Soccer Betting Preview: English Premier League Games March 4th – 6th

It’s that time of the week again! There’s another round of Premier League games approaching, and I’m here to talk you through all the upcoming action. Some of this weekend’s fixtures could be pivotal in the race for the top four and the battle to avoid relegation, so we could be in for some real excitement.

Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal and Southampton were all missing from the EPL schedule last weekend. Manchester City and Arsenal didn’t play at all, while Manchester United and Southampton were playing at Wembley for the EFL Cup. It was United who lifted the trophy, beating Southampton 3-2 courtesy of a late goal by Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

This weekend we have a full round of fixtures, meaning there’s ten games to get through. So I’ll waste no more of your time, and get straight into it!

• Manchester United to win: 1.25
• Bournemouth to win: 12.00
• Draw: 6.00

I’m a bit baffled by Manchester United this season. On paper, they’ve been doing really well these last few months. They’re unbeaten in the league since October, and they’ve progressed in the FA Cup and the Europa League. As I mentioned in the introduction, they’ve also just won the first major trophy of the domestic season.

When I watch them, however, they just don’t seem very impressive. They create a lot of chances for sure, but they’re not at all clinical. They’re heavily reliant on the 35-year-old Ibrahimovic to get the goals, and they’re rarely putting teams away with ease. Although they’ve had SOME comfortable victories, even against the “weaker” teams they’ve mostly won by small margins. They’ve also drawn a few games that they really should be winning.

Maybe I’m missing something when I watch them. Or maybe I just hold them to high standards, given the money they’ve spent on players and the fact that they have Mourinho in charge. Whatever the reason, I honestly can’t work out whether they’re a really good team right now or not.

I guess we’ll learn more as the season goes on. They’ve got some big games coming up, so it’ll be interesting to see how they perform in them. For now, they’ve got Bournemouth at home to deal with.

This should be a straightforward victory.

Despite my misgivings about their true quality, I’m confident United will beat Bournemouth without too much trouble. Bournemouth are starting to look like a team in real trouble. Five defeats out of the last six is relegation form, and they’ve been slipping down the table. They’re still up in 14^th at the moment, but they won’t be staying there unless they turn their form around.

Their biggest problem is that they don’t seem to know when to keep it tight. They’re always attempting expansive play and looking for goals. That’s admirable in some respects, but they don’t really have the quality to do it against the better teams. They just end up too exposed.

I expect Manchester United to take full advantage this weekend. They’ll probably concede a goal, because Bournemouth can still be dangerous, but they’ll score at least two or three of their own I think. The odds on United winning just about represent value at 1.25, but I’m going for something more adventurous here. United to win and both teams to score looks like a nice wager at 3.10, and that’s where my money is going.

• Leicester City to win: 1.80
• Hull City to win: 4.75
• Draw: 50

I tipped Leicester to beat Liverpool last weekend, and they did exactly that. Although I’m delighted to have put out a 5.75 winner for my readers, I’m actually pretty annoyed that Leicester won. More accurately, I’m annoyed at the way they played. I’m in complete agreement with Jamie Carragher, who says that Leicester’s players should ashamed of themselves.

In case you’re not aware of the full story, let me explain. This Leicester team have been awful for weeks now. The players have looked disinterested at times, as though they weren’t even trying. There were rumors circulating that they had basically stopped playing for manager Claudio Ranieri, and wanted to force him out.

This is the same manager that helped these players to win the league title last season. A feat that none of them would have thought possible. So I found it hard to believe that the rumors of a player revolt were true. I certainly didn’t WANT to believe them. I preferred to think that they were simply suffering a natural drop-off after the highs of last year.

Last week’s game was evidence enough to convince that me the rumors WERE true though. Ranieri was sacked just three days before the game, and the difference in the players against Liverpool was amazing. They showed the determination and commitment that had been missing for so long, and it must have been heartbreaking for Ranieri to watch. If they players had been playing like that all season, there’s no way he’d have lost of his job.

I’m left feeling disgusted with the owners of Leicester City for sacking Ranieri, and disgusted with the players for their part in what’s happened. Unfortunately, this is just a reflection of modern soccer. Loyalty is not as common as it used to be.

