.

If parlays are not your thing, why not check out my piece on the UFC 239 headline bout?

Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos looks set to be a tough matchup for the UFC lightweight champion. Even though I’m backing Jones to win, there are some that feel otherwise.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments section below!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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