Top Strategies for Betting on the English Premier League

| August 11, 2021 6:20 am PST

The English Premier League is the most popular soccer competition in the world, so it’s not a big surprise it also attracts the most wagers.

Millions of people bet on the league and most of them end up losing money. If you want to avoid that fate, you should work hard and find the best EPL betting strategies.

That’s not an easy task, but this post can certainly help you get started. It features general tips and specific EPL gambling strategies for the most common types of wagers.

I cover the following topics.

Basic Strategy Tips for EPL Betting

Before we get stuck into some more advanced Premier League betting strategy, let’s start with a few basic strategy tips for EPL betting to get you going.

They apply to most markets you can find online, so you shouldn’t ignore them.

The EPL is Fiercely Competitive

When it comes to betting on the Premier League, it is important to remember that England’s top division is widely regarded as one of the most competitive soccer leagues in the world.

Due to the competitive nature of the league, the so-called “smaller” teams often upset the EPL odds and get the better of the “top” clubs. For that reason, you should always bet on the Premier League with caution.

Just because teams are struggling towards the bottom of the table, it doesn’t mean they can’t produce a performance good enough to take points off sides pushing for the title.

Leicester City’s remarkable 2015/16 title triumph sums up the unpredictability of the EPL perfectly. After narrowly avoiding relegation the season before, the Foxes stunned everyone by clinching the trophy.

At the end of the day, anyone can beat anyone in the Premier League.

Look for Value in the EPL Odds

Don’t just look for the favorites and back them to win every game. Instead, spend time looking at the prices and find value in the bookies’ Premier League odds.

Sure, you will probably win plenty of wagers by betting on the most likely outcome every time. But if you want to make a significant profit, you will need to scour the EPL odds and find the best possible value.

There are multiple factors to consider when it comes to finding value in betting odds. Head-to-head records, home advantage, and recent form are just some of the aspects you should be taking into account.

Make sure you leave no stone unturned.

Research the Teams and Players

Even if you know nothing about the Premier League’s teams and their players, you can simply look at the EPL odds and base your wagers on what the bookies make of a matchup. But that isn’t always the best thing to do.

In fact, studying the players and teams is one of the best basic strategy tips for betting on the Premier League.

Considering the EPL is the most popular soccer league on the planet, you can find tons of useful information about every single player online. Studying the teams’ history can give you an edge over the bookies, too.

To give yourself the best possible chances of landing your Premier League bets, it’s a good idea to familiarize yourself with all the teams and players.

Other EPL Betting Tips

Let’s wrap up this section by checking out a few more strategy tips for betting on the EPL.

  • Start With Small Bets – If you’re totally new to Premier League betting, start with small stakes and don’t get carried away.
  • Make the Most of All the Markets – Rather than only using the most popular EPL betting markets, broaden your horizons and take advantage of all the options.
  • Follow the Season Closely – While you can bet on the EPL without following the season, you will enhance your chances of winning money by watching games and staying on top of the action.

Check out our English Premier League betting guide for more helpful tips. If you want to take it right back to basics, head over to our guide on how to get started with soccer betting.

Strategies for Betting on EPL Games

As I have already mentioned, betting on Premier League games is not straightforward. With so many high-class teams crammed into one division, it is vital that you develop a trusted strategy for betting on EPL matches.

One of the most important aspects to consider is the home advantage. With their fans cheering them on, teams generally perform better at their own stadium. This means even the best sides can struggle when they play away from home.

You should also study head-to-head records between clubs. For various reasons, certain teams always seem to enjoy success against particular opponents, while other sides invariably struggle in specific fixtures.

Researching recent form is vitally important, too. For example, the bookies could view Manchester City as the overwhelming favorite to beat Burnley. But if the Cityzens are going through a rough patch and the Clarets are on a solid unbeaten run, backing Man City might not be the best idea.

Ultimately, there are lots of factors to take into account when it comes to building a betting strategy for Premier League games.

In terms of specific strategies, here are three of my personal favorites.

  • Betting on home underdogs playing against favorites who have just played in a European competition.
  • Using handicap betting to back heavy favorites.
  • Backing goal-based markets for games that feature high/low-scoring teams.

Strategies for Betting on EPL Outrights

Betting on EPL outrights is always fun. From wagering on the champion to predicting the Golden Boot winner, and from betting on the top-four race to gambling on the relegation battle, there are tons of Premier league futures out there.

Naturally, there are plenty of tips for betting on EPL futures, too. But in my eyes, studying the history books has to be the number-one strategy for Premier League outright betting.

As the table below details, four different teams won the EPL title in six years between 2016 and 2021 – underlining the competitive nature of the English top-flight. However, Man City won three of the four titles between 2018 and 2021 – pointing towards an era of dominance.

RECENT PREMIER LEAGUE CHAMPIONS
Season Team
2015/16 Leicester City
2016/17 Chelsea
2017/18 Manchester City
2018/19 Manchester City
2019/20 Liverpool
2020/21 Manchester City

In terms of betting on which teams will get relegated, it is worth noting that newly-promoted clubs often go straight back down. In the history of the Premier League, there have only been three occasions on which all three promoted sides escaped the drop.