Anyway, let’s move onto this weekend’s game against Hull. What can we expect here? Well, I certainly don’t think Leicester will have it easy. Hull will play much more defensively than Liverpool did, and won’t offer so much space for Leicester to take advantage of.

I think this will result in a close game, but one which Leicester will ultimately manage to win. They’re 1.80 for the victory, which is worth taking in my opinion.

• Stoke City to win: 1.95
• Middlesbrough to win: 4.33
• Draw: 3.25

Stoke City got trounced 4-0 by Spurs last weekend, and looked genuinely dreadful. Middlesbrough’s 1-0 defeat by Crystal Palace looks slightly more respectable in comparison, but it’s still a loss. So neither team has much reason to be confident going into this game.

However, Stoke are definitely capable of playing a lot better than they did against Spurs. Middlesbrough, on the other hand, may not have it what takes to turn their recent form around. They’ve lost three of their last six, drawn the other three, and I can’t see them finding a win any time soon. I think they’re very likely to be one of the teams to get relegated this season.

All things considered, Stoke to win at 1.95 seems like a generous price. I think the bookmakers have read too much into the defeat at Tottenham, and not factored in just how bad Middlesbrough are away from home. I think this game is just what the Stoke team need to get over last week’s awful result, and I expect them to record a fairly comfortable victory.

• Swansea City to win: 1.90
• Burnley to win: 4.00
• Draw: 3.50

Swansea gave a good account of themselves against Chelsea last weekend. They may have lost 3-1 at Stamford Bridge, but that result doesn’t tell the whole story. Although Chelsea probably deserved the victory overall, they never looked in complete control of the game. Swansea fought them all the way, and made it tough for their opponents.

This weekend they’re going from one extreme to the other. Away at Chelsea is arguably the hardest fixture in the schedule this season, while home to Burnley is one of the easiest. No disrespect to Burnley intended, but they’re not just not very good on the road. Although they’ve done very well at home, they’ve picked up just two points on their travels.

I really can’t see beyond a Swansea victory here. They’re still in relegation trouble, despite some good results in recent weeks, and they’ll know how important it is to get the points in a game like this. They’ll overcome Burnley without too much difficulty I think, and I like the odds of 1.90.

• Watford to win: 3.75
• Southampton to to win: 2.10
• Draw: 3.25

How will Southampton react to their defeat in last weekend’s cup final? That’s the big question here, and I’m not sure what the answer is.

The Southampton players have every right to be aggrieved by the result. I think they were the better team on the day, and they had a couple of refereeing decisions go against them. Manchester United ultimately got the winning goal, so you have to give them credit, but they couldn’t really have complained if they’d lost.

I personally hope that Southampton will be fired up and ready to take their frustration out on Watford. Not because I have anything against Watford of course, that’s just how I like to see teams to react. There’s a chance that they might be feeling sorry for themselves though, and that could lead to a poor performance.

Either way, I think there’s going to be goals in this game. Watford have been terribly inconsistent this season, but they’re a capable team on their day and especially when they’re at home. I can definitely see them scoring, and I think that Southampton will too. Probably through their new striker, Gabbiadini. He looks like a real player to me, and one I’m excited to see more of.

Prediction time then. I’m going with a 2-2 draw, and will be betting on both teams to score.

• West Brom to win: 2.15
• Crystal Palace to win: 3.80
• Draw: 3.10

West Brom have three wins in their last five games, with the other two being draws. That’s exceptional form for this team, and it’s fully deserved too.

Manager Tony Pulis is traditionally associated with a boring and defensive style of play, but he’s producing something more than that at West Brom right now. Although his team will still keep it tight when they have to, they have plenty to offer going forward too.

Can they keep this form going?

I think so, yes.

Crystal Palace recorded their first win in a while at the weekend. That was at home though, and against a disappointing Middlesbrough. I mentioned last week that I expect Palace to start improving and getting results, and I stand by that. I don’t think they’ll be getting anything here at the Hawthorns though. This is a West Brom win for me.

I’m actually a little surprised that the odds on West Brom winning are so high. To be honest, I’d be backing them to win if the odds were something like 1.80 or 1.85. I think 2.15 offers very good value, so this is the best bet of the weekend in my opinion.

