Sweden vs. England – Betting Odds, Analysis, and Prediction

By Jerry Summer
| July 6, 2018

There was a point in my life where I thought I wouldn’t ever see England win a penalty shootout in a major soccer tournament.

Well, the miracle finally happened in the 2018 World Cup, and the country hopes to do something special for the first time since winning the tournament on home turf in 1966.

The young squad looks confident and is eager to bring joy to the whole nation. There are some weak links in the English team, but overall, it is one of the strongest I’ve seen.

Still, there’s a long road ahead, and the next obstacle is the impressive Swedish side. On paper, the Scandinavians are nothing special, but they are flying on the pitch.

The hard work and commitment of the whole squad makes them a dangerous opponent. I like both teams, and I’m curious which one will be in the last 4.

Of course, my main priority is to find some good betting opportunities, so let’s start with that.

Sweden vs. England Betting Odds

Here’s a look at the mainstream markets for this World Cup quarterfinal.

Sweden to Win4.75
England to Win1.90
Under 2.5 Goals1.50
Over 2.5 Goals2.50
Sweden to Qualify3.00
England to Qualify1.40

The bookies obviously believe England is the favorite in this clash, as the price suggests that the team should qualify. While I see where this is coming from, I think that Sweden is underrated in this evaluation.

I assume that many English punters have placed a wager on their own country, and this has impacted the odds as well.

In my opinion, this clash is much closer than the prices suggest. Sweden has been of the best teams in this World Cup when it comes to creating chances. If the side was capable of converting them with a better frequency, it would’ve been my favorite for reaching the final from this bracket of the soccer World Cup.

I know a lot of people will be surprised by such a statement, but yes, I feel Sweden is that good.

Sweden – Life After Zlatan Is Wonderful

I’ve talked how the Swedish side is relishing the challenge to prove to the world that they can play good soccer even without Zlatan. This is the reason I won’t spend too much time on that this time around, but the motivation of this team is nothing short of remarkable.

Every single one of the players is working his socks off.

Sweden is easily one of the most disciplined sides in the whole World Cup. Credit to their coach Janne Andersson, as the team is great on both ends of the pitch. It’s curious that he obviously believes that Sweden can go deeper, as he said the squad is not yet satisfied after the win against Switzerland in the last 16.

A bold statement, but his boys are backing it up so far. The game against Switzerland is a great example of why Sweden is so good in this soccer World Cup. The side created tons of chances and was way more dangerous throughout the whole match.

They missed most of them, but they eventually got ahead. Up to this point, the Swedish defense was able to handle the opponent’s attack with ease. Even when Switzerland committed more players up front and tried to push hard for an equalizer, Sweden didn’t crack.

All of the players did their job, and Switzerland had very few chances to equalize, and none of them were clear-cut. While the defense of the Scandinavian team is not perfect, it provides enough protection of the goal.

The only serious issue for Sweden is the efficiency in front of goal.

The Scandinavians attack with purpose, penetration, and a lot of variety. You will see plenty of long balls but also a lot of simple soccer with a lot of movement and passing that opens up the opponent.

However, Sweden doesn’t convert most of the opportunities. The best examples for this are striker Marcus Berg and playmaker Emil Forsberg. Despite the latter’s lucky goal against Switzerland, the duo is struggling to find the net.

Both are very influential for Sweden and vital for the team’s attack, but they lack efficiency. The good thing is that the Scandinavian side has managed to reach the last 8 despite that, and there is room for improvement.

Still, if the team doesn’t improve its strike rate in front of goal, the World Cup dream might be over against England.

England – Young, Bold, and Hungry

A lot of English squads from the past 40 years or so have been better than the current one, at least on paper. They had more world-class players, a better goalkeeper, more solid defender, and proven attacking talent.

Most of them failed to impress in big tournaments. I would say the main reason has been the pressure from the media and the fans. On top of that, some of the stars from the past had egos that were difficult to control. Many managers failed to do so and were often afraid to pick the players in form instead of relying on reputations.

I’m impressed that Gareth Southgate had other ideas. The former youth team coach promised to always try and pick the players who are in the best shape, and he is staying true to his words so far.

The team spirit of this young English squad is the main strength.

It’s the sense of togetherness that helped England easily progress from the group and then beat a tough Colombian side by winning a penalty shootout. A quick look at the reactions from all over the globe pretty much explains how no one expected the country to hold its nerves under such circumstances.

Another important aspect that should be mentioned is the toughness displayed by England. Colombia was without its star player James Rodriguez and decided to predominantly defend and make the game a bit nasty.

That did hurt the creativity of the English team, but Southgate’s boys showed resilience, even after conceding late in the game.

Still, there are a lot of question marks about this side, and they were exposed against Colombia. For a start, the team failed to create enough chances against an opponent that defended deep. Since Sweden will do the same for large periods, the English side will have to improve.

The likes of Dele Alli and Sterling need to find more penetration, or the Swedes will be hard to beat. At the same time, the defense wasn’t exactly stellar against Colombia, either.

Sure, there were no opportunities for the South Americans for most of the game, but as soon as they pushed hard for an equalizer, England cracked. Colombia created a couple of opportunities and managed to score.

While Sweden has less quality in attack in terms of the individual players, it functions much better as a team compared to Colombia without James. The Scandinavians will certainly create some chances, and England has to improve at the back.

Sweden – England Prediction

I can easily see England having more of the ball, with Sweden defending deep for most of this game.

However, the Scandinavian side is not afraid to attack and exploit every good opportunity. The team often commits enough men if they smell blood in the water.

The rather unconvincing English defense will struggle to contain the Swedes, but the question is if they will take advantage. They have been missing so many chances so far that it’s hard to expect a sudden spike in their efficiency.

On the other end, England probably won’t create much. However, the team is better at converting, thanks to skipper Harry Kane. This is why I expect both sides to find the net. Something like 1-1 looks likely.

Recommended Bets for Sweden vs. England

You probably already know what my main bet will be. While I feel England is the slight favorite in this soccer World Cup quarterfinal, the odds are way too low.

Instead, the price of 3.00 for Sweden to qualify looks ridiculous to me. It equals around 33% of probability, and I think the Scandinavians are much closer to the 40% mark.

This is why I can’t pick anything else here but Sweden to reach the last 4. I think the country might very well have more chances than England, and if the forwards find their goalscoring touch, the Scandinavians can go through.

PICKSweden to Qualify3.00

BetVictor Million Pound Bet

The BetVictor Million Pound Bet will be blind, as the bookie hasn’t launched the PriceItUp feature yet.

  • Half time correct score 1-1
  • Full time correct score 2-2
  • Harry Kane to score 1+ goals
  • Marcus Berg to score 1+ goals
  • Sweden over 2.5 cards
  • Andreas Granqvist to get booked
  • Sweden under 1.5 corners in the first half
  • England under 1.5 cards
  • England over 9.5 corners

I have the feeling that both teams could score some goals, and Harry Kane seems like a man destined to keep finding the net.

At the same time, Marcus Berg has been a threat for the whole World Cup, so it’s time for him to open his account, too. The other picks reflect the fact that I expect England to have more of the ball.


Saturday will be an exciting day for Sweden and England. Both countries have a realistic chance not only to reach the last 4 but also the final of the soccer World Cup.

And we all know that anything could happen once you’re there.

What are your thoughts? Do you see any of these two teams as potential finalists or even winners of the competition?

Best of luck!

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