There are also different strategies required for betting on player awards, in particular the Golden Boot. Backing a homegrown player to scoop the prize is normally a good idea, as nine of the 24 EPL Golden Boot winners are English (37.5%).

Here are my top three strategies for betting on EPL outrights.

  • Backing newly-promoted teams to get relegated.
  • Using previous Young Player of the Year winners to predict the Player of the Year award.
  • Backing up-and-coming teams to finish in the top half of the table.

Strategies for Betting on EPL Props

The number of markets offered for the English Premier League can be staggering. On top of the standard markets for matches and futures, you can usually pick from a bunch of props.

The most popular and probably lucrative markets of this type are for a single game. For example, you can place a wager on any player to score a goal or get booked.

Betting on EPL props for single matches is mostly about analyzing the following key factors.

  • Trends – Evaluate the latest short-term trends. Look for the form of specific players or teams, try to figure out where they might be heading.
  • Comparing the Two Sides – Try to figure out how the styles of the two teams involved would interact. Determine which side has the better weapons to take advantage of the opponent’s weaknesses.
  • Other Factors – Depending on the exact EPL prop bet you are about to target, factors like the referee, the weather, the condition of the pitch, and the home advantage might play a huge role.

The key here is to determine every single component that could have an impact on the market and include it in your preparation. There’s no straightforward strategy for all props, so your ability to adapt and recognize the finer details is crucial here.

The same applies to long-term props. Some bookmakers online offer markets like next manager to get sacked, over/under points collected by a certain team, and many more.

Once again, you should start your strategy with a list of factors that affect the potential outcome.

And here are my favorite strategies for betting on EPL props.

  • Betting on reckless players to get booked in matches with a strict referee.
  • Betting on in-form strikers to score at any time.
  • Betting on struggling managers that are employed by notoriously impatient clubs to get sacked next.

Strategies for Live EPL Betting

A lot of people prefer live betting on EPL games and it’s easy to understand why. You can rely on the eye test and your immediate observations, there are some unique markets at your disposal, and your wagers are settled quickly.

It’s a nice combination, but in-play wagers on the English Premier League can be tricky too. For a start, you have to both watch the matches and follow the stats. The combination of your subjective impressions and the objective numbers is the best way to get the full picture.

It’s about spotting trends that are not obvious or at least, not properly reflected by the odds. Once you find those, you should place your wagers.

Another important tip is to avoid betting right after important events. Soccer is a sport in which the momentum shifts often. Any major event could change the course of the game dramatically. Here are the most obvious ones.

  • Goals – You never know how the two sides would react after a goal is scored.
  • Red Cards – Once a player is sent off, both sides are forced to make tactical changes and readjust their strategies.
  • Half-Time Break – Both head coaches have around 15 minutes to improve their sides and we often see major changes after the interval.
  • Missed Penalties – A penalty miss could motivate the team that got away with it, so you should always wait to see how both sides are affected.
  • Injuries – Any injury is impactful and even more so if star players are forced to leave the pitch.

It’s important to stay patient in such scenarios and see what happens. Several minutes might be enough to understand the direction on certain occasions, while it might take longer sometimes.

All the standard tips for live soccer betting apply too. With that in mind, here are few EPL live betting strategies that I like a lot.

  • Betting on late goals in games where one of the teams is leading with a single goal and the opponent is about to push for an equalizer, leaving a lot of space for counters.
  • Betting on visibly frustrated players to get booked by the referee.
  • Betting on overs in goalless games that are very open and both sides are trying to score hard.

Strategies for EPL Parlays/Accumulators

Another viable option would be to try EPL accumulators or parlays. Combining several different matches can lead to excellent odds and high returns.

Of course, the probability to win is lower and you should account for that. A more conservative staking plan is required because losing streaks are more common. Make sure to protect your bankroll accordingly, so you don’t go broke.

You should also keep your eyes open for promotions. Many EPL betting sites have acca boosters or similar offers that could bring you up to 20-25% on your returns depending on the number of selections you include in your accumulators. That could make the difference between winning and losing in the long run.

Outside of these two factors, the main principle in EPL accumulators betting is not much different than other strategies. You should approach every selection the same way you would approach a single wager. Make sure that the odds are worth it before you include it to your accumulator.

Here are three strategies for EPL accumulators/parlays that I prefer using.

  • Combining few outcomes with a high probability with an upset to further boost the odds.
  • Picking multiple strong favorites from different European leagues on the same weekend.
  • Going for goals to be scored in the opening half in multiple games that are expected to be wide open right from the start.

More EPL Betting Advice from Our Experts

The English Premier League is one of the soccer competitions we cover the most extensively, so you can constantly find more betting advice on EPL blog. We analyze long-term events and markets, share our opinion on certain players, and publish many other exciting posts.

We also often recommend specific bets in our EPL picks section. It includes both predictions for English Premier League games and picks for futures. Here are the latest entries.

Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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