Top Reasons Why Tom Brady Won’t Win the 2022 NFL MVP

By Dan Vasta in NFL
| December 3, 2021 10:39 am PST

Tom Brady is looking for his fourth NFL MVP award this season. He has put together some exceptional seasons in which he came up short of winning the MVP.

Several factors go into winning the prestigious award. Several players will be in the running for the award this year. The Tampa Bay quarterback has several players that can knock him off.

Here are your top reasons why Tom Brady won’t win the 2022 NFL MVP.

He Is Not Deserving

There are plenty of weeks left on the docket for the 2021-22 season, but the playoff picture is wide open. That often means several teams are gunning for Tom Brady’s Bucs.

Brady turned it on during the stretch run of last season. He was able to make another Super Bowl victory. Aaron Rodgers ended up losing to TB12 in the NFC Championship, but the cheese head passer ended up taking home the NFL MVP award to his trophy case.

The numbers are often not there for the top players in the NFL. The team game allows others to feast on the competition.

The perfect example is to look at the performance of Leonard Fournette in Week 12 against the Colts.

  • Rushing Yards: 100
  • Total Yards: 131
  • Touches: 17 carries, 7 receptions
  • Total Touchdowns: 4

While we saw Brady throw one to Lenny, the numbers were disastrous from a fantasy and MVP perspective. That is costly towards the end of season results.

He had 33 TD passes to this point in 2007, the year he led the Patriots to a 16–0 record, threw a then-record 50 TD passes, and was the league MVP.

We may have a tight race, but TB12 may not even be in the discussion at the end of the season. There are two or three other passers that have video game-like numbers.

Look at the three MVP seasons he had in 2007, 2010, and 2017.

  • 2007: 4,806 yards passing with 50 passing touchdowns
  • 2010: 3,900 yards passing with 36 passing touchdowns
  • 2017: 4,577 yards passing with 32 passing touchdowns

We saw Brady end up with flawless win-loss records in those three seasons as well. We saw a perfect 16-0 season in 2007 and 13-3 and 14-2 seasons during the other MVP seasons.

The team aspect should keep Brady in the hunt, but the numbers have fallen off a cliff in recent weeks.

  • Touchdowns in past five games: 9
  • Interceptions in past five games: 6
  • W-L Record: 2-2

While Tampa Bay could finish 12-5 or 11-6, there are at least three passers in the NFL that are more deserving. They may all have better records, and the team relies on their success even more than TB12.

The Tampa defense has shown flashes throughout the season. When the teams put it together, they can dominate a game. Of course, Fournette has been feasting on the competition. The Bucs will be favorites in every game until at least January.

The numbers don’t need to be there for Brady to earn victories, which will prove costly towards winning the MVP in 2021.

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Voters Will Look Elsewhere

The voters have seen TB12 win the award three times, and other players are right there for the taking.

Brady has been the top passer in league history, and there are five other quarterbacks that can dominate in December and January.

  • Lamar Jackson
  • Kyler Murray
  • Josh Allen
  • Aaron Rodgers
  • Patrick Mahomes

Four of those five could soon carry the NFL if you don’t consider them rockstars at the moment. Mahomes has picked up his play with a Kansas City team that is surging.

There are several other stellar options. The voters will be weighing all their options. The lack of featured games quietly could play a pivotal role.

Look at the remaining games for Tampa Bay.

  • Week 13: At Atlanta (Noon CST)
  • Week 14: Vs. Buffalo (3:25 pm CST)
  • Week 15: Vs. New Orleans (7:20 pm CST)
  • Week 16: At Carolina (Noon CST)
  • Week 17: At New York Jets (Noon CST)
  • Week 18: Vs. Carolina (Noon CST)

The Saints might be out of the playoff picture, which certainly worsens the chances of Brady putting together a worthy performance. Beating up on lowly teams didn’t help the MVP chances of Brady last season. Look at how the voting process worked this past season.

  • Aaron Rodgers (44 votes)
  • Josh Allen (4 votes)
  • Patrick Mahomes (2 votes)

Brady was nowhere in the voting. The same could occur this season. Josh Allen has two showdowns with New England before matching up with Brady in Tampa.

Allen may not be producing like last season, but he has a higher ceiling thanks to going up an elite New England defense. Knocking off an elite defense is impressive, especially if it is done once or twice on the national stage.

If you love to hate Brady or hope to see him find continued success, be sure to see where he ranks as one of the oldest NFL quarterbacks to win the Super Bowl with the link below.

The Oldest Quarterbacks in NFL History to Win the Super Bowl

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The Competition Is Fierce

Mahomes and the Chiefs are looking to become the fourth team in Super Bowl history to appear in three straight Super Bowls.

The Dolphins accomplished the task back in 1971-73. The Bills reached four straight from 1990-93, and the Patriots recently played in the big one from 2016-18. These three are all currently in the AFC East, but Mahomes could make Kansas City the fourth.

