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Sleepers and Value Bets for the 2020 NASCAR Food City 500 – Five Drivers Worth Considering

| May 30, 2020 12:35 am PDT
NASCAR Food City 500 Value Bets

My 2020 NASCAR Food City 500 sleepers and value bets are in, and I’ve got some very tasty odds for you to look at.

The race goes down this Sunday, May 31, and will be also be known as the Supermarket Heroes 500 to honor those grocery workers keeping us fed and watered during the lockdown. 

Now, the big race at “The Last Great Colosseum” is the fifth in total this month. So far, we have had four different winners, which begs the question — are we going to see a fifth driver winning their first NASCAR Cup Series race in May?

Well, the latest Food City 500/Supermarket Heroes 500 odds on the leading NASCAR betting sites suggest that there are a few candidates who could take the checkered flag at Bristol this weekend.

But today, I’m going to be concentrating on those that offer good betting value, as well a couple of nice sleepers to look at before you bet on NASCAR’s next big race. 

Kurt Busch +1200

If you have been following my NASCAR betting previews this month, you will have noticed that I have had good things to say about Busch.  

While the Chip Ganassi veteran has thus far failed to win a race in the 2020 Cup Series season, he has looked very impressive on occasions. Busch finished fifth in the 2020 Alsco Uniforms 500 on Wednesday. He also has two third-place finishes this season in the Auto Shield 400 and The Real Heroes 400.

Overall, Busch sits as the fourth most successful active driver at Bristol since February 2018, with an average rating of 94.0. He has one win, two top-fives, and three top-tens in that timeframe. 

Busch has won at least one NASCAR Cup Series race over the course of the past six seasons. Could he go one better this Sunday and win? Well, he certainly has the desirable combination of a solid record at Bristol and good season form. 

Busch’s odds to win the 2020 Food City 500 are +1200, which makes him one you cannot ignore. 

Jimmie Johnson +2200

Jimmie Johnson is still chasing his first win since Dover in June 2017 but has really put his foot on the gas this season.

In terms of effort, you cannot fault the seven-time Cup Series champ. He has one top-five and two top tens in 2020 and was agonizingly disqualified, post-race, from a second-place finish at Charlotte in the Coca-Cola 600 last Sunday.

Johnson finished 10th, 3rd, and 1st in the last three Food City 500 races and has an average finish of 13.28 from 36 career starts. At odds of +2200, Johnson deserves a place on your shortlist of sleepers at Bristol.

Matt Kenseth +3300

Kenseth’s last Cup Series win was all the way back in November 2017.

Sure, he’s not going to rank up there with the favorites for Bristol this Sunday, but I think he has a shot at doing something worthy of note. Whether he will win the race or not is up to fate, but I think he could surprise.

In case you were not aware of this, Kenseth has not taken part in a Cup Series race on this track since August 2017. He finished 4th that day. In the race prior to that in April 2017, he also finished 4th.

Kenseth has 4 career wins at Bristol, as well as 15 top-five finishes. When it put it like that, I think his odds might be something to keep in mind.

Ryan Newman +8000

A Food City 500 longshot here, admittedly, but there is value in the odds. 

Newman has one top-ten finish from five starts this season, which isn’t magnificent by any stretch of the imagination. His ninth place at Daytona was encouraging, but he just has not been able to carry on the momentum from the season opener.

In his last five races, Newman has finished 12th or better. He landed a sixth-place finish here in August 2017, which was his best result in Bristol since August 2004. 

I wouldn’t be confident at all in picking Newman to win the Food City 500, but he could very well be a dark horse to finish in the top five. At the very least, his odds to finish in the top ten might be worth looking at.

Daniel Suarez +25000

And finally, my big longshot for the Food City 500 is Daniel Suarez.

Once again, I wouldn’t advise backing Suarez to win the race, but his odds are that good that some pocket change could be worth a shot. What I am leaning towards, however, is a finish in the top ten for Mexico’s own NASCAR star.

Suarez’s best finish this season is 21st, which is a little… meh. But what encourages me to include him on my list of sleepers is his recent record at Bristol — he finished 8th in both races in 2019.

Suarez has previously finished 18th, 11th, 15th, and 18th here. In short, I expect him to finish somewhere in the top 15, but with a bit of luck, he can push his way into the top ten. 

His odds are too good to ignore, and for that reason, he takes up the last place on my list of Food City 500 picks. Or should I say, my Supermarket Heroes 500 value picks and sleepers?

Wrapping It Up

Despite this race being changed from the Food City 500 to the Supermarket Heroes 500, some fans cannot help but refer to Bristol’s showpiece event by the former.

But regardless of what name you will refer to this race as, it’s not going to change the fact that it should be one of the most competitive arm-wrestles on the NASCAR Cup Series calendar this year. 

We’ve had some interesting races in 2020, and this should be up there with the best of them. With no rain forecasted for Bristol on Sunday, let’s hope all goes according to plan. 

As for my Food City 500 sleepers and picks, I hope I’ve given a good account of why all five drivers deserve a shout. But if you’re looking for my solid pick, you can get that in my full 2020 NASCAR Food City 500 race preview.

Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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