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Sleepers and Value Bets for UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo – Big Odds on Eye and Vettori

| June 12, 2020 2:25 am PDT

If you’re looking for the best UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo value bets and sleepers ahead of the action this Saturday, June 13, don’t act too surprised to find yourself here. 

The good news is that we have a common goal. I have been spending some time this morning on coming up with some of the top bets you can place on the UFC this weekend. And by top bets, I mean the ones the general betting public is snoozing on. 

The leading UFC sportsbooks have all kinds of markets available for UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo, which has made it easier for me to find odds really worth taking a shot on. And look, I know this card isn’t the most popular with fans, but sometimes that can be a good thing for betting fans. 

I have four bets for you to take a look at today. By far, the largest odds of all four bets can be found in the main event, so I’ll cover that one first and make my way through the rest of them. 

All odds have been taken from the Betway sportsbook. So if you like the look of any of these bets, you’ll know where to find them.

Eye to Win in Round 5 +2200

Jessica Eye faces off with Cynthia Calvillo in the main event of the evening. And while you might not be jumping for joy at the prospect of this five-round fight, the odds above just might pique your interest. 

Eye and Calvillo are pretty much neck and neck with the oddsmakers, despite Eye ranking as the number one contender in the women’s flyweight division. Calvillo isn’t even ranked at 125 pounds — in fact, she hasn’t fought at this weight since her pro debut in August 2016.

Although fans will remember Valentina Shevchenko’s brutal KO of Eye a couple of fights back, it seems that she is being underestimated with the oddsmakers on account of this loss. Which is silly, really — Shevchenko is one of the greatest female mixed martial artists of all time.

Calvillo, as strong as her BJJ game is, cannot be compared with the 125-pound champion. And in my opinion, she is going to have one of the toughest nights of her career this Saturday at the UFC Apex.

Eye is not only a superior striker, but she is also a decent wrestler. If Calvillo is to have any success on the floor, she will have to work extremely hard to take her down. She will eat plenty of shots on the way in.

While I previously opted for Eye to beat Calvillo on the scorecards, there’s no denying that a bet on her to finish the Brazilian in the fifth round looks enticing. Eye can wear Calvillo down in the later stretches of the fight and force a mistake.

But can she finish it before the final bell? At odds of +2200, it’s surely worth some spare change.

Vettori to win by Submission +500

Marvin Vettori is favored to beat Karl Roberson in the co-main event this Saturday.

I think Vettori’s raw strength and grappling chops will make the difference in this fight, and I would be surprised if it goes otherwise. You never know in a fight, of course, but we’ve seen the Italian in there with better strikers — such as Izzy Adesanya, the incumbent UFC middleweight champ — and not be overwhelmed. 

Roberson doesn’t have the type of power that will prevent Vettori from looking for his first finish since his UFC debut back in August 2016. In that fight, the 26-year-old submitted Alberto Uda in the first round to make his presence known.

Since then, Vettori has dropped decisions to Adesanya and Antonio Carlos Junior, while collecting wins over Andrew Sanchez, Cezar Ferreira, and Vitor Miranda. He has hung with solid BJJ guys and has never been submitted. He has never been stopped in a fight, period. 

While Roberson’s BJJ has vastly improved over the past few years, he would be crazy to hunt for a submission against Vettori.

Yes, Roberson has submission wins over Darren Stewart and Roman Kopylov, but he has also been subbed by Glover Teixeira and Cezar Ferreira. And while those two are high-level BJJ practitioners, they both got to him in the first round.

Vettori to win by submission is +500. If he pulls this one out of the bag, you can be certain that there will be UFC betting fans wishing they would have gotten on these odds. 

Mark De La Rosa by Submission +450

Speaking of BJJ guys, Mark De La Rosa vs. Jordan Espinoza is arguably the grappling contest of the evening.

This naturally makes me wonder why the odds on De La Rosa winning by submission are so high. I mean, Espinosa has lost his last two UFC fights by submission. Both Matt Schnell and Alex Perez did away with him inside the first round.

Sure, De La Rosa’s three-fight losing streak might have a lot to do with the odds being so juicy. But when you consider that the loser of this contest might be cut, it’s hard to completely disregard the chances of both guys fighting as if their lives depend on it.

You can look at things the other way, sure. Maybe these two will be too anxious to engage with one another, but that would probably see both of them edge closer to the chopping block. So think of it this way — if these two are grapplers, how long will it take for the fight to make it to the ground?

This is a question you really have to think about before you bet on the fight. Especially when you consider that both men are better suited to the ground. Espinosa has just two KOs in his career, while De La Rosa has one. I’d be surprised if either guy finishes the other on the feet.

But a submission? Very likely. De La Rosa has six submissions on his record. Espinosa has seven, sure, but he has also been submitted four times to his opponent’s one (to Tim Elliott). De La Rosa has definitely fought tougher opponents. 

Odds of +450 are not to be sniffed at and are almost certainly worth a place on your sleepers and value bets shortlist for this event.

Aguilera to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission +300

Anthony Ivy faces off against Christian Aguilera (insert your own jokes here) on the opening bout of the evening.

These two make their UFC debuts, having previously been liked with other opponents. Ivy is perhaps the better known of the two, having amassed a record of 8-2. He is the Fury FC welterweight champ and is ranked as the best welterweight in Texas.

Aguilera is ranked as the top welterweight in California, which makes this one a pretty fun fight. However, both guys are relatively unknown to your average UFC fan. And there will be, understandably enough, UFC betting fans that won’t touch this one.

That said, Aguilera’s odds of +300 might be worth a dollar or two. Especially when you consider the fact that he has scored nine first-round KOs in 13 wins. That certainly justifies the nickname “The Beast.”

Ivy is taller by five inches and has only ever lost two fights. Both by submission. On paper, he is a little less experienced than Aguilera, so it will be interesting to see how he handles his first fight under the bright lights of the UFC. 

One punch can change a fight, and Aguilera has plenty of experience doing just that. You can get odds of +300 on him to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission, which is not bad at all. 

While I wouldn’t put my house on Aguilera knocking out Ivy, it might be fun to put a few dollars on his debut being one to remember. 

And That’s It

While this weekend’s card might be seen as a little disappointing on paper, one thing I’ve learned in my years following the UFC is that judgments are best left until the night is done.

Eye vs. Calvillo and Roberson vs. Vettori might not be the main and co-main that dreams are made of. And the rest of the fights might even go under the radar of diehard fans. But they could very well end up being great fights that make you some money — and wouldn’t that be nice?

If the bets above haven’t really caught your imagination, check out my UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo best bets. Alternatively, you can wait it out until next week’s UFC Fight Night event, which I will be covering in the UFC section of our blog

Enjoy the fights!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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