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Southampton vs. Newcastle Betting – Preview, Prediction, and Free Pick

| October 24, 2018 12:00 am PDT
EPL Southampton vs. Newcastle Betting

We all knew that Newcastle would struggle in the English Premier League this season, as the owner, Mike Ashley, once again didn’t back the manager with enough money for proper transfers.

As a result, Rafa Benitez will have to cope with a squad that looks short to compete on such level.

Southampton didn’t seem to have such a problem in the summer, but the Saints are underperforming so far in the EPL. They look like a team that desperately lacks confidence, and if they fail to find that soon, the campaign could very well end with relegation.

It’s safe to say that both teams have their backs against the wall, which makes the match between them crucial. Southampton will host the Magpies this Saturday, and this is a golden opportunity for both sides to actually get some points.

On top of adding to its tally, each team will certainly benefit from the psychological boost that a potential win will bring. Confidence and momentum can do wonders in the English Premier League. Southampton and Newcastle are in dire need of both.

I must admit that there are players that I like a lot on both teams. I don’t want to see either of them going down, so I will be rooting for them over the course of the season.

I can’t say I prefer either of them to win this week. However, I fully intend to check what the best EPL betting sites offer for this match and try to see if there’s value in some of the available betting markets.

Here’s my full preview of Southampton vs. Newcastle, along with a prediction for the score and a free betting pick.

Southampton – Newcastle Betting Odds

Let’s start with the most popular betting markets for this match.

Southampton to Win2.09
Draw3.20
Newcastle to Win3.55
Over 2.25 Goals2.05
Under 2.25 Goals1.80

Southampton has more points since the start of the season, the better squad, and the home advantage. It’s no big surprise to see the side as the slight favorite here, but the lack of confidence and efficiency have been a huge problem.

This is why the bookies see this as a potentially close game and give Newcastle a chance as well. I tend to agree with such an assessment, but I still feel that the hosts are probably a bit better than the prices for the match result suggest.

As for the goals market, it’s all pretty clear here. Newcastle will most likely rely on a solid defense, while both teams have issues finding the net.

The expectations of a rather quiet game make sense, considering that both teams have scored just six goals each so far.

I don’t initially see any value here, but let’s take a deeper look at both sides before we actually get to any Southampton vs. Newcastle betting pick that might be worth making.

Southampton

I must admit that I had higher hopes for the performance of Southampton this season.

Sure, the club struggled last year, and there weren’t that many reinforcements in the summer, but an experienced manager like Mark Hughes and some strong players should’ve been enough for a solid season.

And yet, the start of the campaign has been atrocious. With only six points from nine games, Southampton sits just above the relegation zone.

This is a team that has failed to score enough goals and has a defense that can only be described as leaky.

Despite the obvious flaws of Southampton, I would argue that the situation can and should improve. In fact, there were signs of much better days for Saints a couple of weeks ago.

They beat Brighton in the League Cup, then went on to defeat Crystal Palace away from home, and got a point against Brighton in the English Premier League.

It was a somewhat decent run, but the fixture list put a brake on it. Facing Liverpool and Chelsea, as well as the tough away games against Wolves and Bournemouth, were always going to be stern tests. Southampton did manage to win a respectable point against Bournemouth and could’ve even won the game.

Mark Hughes was happy after the game, and the improved defensive performance against an opponent that knows how to score goals is certainly something to build on. The manager will be hoping for more of the same against a side that is not very good at scoring.

However, Southampton has its own problems in front of the goal. Acquiring Danny Ings on loan certainly added some variety to the attack, but the Saints have only found the net six times so far. One of the main reasons for that is the lack of confidence.

The slow start of the season put the team under immense pressure, and you can see that on the pitch. Southampton sits sixth in the table for big chances missed, and no team in the bottom of the table can afford such wastefulness.

However, I feel that a couple of solid displays defensively and a win or two might change things for the team. The match against Newcastle is a good place to start, so Mark Hughes and his boys should be confident in their chances of getting the three points on Saturday.

Another reason to feel that way is the lack of major injuries and suspensions which will allow the manager to pick his best players.

Newcastle

 The current situation at Newcastle must be absolutely devastating for Rafa Benitez and the supporters. The Spanish manager stayed with the club in the Championship and helped it return in the English Premier League instantly.

In the first season after getting back up, the Magpies even finished in tenth place, which was a huge success. Newcastle certainly punched above its weight in the 2017-2018 season.

To keep improving the side, Benitez needed some support from owner Mike Ashley, and he failed the Spaniard. He also failed to actually sell the club, and the situation is a complete mess right now.

No one knows what Ashley intends to do, and the fans simply don’t trust the man to make the right decisions. Honestly speaking, they shouldn’t, after all the suffering from the past decade or so.

The only hopes for Newcastle are the experience of Benitez and the passionate support of the fans.

From a pure soccer perspective, this squad should probably get relegated. The lack of quality and depth is obvious, despite the fact that there are some good players on the team.

I have to say that the points tally of the Magpies is a bit misleading right now, as they already faced every single team from the Big 6 in the first nine games of the season.

This means that the fixture list will be much kinder until December, and Newcastle will have an easier run of games. The team will have the chance to gather some points and restore some confidence.

The biggest problem here is the lack of goals. Newcastle’s defense has been somewhat decent so far in the campaign, so you could rely on the back line to not concede that many goals.

But Rafa will have to find a way to boost the creativity. Newcastle is barely mustering any chances, which is a major issue.

Newcastle’s best game so far was against Manchester United, but one could argue that the insecurity around Old Trafford was the main reason for that. On top of that, the Magpies lost after leading 2-0 early on.

This was a huge blow, and I don’t think that the team has managed to move on. I fear for Newcastle, and I think that the side has to start winning at home first.

Once that happens, the team might be able to find some consistency and stay in the English Premier League.

Prediction and Betting Pick

I don’t think that Rafa Benitez can do anything else but send a defensive formation that will be looking to hit Southampton on the counter.

That was Leicester’s plan earlier this season, and it worked. However, the Foxes were lucky not to concede goals and showed the ability to punish every mistake.

I’m not quite sure that Newcastle can do the same. I also believe that Mark Hughes will be careful and will try to patiently unlock the defense of the opponent.

The Saints have the players to find the net, and the home support should help, too.

I think that Southampton will be able to keep a clean sheet against the toothless Newcastle team and should be able to win the match.

This is why the price of 2.09 offered by BetOnline is good enough for me to back the home team.

I would say that a result like 1-0 or 2-0 seems the most likely in this English Premier League clash.

PICKSouthampton to Win2.09

Final Words

I’m curious what will happen here, as both sides could change the course of the season with a win.

Despite the fact that the season has just started, this is an important match for Southampton and Newcastle. This could lead to a lot of dull periods, full of errors by both sides.

What do you think about this match? Is the home side really stronger, or can Rafa Benitez outsmart Mark Hughes? Let me know in the comments below.

Good luck!

Jerry Summer

Jerry Summer has a wide-ranging interest in gambling and the gambling industry. He's made a living out of both playing poker and betting on sports.

The English Premier League and the NBA are among Jerry's primary areas of expertise. He's knowledgeable about many other sports, too, along with poker and several casino games.

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