• Liverpool to win: 2.05
• Arsenal to win: 3.50
• Draw: 3.60

This is the biggest game of the weekend. Arsenal and Liverpool have both received a lot of criticism in recent weeks, and Liverpool in particular need to show a response. Having looked like the real title contenders just a few weeks ago, they’re now down in fifth place and in real danger of missing out on the top four.

Arsenal are just one point and one place ahead in fourth, although they do have a game in hand. Two defeats in their last three games have made the fans uneasy though, and there have been calls for manager to Arsene Wenger to go at the end of the season.

So there’s plenty of pressure on both sides here, and it’s difficult to know what’s going to happen. The obvious prediction is a Liverpool win, for the simple reason that they’ve been usually excellent in the big games this season. Even in the last couple of months, when they’ve been mostly awful, they still managed a 2-0 win over top four rivals Spurs.

Arsenal are the complete opposite. They’ve had disappointing results in most of their big games this season, and have only recorded one single victory against another top six team.

Soccer is rarely straightforward though. We must always expect the unexpected. A Liverpool win might appear to be the obvious result, but anything could happen here. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if Arsenal finally put in a big game performance and got the win.

All in all, I’m not especially confident in my prediction for the score line here. If I’m being honest, this is basically just a guess. I AM confident that we’ll see goals though. Going with over 3.5 is a little bit risky, but I think the odds of 2.70 represent real value.

• Tottenham Hotspur to win: 1.65
• Everton to win: 5.50
• Draw: 3.80

Tottenham have been unbeatable at White Hart Lane this season, and have just beaten Stoke City 4-0. Striker Harry Kane is on fire, and has scored three hat-tricks in his last nine games. That’s extremely impressive, even by his high standards.

Everton, meanwhile, are in the best form they’ve been in for a long time. Koeman is only in his first season as manager at the club, but he’s definitely made an impression. He’s got his team playing very well, and they seem to be getting better every week at the moment.

All in all this is a tough game to call.

I’m almost tempted not to make a prediction at all here. That’s how difficult I’m finding it. I could make a case for Tottenham winning, a case for Everton winning or a case for the draw. All three are perfectly feasible results.

After a LOT of thought, I’ve decided to go with the Tottenham win. Their exceptional home record is what’s swayed me. I think Everton will give them a really good game, and I’m looking forward to watching this one, but I think Tottenham are just going to sneak the victory. No recommended bet here though.

• Sunderland to win : 10.00
• Manchester City to win: 1.28
• Draw: 5.75

The fact that Sunderland are at home and 10.00 to get the win tells you everything you need to know about this game. Sunderland basically have very little chance of getting anything out of this game, and a Manchester City victory seems almost certain.

I’ve already reminded you that soccer is unpredictable, so we can’t take anything for granted here. Honestly, though, I’d be absolutely astounded if this is not a comfortable win for Manchester City. They’ve found their form again recently, and are scoring goals for fun. They still look shaky at the back, but Sunderland aren’t going to cause them too many problems. Although Defoe might pop up with a goal, City will score plenty here I think.

I’m so confident of a big City win that I’m backing them at -2 on the handicap. 2.75 is an attractive price for this wager, so I’m taking full advantage.

• West Ham to win: 6.00
• Chelsea to win: 1.57
• Draw: 4.00

The final game of the weekend is another big fixture. It’s a London derby, and a game where Chelsea dropping points is a distinct possibility. A West Ham victory would give a little bit of hope to the teams still chasing Chelsea for the title, but are they up to it?

I think they COULD beat Chelsea for sure. Chelsea have looked far from invincible lately, even in some of the games they’ve won, and West Ham are always fired up for the London derbies. Although they’re inconsistent this season, they’ve been playing reasonably well in most of their recent game. If they play to their best here, they could definitely get a result.

London derbies are always hard to predict, and this one is no different. I’m confident we’re going to see an excellent game, but I’m not too confident in my prediction. Although I’m really tempted to go for a West Ham win, I think a draw is the likely outcome here. I think it’s best to avoid the betting though.