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Sleepers and Value Bets for the 2020 NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 – Hamlin, Johnson, and More

| June 12, 2020 8:31 am PDT
2020 NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Sleepers

The Homestead-Miami Speedway is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series roadshow this Sunday, June 14, with the 2020 Dixie Vodka 400. This race should rival any we have had so far this season, and I’m expecting it to be a tight one.

While the usual suspects in Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch will be favored to take the checkered flag, how is the rest of the pack shaping up ahead of Homestead?

Or to be more precise – is there scope to make money from some of the betting public’s less fancied drivers? Well, there are some odds on our recommended NASCAR betting sites that could be tempting enough for most bettors to take a punt. 

If you’re still reading, you must be still keen to hear about my NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 sleepers and value bets. So let’s get down to it!

Denny Hamlin +900

A winner here in 2009 and 2013, Hamlin’s overall record at Homestead is the third-best of any active driver with more than five starts here.

Hamlin has an average finishing position of 10.53, with four top-fives and ten top-ten finishes to his name. That means only Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. have better records than the native Floridian. 

This season, Hamlin has been up and down. He started in style by winning his third Daytona 500, before taking the checkered flag at the Toyota 500 in Darlington. A 5th-place finish at Atlanta was encouraging, but 24 at Martinsville last week all but summed things up for his erratic driving this year.

As the odds suggest, Hamlin is being overlooked by many. 

Jimmie Johnson +2200

Jimmie Johnson’s first and only win at Martinsville was all the back in 2016.

The NASCAR legend is priced at +2200 to break his Cup Series losing streak, and he is definitely worth considering. Perhaps not to win the race, but to finish in the top ten.

Johnson’s third-place finish at Bristol in May is his best result in 2020. He did finish 2nd at Charlotte before receiving a post-race DQ, however, and is capable of surprising. I’m not sure I would feel happy about betting on him to trump the likes of Harvick and Truex, but if you’re looking for a long shot, be my guest.

Clint Bowyer +2500

With an average finishing position of 13.57 from 14 races, Clint Bowyer is another driver to consider for a top ten finish or better.

His odds are definitely worth looking at, even if he has never won a race here. Bowyer does have three top fives, eight top tens, and eleven top twenty finishes, however. A pretty respectable return by anyone’s measure.

This season, Bowyer’s best finish was 2nd at Bristol on May 31. He also finished 5th in Phoenix, so a top ten finish at odds of +2500 wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world. 

Erik Jones +5000

Erik Jones has just three starts under his belt at Homestead. From those three starts, he has one top-five and one top-ten finish. An average finishing position of 17.00 might not look the best, but Jones could very well improve on his 3rd-place finish in 2019 this weekend.

This season, Jones finished 5th at both Bristol and Darlington (Toyota 500), picking up 8th at the Real Heroes 400 as well as 10th at Fontana. The youngster is making a good account of himself so far and could make someone very happy indeed if he went on to win the race.

Jones is definitely a longshot for the win but is more than capable of scoring a place in the top ten. It’s not every day you get odds of +5000 on a driver that can realistically achieve that.

Bubba Wallace +10000

Wallace has made headlines recently for his activism both inside and outside of the sport, and all eyes will be on him at this Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400. But I’m keen to see how he can use that pressure to his advantage.

In his last three races, Jones has finished 10th, 21st, and 11th. Pretty good for a guy who has consistently been forgotten about by oddsmakers and bettors alike. A sixth-place finish at Las Vegas in the second race of the season was his best return of his Cup Series career, but can he do even better at Homestead?

Well, I’ll be honest with you here — he has just two starts on this track and never made much of a splash at all. But there is not a hell of a lot you can learn from such a limited record.

Given Wallace’s odds to win the race are +10000, you could get a very attractive price on him cracking the top ten. 

That’s All for This Week

You have my sleepers and value bets for the Dixie Vodka 400 this weekend, so feel free to do with them what you wish. 

I’ll be watching Sunday’s race with an eye on all five drivers above — four of which come with some pretty big odds. These odds are always nice to look at, but if they come in, well, that’s a whole other story.

Check out my 2020 Dixie Vodka 400 betting preview for my thoughts on the favorites for the race. I also give my pick for who should win at Homestead in that one, if you’re interested. 

Anyway, that’s it for this week. Good luck with your bets!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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