Top DFS Picks for UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
MMA DFS is back on February 6th, when Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov give fans an intense heavyweight clash at UFC Fight Night.
It’s a bummer everyone had to wait that long, especially since UFC 257 was so engrossing.
My MMA DFS picks weren’t perfect for that event, with Conor McGregor tunnel vision being my big downfall.
Notorious was favored, and he’s a monster, though, so I feel like it’s a forgivable offense. Beyond that gaffe, I did deliver big winners with Makhmud Muradov and Michael Chandler both getting KO wins and Amir Albazi getting a Decision to go his way.
Antonio Carlos Jr. was pretty good value and at least went the distance, while Ottman Azaitar was one of my favorite daily fantasy MMA picks, and his fight was canceled.
Overall, it was a good night, and some Dustin Poirier exposure in other lineups helped me cash.
Hopefully, you made it into the green, as well. To help you do so again for UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov, let’s break down my favorite MMA DFS picks.
Cory Sandhagen ($9.4k)
My favorite play going into the weekend is easily Sandhagen, who is a massive favorite against an aging Frankie Edgar.
I love Edgar’s fight and spirit, and he is pound-for-pound one of the toughest MMA fighters you’ll find. He’s still clawing for a shot at a title, but at age 39, his best days are surely behind him.
Adam Haynes breaks this fight down beautifully in his Sandhagen vs. Edgar betting preview, but the main takeaway is that Edgar is probably a bit too far past his prime to get this one.
He knows what he has to do, too.
Frankie Edgar: I have to finish Cory Sandhagen if I want UFC title shot https://t.co/QnIAC8qPrT— MMA Junkie (@MMAjunkie) January 30, 2021
Unfortunately, that seems unlikely. Sandhagen has been finished just once in his career, while the aging Edgar has precisely one finish in his last eight trips inside the Octagon.
To be fair, Edgar’s three recent defeats have come against amazing fighters in Brian Ortega, Max Holloway, and The Korean Zombie.
But Edgar just isn’t getting it done, and he loses size, length, and versatility to the rangy Sandhagen. He’s pricey, but this feels like a locked-in win with most UFC betting sites listing Sandhagen as a massive -400 favorite.
He’s a building block for your UFC Fight Night daily fantasy lineups this week.
Alistair Overeem ($7.6k)
Overeem’s soft chin has been well documented, and I 100% have cause for pause as he takes on a guy in Alexander Volkov that has 24 fights by stoppage (21 by KO/TKO).
Overeem is very beatable, but Adam Haynes broke this matchup down in his Overeem vs. Volkov betting pick and came to the conclusion that Volkov’s power isn’t necessarily at the level where we should be fearful for Overeem.
I tend to agree. Volkov is an excellent fighter, but he won’t intimidate or out-muscle Overeem. If you want to run from Overeem’s age or tendency to fall asleep in the cage, I won’t stop you.
However, he seems rather dialed in of late.
|Augusto Sakai||Win (TKO)||5|
|Walt Harris||Win (TKO)||2|
|Jairzinho Rozenstruik||Loss (KO)||5|
|Alexey Oleynik||Win (TKO)||1|
|Sergei Pavlovich||Win (TKO)||1|
Prior to this string of fights, Overeem did pile on two other KO losses, but they came to bigger, badder guys like Curtis Blaydes and Francis Ngannou.
I’m not saying Overeem will for sure finish Volkov, and I’m certainly not guaranteeing Volkov can’t knock him out. But the value and upside combination is too great here, and Overeem seems to be trending toward one last title shot.
Diego Ferreira ($8.2k)
I love Sandhagen for perceived safety, and Overeem is probably the best pure value among my MMA DFS picks this week. Ferreira is just my favorite fighter to target.
You can bet on him at -125 at BetUS, or you can just take advantage of the nice price tag and slide him into your daily fantasy MMA lineups at DraftKings. Maybe both.
Ferreira stands out for a few reasons. His price is nice, he’s on a roll, and he’ll be out for blood in a rematch with Beneil Dariush.
Talk about rematches. Beneil Dariush vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira is going to be great.— Joe Gravel (@JoeGravel20) January 30, 2021
Dariush is on 5 fight win streak that includes 4 finishes..
Diego Ferreira is on a is on a 6 fight win streak that includes 3 finishes…
??? #UFC pic.twitter.com/ZYLheENlDW
Fighters don’t always get revenge when facing an opponent a second time, but Ferreira is a blistering 6-1 since that fight. His only loss? To the red hot and explosive Dustin Poirier.
Losing to the guy who just handed Conor McGregor his first ever KO loss is hardly embarrassing.
That alone tells you little, but there should be a window for Ferreira to exact some revenge.
Top MMA DFS Lineup for February 6th
- Cory Sandhagen ($9.4k)
- Alistair Overeem ($7.6k)
- Diego Ferreira ($8.2k)
- Manel Kape ($7.9k)
- Denys Bondar ($8.4k)
- Molly McCann ($8.5k)
You know why I like my first three MMA DFS picks. I’ll admit it right from the jump that Molly McCann is my last fighter in, and I’m not super committed to her, one way or the other.
She’s a solid 10-2, she’s favored to beat Lara Fritzen Procopio, and I think she gets the win. This just feels like a Decision waiting to happen, however, so there isn’t much upside to get excited about.
I am shooting for the early stoppage with most of my MMA DFS picks here, so adding opponents of my predicted winners isn’t really a strategy I want to attack this week.
I can tell you that I’m very excited to roster Kape and Bondar. Kape is a total animal. He has nine KO wins, and he’s never been taken out yet.
Just check out this dude.
Kape is making his UFC debut, and he’s finished each of his last three opponents. Pantoja is a brutal first draw, to be sure. Pantoja can win in a lot of different ways, and he’s extremely fluid and aggressive.
His style also leaves him open to some vulnerability. Somebody is getting finished here. If Kape isn’t too cocky like he’s been in the past, I think he’s the one inflicting the majority of the punishment.
Trust in Bondar
The same goes for Bondar, who will also make his UFC debut. He’s 14-1 with 13 wins coming via stoppage, and he can burn you in a multitude of ways. His one career loss came via submission, and he’s on an 8-fight winning streak.
Ode Osbourne is a balanced fighter, but Bondar is a total freak. He isn’t nicknamed “Psycho” for nothing.
His style could obviously come back to bite him, but I’ll aim for upside with the more vicious fighter.
There’s a pretty good chance this fight is on the ground, and that’s where Bondar excels. His strength and explosiveness on the canvas give him the edge here.
Hopefully, all of my MMA DFS picks and final lineup serve you well. Like usual, make changes as needed, and I encourage you to enter multiple daily fantasy lineups if you want to protect yourself a bit.
You also can just bet on MMA fights. Check out all of Adam Haynes’ betting previews at our MMA betting picks page, or use my insight, and MMA DFS picks to place some bets.
For a little more advice as to how you win consistently in MMA DFS, check out my MMA DFS guide below.