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Top Props for Canelo vs. Plant – Picking the Best Specials for Saturday’s Historic Fight

| November 4, 2021 1:19 pm PDT

Let’s talk about the best prop bets to place on the Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant fight.

The historic bout goes down this Saturday, November 6 at MGM Grand Garden Arena. It marks the very first time that the undisputed super middleweight championship of the world will be on the line. 

Although the fight should be a spectacle, winning real money on props for Canelo vs. Plant would certainly make it a more enjoyable occasion.

Since the markets opened, I’ve been putting together a list of the top specials that stand out among a sea of potential wagers. I’ll be breaking down my favorite props for Canelo-Plant for you ahead of the big fight and making my picks from what’s available right now.

Before we get things going, you can find all the odds and markets I’ll cover below at the following recommended sites for betting on Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant.

Alternatively, feel free to jump straight into my picks.

Method of Victory Odds for Canelo vs. Plant

The first port of call in my top props for Canelo vs. Plant is the method of victory markets. 

First, let’s look at what you can get for predicting how the bout ends.

Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance-250
Fight to Go the Distance+174
Draw+2500
Canelo Alvarez and Caleb Plant

As you can see, the bookies favor the bout to end in a stoppage. I do, too.

Canelo is far too powerful and bullish for the American to handle.

As I see it, the unified champ should be able to find a way of getting his man out of there before the final bell sounds. I’ll be looking at rounds betting markets and predicting when this one ends a little later. So, don’t go anywhere until you’ve checked them out. 

Before we do that, you might be aware that you can make money betting on Canelo vs. Plant by choosing who wins and how.

Here are the odds for a Canelo KO/KO, a Plant decision, and more. 

Prop Bet Odds
Canelo by KO, TKO, or DQ -200
Canelo by Decision or Technical Decision +215
Plant by Decision or Technical Decision +1000
Plant by KO, TKO, or DQ +2000
Draw or Technical Draw +2200

I’m confident that most of the Canelo vs. Plant prop bets will be related to a stoppage for the Mexican.

The number one pound-for-pound boxer on the planet is lightyears ahead of most fighters in his division.

While that doesn’t guarantee he will have it all his own way this Saturday, a quick glance at Plant’s resume tells you that the unbeaten challenger is in trouble.

Canelo by stoppage looks the best bet here.

  • Pick: Canelo Alvarez by KO/TKO (-200)

Totals Props for Canelo vs. Plant

If you’re looking for the best prop bets to place on Canelo vs. Plant, you can’t look past totals.

Although not technically counted as proposition bets, totals are often posted by the top boxing gambling apps alongside their main props. They are up there with the most popular markets for betting on big fights and that will be the same for Saturday’s historic bout. 

To win money on these markets, you must accurately predict whether the fight will end over or under a set round. 

Easier said than done, sure, but there is an element of skill involved that makes them exciting.

Round Over Under
1.5 -5000 +1800
2.5 -2000 +1000
3.5 -1000 +600
4.5 -600 +400
5.5 -400 +275
6.5 -250 +175
7.5 -187 +138
8.5 -137 +100
9.5 +105 -150
10.5 +120 -162
11.5 +136 -156

In my betting picks for Canelo vs. Plant, I predicted a 6th round KO/TKO for the unified champion.

Under 6.5 rounds pays out at odds of +175. That means you will see a return of $175 if Alvarez gets him out of there by that time.

I believe it’s certainly worth betting on, but at the same time, the odds here are good enough to set yourself as far back as under 8.5 rounds (+100).

If you’re as confident as I am that Canelo will beat Plant under 6.5, go for it. But taking the safer option is also an idea. It might even be worth putting a unit on both.

  • Pick: Canelo Under 8.5 Rounds (+100)

Best Prop Bets for Canelo Alvarez

Canelo is the clear favorite for this fight. Furthermore, most pundits and experts believe it will be an early night for the Mexican.

Is there a way to cash in on Canelo’s savagery? Let’s take a look.

Canelo Group Round Bets

Canelo to Win in Rounds 1-3+750
Canelo to Win in Rounds 4-6+350
Canelo to Win in Rounds 7-9+300
Canelo to Win in Rounds 10-12+450
Canelo to Win on Points+210

If you’re looking to bet on props for Canelo vs. Plant, this market might be of interest.

In line with my prediction for the fight, I like the look of Rounds 4 to 6 at +350. Canelo has promised a stoppage by the 8th, but I think he can get it done earlier than that.

  • Pick: Rounds 4-6 (+350)

Canelo to be Knocked Down

To be Knocked Down+550
Not to be Knocked Down-1200
To be Knocked Down and Win+600

There are some interesting prices here.

But the odds for Canelo to be knocked down, or to be knocked down and win, are not appealing to me at all. I mean, Plant does not have a lot of pop to his shots while Alvarez’s chin is granite.

If you’re intent on betting on this market, the only wager that makes sense is for Canelo not to be dropped. But at odds of +1200, I would pass.

  • Pick: Avoid this Market

Alternative Props for Canelo

Canelo to Win in an Even-Numbered Round+175
Canelo to Win in an Odd-Numbered Round+175
Canelo to Win and No Knockdowns+225
Canelo to Have a Point Deducted+1400
Canelo Win on Points with Point Deducted for Either Fighter+1600

When it comes to betting on a fighter to win in an even or odd round, there’s not a lot of skill involved. 

