Serie A Predictions and Betting Picks – July 11, 2020

By Ben Morris in Soccer
| July 10, 2020 5:13 am PDT

Following shock defeats for Serie A’s top two on Tuesday, Juventus and Lazio will both be eager to get back on track this weekend. However, both sides face potentially tricky tests against two of the division’s in-form teams.

Here is Saturday’s Serie A fixture list in full.

  • Lazio vs. Sassuolo
  • Brescia vs. Roma
  • Juventus vs. Atalanta

If Sassuolo prevents Lazio from winning in the early kickoff, Atalanta will have the chance to move into second place with a victory over Juventus. Saturday’s other game sees relegation-threatened Brescia host Roma. I’m sure you’ll agree that we have three exciting matchups to look forward to!

I share my betting picks for Saturday’s Serie A ties at the end of this post. But first, let’s check out my predictions for all three games taking place in Italy’s top flight on July 11.

Lazio and Sassuolo to Draw

Lazio had lost just two of their 26 league games when the campaign was put on hold. The capital club looked destined to push Juventus all the way in the title race, but three defeats in their five outings since the resumption have seen their Scudetto dreams fade away.

The Eagles returned to action with a loss to Atalanta before securing narrow victories over Fiorentina and Torino, but back-to-back defeats to Milan and Lecce have dented the club’s title hopes. And to make matters worse, defender Patric has been banned for four games. The Spaniard channeled his inner Luis Suarez on Tuesday, biting Lecce’s Giulio Donati!

On the flip side, things couldn’t be going much better for Sassuolo right now. The Neroverdi is unbeaten in their last five games and comes into Saturday’s clash on the back of three straight wins. Fiorentina, Lecce, and Bologna were all brushed aside by Roberto De Zerbi’s men in the space of a week.

Sassuolo’s outstanding run has seen the club break into the top half of the table, although Lazio remains 25 points ahead. There is no denying that Lazio should win this game, but the contrasting form of both sides suggests that Sassuolo is likely to get something at Stadio Olimpico.

Roma to Beat Brescia

Roma manager Paulo Fonseca would have been looking for a response from his team following three successive defeats. The Giallorossi was in danger of dropping out of the European places, but a dominant performance against Parma last time out proved that Fonseca’s men aren’t prepared to let Napoli and Milan overtake them.

Despite racking up 25 shots on Wednesday, Roma only managed to score twice. However, the team’s display was extremely positive. Goals either side of half time from Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Jordan Veretout canceled out Juraj Kucka’s early penalty to secure a much-need win. A trip to Brescia provides Roma with an excellent opportunity to seal back-to-back victories.

It looked like Brescia was on their way to earning a rare win in their previous game. Ernesto Torregrossa’s first-half strike meant the relegation struggler went into half time with the lead over Torino. But a second-half capitulation eventually saw the Rondinelle lose 3-1.

Brescia has now won just one of their last 16 league outings, so it’s hardly surprising that the Lombardy outfit is seven points from safety. Roma should cruise to a comfortable victory on Saturday.

Juventus and Atalanta to Draw

Believe it or not, Juventus’ seven-game winning streak was ended by AC Milan earlier in the week. With Lazio slipping up against Lecce in Tuesday’s early kickoff, the Bianconeri had the chance to move ten points clear at the top. But a 4-2 defeat has halted any plans of a title party for now.

Still, Juventus leads Lazio by seven points, and with seven games remaining this term, that should be a big enough advantage to bring a ninth consecutive Serie A title to Turin. But Maurizio Sarri’s men may have to wait a little longer to get their hands on the trophy, with in-form Atalanta up next.

La Dea heads into this mouth-watering matchup in unstoppable form. A 13-game unbeaten run in all competitions — which has seen Atalanta win their last nine league games — is already a remarkable achievement. But the team will surely be desperate to extend their hot streak against the defending champion.

Colombian forward Luis Muriel has netted four goals in his previous four appearances, while Atalanta’s performances at the other end of the pitch have been immense. Indeed, three straight clean sheets have put the club in a fantastic position to snatch second place.

It’s difficult to predict which way this game will go. With two seriously strong sides going head-to-head, we could see a draw.

Serie A Picks for Saturday, July 11

Here are my top betting picks for Saturday’s Serie A matchups.

Lazio vs. Sassuolo – Double Chance Sassuolo and Draw (2.40)

The bookies’ price for the home win (1.50) is probably fair here, but I’m not sure why the odds for the away win (5.50) are so high. Of course, Lazio has been far better than Sassuolo for the majority of the season. But judging by recent results, Sassuolo is definitely capable of avoiding defeat against Lazio.

Simone Inzaghi’s men have been a shadow of their former selves lately, while the Neroverdi is on an impressive run. It could be difficult for Sassuolo to beat Lazio, but I’m confident that the away side can seal a draw on Saturday. I recommend using the double chance market, as the bet will come in if Sassuolo wins or the game is drawn.

Juventus vs. Atalanta – Over 3.5 Goals (2.55)

As I’ve already mentioned, it’s extremely tricky to forecast the outcome of this matchup. Juventus is the favorite, but odds of 2.00 for the home win show that the bookies are wary of Atalanta’s threat. You can get odds of 3.50 for the away win, but I believe the goal markets offer the best value here.

Juventus beat Atalanta 3-1 in the reverse fixture back in November, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the two teams produce a similar scoreline this time around. Each of Juve’s previous four games has produced over 3.5 goals, and let’s not forget that Atalanta is the division’s highest scorer by some distance.

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