Top 5 NFL Win Totals to Bet in 2021

| June 4, 2021 7:10 am PDT

Combing through these NFL win totals in 2021, I can’t help but get excited. Between personal beliefs and discrepancies with the pricing, I couldn’t wait to lock in a number of these wagers.

The Packers line has been removed from the betting sheet until further notice, so don’t expect to read about any insight into Green Bay’s situation. The good news is there’s still plenty of value lurking on the board and more than enough time to get your bets in.

A couple of unders caught my attention, as did a few overs. In all, here are my five best NFL win totals to bet on in 2021.

Atlanta Falcons – Under 8 Wins (-130)

  • 2020 Record: 4-12
  • 2020 Point Differential: -18

I love the Arthur Smith hire and am in full agreement that Kyle Pitts will be a huge difference-maker. On the flip side, several obstacles are standing in Atlanta’s way of playing above .500 football.

A defense ranked 29th in the NFL in yards allowed didn’t move the needle with any offseason transactions; look for the Falcons D to once again be among the worst units in the league.

Dealing with Julio Jones wanting out isn’t ideal for Smith in his first year as a head coach, nor is the idea of having to transform his philosophies 180 degrees.

The Titans were one of three teams that ran the ball more than they threw it in 2020. Given the makeup of the roster he inherits in Atlanta, the former Tennessee OC will have to adjust to life without a bell-cow running back.

The Falcons will feature a pass-heavy approach without a defense to lean on – not exactly the recipe I’d write up for sustained success.

And now for the kicker.

Not only do the Falcons play nine road games, but one of their home games is actually a neutral site game against the Jets in London.

In other words, Atlanta is the only team in the league scheduled to play just seven games at home.

Los Angeles Chargers – Over 9 Wins (-130)

  • 2020 Record: 7-9
  • 2020 Point Differential: -42

Unfortunately, the days of finding “8.5” or plus-money attached to “9” are gone. However, the Chargers winning more than 9 games at -130 at BetUS is still firmly in play.

Here’s a squad that won seven games in 2020 with Anthony Lynn at the helm. Joey Bosa missed four games, Austin Ekeler was out for six. Derwin James was sidelined for the entire year. Most glaring, the Chargers offensive line abominable.

Looking ahead to 2021, Brandon Staley is at the top of the NFL Coach of the Year odds list for a good reason. Those names mentioned earlier are healthy and in the fold, and the improvements up front look sincere.

Not only did the front office snag Rashawn Slater to protect Justin Herbert’s blindside, but they beefed up in free agency in the form of Corey Linsley and Matt Feiler.

With Justin Herbert primed to elevate his game into the highest-tier of NFL quarterbacks, “over 9 wins” for the Bolts is one of the can’t-miss bets on the board. LA plays 9 games at home and finishes with a benign stretch against Houston, Denver, and Las Vegas.

San Francisco 49ers – Under 10.5 Wins (-125)

  • 2020 Record: 6-10
  • 2020 Point Differential: -14

The sooner Trey Lance is inserted under center, the better off the Niners will be. Having said that, Kyle Shanahan appears to be leaning toward rolling Jimmy G. out as the team’s QB1 when the season gets underway. At least that’s how things stand after Shanny observed Garoppolo at a June 1st practice.

“Jimmy looks like you’ve always known him. He’s been great these two weeks. His ankle seems totally healed, I haven’t asked him about it because he looks so good.”

Excuse me for not having faith in a guy who’s coming off a season in which he averaged 186.8 passing yards per game.

Before you blame last year on injuries and assume that San Francisco will win at least 11 games in the upcoming year, take a step back and assess the big picture.

49ers Regular-Season W-L Record Under the John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan Regime
Year Record
2017 6-10
2018 4-12
2019 13-3
2020 6-10

That’s a record of 29-35 with what looks to be one outlier year. Robert Saleh is no longer around to rally the troops on defense, while Kyle’s right-hand man on offense (Mike LaFleur) also bolted for a new gig.

Arizona Cardinals – Over 8.5 Wins (+100)

  • 2020 Record: 8-8
  • 2020 Point Differential: +43

The Cardinals won eight games in 2020. Chandler Jones is back after missing 11 games, J.J. Watt joins the party, plus rookies Zaven Collins and Rondale Moore are slated for big-time roles. Arizona gets an extra home game on their schedule in 2021, and there’s no juice on the over.

Am I missing something, or is this one of the best NFL win totals we can latch onto?

A legit set of weaponry paves the way for Kyler Murray to progress after the Cardinals ranked 14th in the league in points per play. Even with the belief that Kliff Kingsbury is a “fake sharp,” this roster is simply too talented to lose more games than they win.

Penciled in as one of the top six units in my 2021 NFL defense rankings, Vance Joseph’s blitz-happy group (4th-highest blitz % in 2020) is set to wreak some serious havoc.

As long as the offensive line and secondary hold up, the Cardinals should breach nine wins with a couple of weeks to spare.

Philadelphia Eagles – Over 6.5 Wins (-125)

  • 2020 Record: 4-11-1
  • 2020 Point Differential: -84

Throw everything you saw from the Eagles last season out the window. The Doug Pederson regime is out and is replaced by what promises to be a much more competent staff. I’m especially high on the arrival of Shane Steichen.

The former Chargers OC represents a major upgrade at play-calling and gives Jalen Hurts a clear direction to strive for.

Hurts will have had a full offseason under his belt, taking all the first-team reps, and he’ll have a much more dynamic supporting cast to play with. Namely thanks to DeVonta Smith’s ability to stretch the field while running the crispiest of routes.

Seeing that the Eagles win total odds are pushing -155 (on over 6.5) at some of the best NFL betting sites, I quickly got a few units down on Philly, surpassing 6.5 wins. Check out how soft their schedule is once they get past Thanksgiving.

Eagles Schedule in 2021 – Week 12 and Beyond
Week Date Opponent Opponent’s W-L Record in 2020
12 11/28 @ Giants 6-10
13 12/5 @ Jets 2-14
BYE
15 12/19 vs. Washington 7-9
16 12/26 vs. Giants 6-10
17 1/2 @ Washington 7-9
18 1/9 vs. Dallas 6-10

Lots More NFL Futures to Bet on in 2021

Scouring the NFL win totals odds is a fun process. And while you can uncover all sorts of value (as I hope I’ve done here), it’s not the only NFL futures market worthy of your attention.

Betting on teams making/missing the playoffs is a good way to double down on your NFL win total predictions. Division and conference odds are out, as are prices for exact Super Bowl matchups. You probably know about betting awards such as the 2021 NFL Coach of the Year, but did you know you could also bet on which HC gets fired first?

In fact, my buddy Noah Davis dove into that topic and offered some pretty interesting insight. Check it out below!

Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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