It’s more of a guessing game. A flip of the coin, if you will. Even though I have predicted a Round 6 victory, which is even, it’s conceivable that a stoppage could come in either the preceding or subsequent rounds.

The other props and specials for Canelo here aren’t really doing it for me. There’s a higher chance of winning money on other markets, so I’m going to give the bets above a pass.

  • Pick: Avoid

Top Props for Caleb Plant

Only Floyd Mayweather has officially beaten Canelo Alvarez inside the ropes.

Plant, however, has never tasted defeat. But while Canelo has fought the best of his generation, Plant’s resume leaves a lot to be desired.

Thinking of chancing your arm with a few props for Plant to win? Let’s see what’s available.

Plant Group Round Bets

Plant to Win in Rounds 1-3+5000
Plant to Win in Rounds 4-6+4000
Plant to Win in Rounds 7-9+4000
Plant to Win in Rounds 10-12+5000
Plant to Win on Points+1000

I don’t envisage Plant taking anything into the ropes that will greatly trouble Canelo.

The bottom line is that he gets beaten. And beaten well.

The bookies agree, given the astronomical odds-on offer for Plant in the markets above. But are any of them worth small change? Or would it be best to just flush your money down the nearest toilet?

If Plant somehow wins this fight, it will not be by knockout. Only two of his last eight fights have ended by way of stoppage. His last bout, against Caleb Truax, went the distance.

The only conceivable way that he gets the job done is on points, so you can forget about the group rounds.

If you’re intent on betting on Plant to beat Canelo, come back down to earth for a moment. I might not be able to convince you that he has little to no chance of winning. So, if you’re going to wager on him, take him to get the job done on the scorecards.

I still think there are much better options elsewhere.

  • Pick: Plant to Win on Points (+1000)

Plant to be Knocked Down

To be Knocked Down-250
To be Knocked Down in Rounds 1-6-110
Not to be Knocked Down+175
To be Knocked Down and Win+1400

Although Plant possesses solid defensive acumen, he has never faced anyone of Canelo’s ilk before. I believe it’s inevitable that he will be stopped, which more than likely means he will be dropped.

Sometimes, a fighter can be stopped on their feet, but it’s a rarity that they haven’t put face-to-canvas before that. 

I think the best choice here is to go for Plant to be knocked down in the first half of the fight.

  • Pick: Plant to be Knocked Down in Rounds 1-6 (-110)

Individual Rounds Betting Odds for Canelo vs. Plant

Longshot odds for Canelo vs. Plant props don’t get any better than in this market.

But predicting the precise round that Canelo will beat Plant in or vice versa will involve a little bit of luck. There are 24 potential ways to go in this market, and the prices reflect that.

Let’s take a look.

Round Canelo Alvarez Caleb Plant
1 +2800 +10000
2 +2200 +10000
3 +1800 +10000
4 +1400 +8000
5 +1100 +8000
6 +1000 +8000
7 +900 +8000
8 +900 +8000
9 +1000 +8000
10 +1100 +10000
11 +1400 +10000
12 +1800 +10000

When it comes to betting specials for Canelo-Plant, it’s easy to see huge odds and just take a shot.

But I’d recommend keeping your feet on the ground. The best way to do this is to eliminate things that are unlikely to happen and incorporate some logic into your picks. 

I put together an early preview with analysis of Canelo vs. Plant back in September. The odds have changed since then, so ignore those, but the rest of the content will demonstrate why he faces a momentous task on Saturday night.

I’d look past Plant’s odds to win the fight in any of the rounds above. That might not be what you want to hear, especially with such huge odds-on offer, but it’s extremely unlikely that he stops his opponent.

That leaves us with when Canelo wins the fight. 

If you have read my picks for the Canelo vs. Plant prop bets above, you’ll know I like Alvarez by KO/TKO by stoppage in the 6th. But would it make more sense to place a $100 stake on Canelo to win in that round?

Or maybe it would be better to pick two to three rounds and spread that $100 stake across, say, 5, 6, and 7? That is up to you. 

Logically, it makes sense to lower your exposure. Perhaps play a less bold move when the odds are sweet enough to throw 1/3 of your total stake across those three rounds.

There is the option of picking group rounds, but the odds are not as appealing.

Picks:

  • Canelo in Rounds 5 (+1100)
  • Round 6 (+1000)
  • Round 7 (+900)

What are the Best Prop Bets for Canelo vs. Plant?

I’ve laid out my picks for Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant props that could certainly win you money on the fight.

Are they the best on offer? I certainly think so.

If you are familiar with using expert boxing betting strategies, you will understand my methods for identifying what markets are best to target. If not, make sure to invest some time in teaching yourself what matters when gambling on boxing.

But there could be more top props and specials for Canelo-Plant that I have missed. That’s why it’s always worth looking through what the top sites are offering for yourself.

Here’s a reminder of our recommended sites for betting on Canelo vs. Plant. Make sure to shop around for odds on all these sites to get some real bang for your buck.

Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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