If we see the Chiefs run the table down the stretch and earn the top seed in the AFC, it might be too much for Brady to overcome. Plus, there are a few others to keep in mind.

The defending MVP winner is Aaron Rodgers, and he might have the league right where he wants them. The upcoming schedule could allow them to run the table.

  • Week 14: Vs. Chicago (7:20 pm CST)
  • Week 15: At Baltimore (3:25 pm CST)
  • Week 16: Vs. Cleveland (3:30 pm CST, Christmas Day)
  • Week 17: Vs. Minnesota (7:20 pm CST)
  • Week 18: At Detroit (Noon CST)

Perhaps Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will knock off the Packers, but Rodgers has sliced up the competition thus far. The 23-4 TD/INT ratio shown in 11 games played is absurd entering Week 13.

Davante Adams is posting another Pro Bowl-caliber of a season, but Aaron Jones has not been fully healthy. The key pieces have been missing at times, and it doesn’t matter. Even the role players have had issues staying on the field.

Yet Green Bay is on pace to finish 12-5 or 13-4 and be in play for the top seed. That will get the signal-caller a chance to repeat as the MVP winner. The three-time MVP winner is ready for his fourth.

Mahomes needs to be a viable option to win the award due to his late-season heroics. He has the skills and talent around him to win his second MVP.

The Chiefs are in dynasty mode, searching for another championship, and Mahomes could be the one to lead them back to the promised land.

Past Three Season under Mahomes
  • 2017: 10-6, Lost in Wild Card
  • 2018: 12-4, Lost in AFC Championship
  • 2019: 12-4, Won Super Bowl
  • 2020: 14-2, Lost Super Bowl

It is odd to note the last regular-season MVP to win the Super Bowl was Kurt Warner in 1999.

One would think that success during the season would equal postseason success, but that has been the kiss of death for quarterbacks. Go figure, Brady could potentially be receiving more luck come January.

Wide Open Odds

The odds entering Week 13 for the NFL MVP are available at to place a wager.

Tom Brady+300
Josh Allen+400
Aaron Rodgers+600
Patrick Mahomes+850
Dak Prescott+1200
Kyler Murray+1200
Matthew Stafford+1400

The odds suggest that a quarterback is a mortal lock to walk away with the award for a ninth straight season. Adrian Peterson in 2012 was the last non-quarterback to win.

Taking a quarterback that can get one of the top two or three seeds seems to be a given. There is only one team that gets a bye in the NFC and AFC, respectively.

MVP winners have often carried their offense on its back. The ability to control the tempo at the line of scrimmage is vital. The smartest signal-callers control the clock, and Aaron Rodgers might be the best of the bunch.

Rodgers has shown the ability to manage the clock better than anybody other than Brady. Rodgers controls the tempo better than anybody, which often hits zero when snapping the ball.

The young gunslingers with a lead may snap it 15-20 seconds remaining on the play clock, which can add up to a few minutes if a drive continues for ten or more plays. Winning is vital late in the season for seeding purposes, but the numbers aren’t far behind.

Allen had a great season last year and has been a bit inconsistent at times this season, but the overall numbers are still valuable.

  • Passing Touchdowns: 37
  • Total Touchdowns: 45
  • Total Yards: 3,454

Winning the AFC East will be a challenge with two games against New England coming up, but the Patriots lost to the Dolphins earlier in the season. A potential tiebreaker would favor Buffalo with a better divisional record.

Signs are pointing towards Allen staying in the MVP hunt, and many are awaiting the postseason he put together – after coming up short in the AFC Championship last season.

There is another sheriff in town that has put together sensational seasons in his career thus far. Kansas City has an elite play-caller and offense. Mahomes has not caught fire thanks to their defense improving. Health has been a factor but throwing for 3,200 yards is not too shabby.

The Texas Tech days were backyard football for Patrick Mahomes. The odds are suggesting great value on the current Kansas City passer.

The team may not lose another game with the way they have been playing. Coming off their bye week, I love the chances of Mahomes over Brady for the NFL MVP. Allen has to figure to be a better play as well.

Buffalo has no resemblance of a rushing attack without a stud back to hand the ball off to, but Allen running off tackle is a specialty for the squad towards the goal-line. Allen and his laser arm and his All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs are a dynamic duo.

Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson are two other young studs that could become factors, but I love the other three over the two youngsters. Mahomes, Allen, and Rodgers are all in great spots.

The odds are against Brady, and while he may be the best passer of his generation and beyond, other values can make your pockets deep.

Betting on the 2022 NFL MVP Winner

The numbers will be changing on a weekly occurrence. So, don’t get left out of the loop. There are different wagers to consider.

There are Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year awards and Coaching and Comeback Player of the Year prices on the market. Future wagers are often the most exciting since so much can change. Sports are often fluid, and there will always be underrated values available.

There are so many different sportsbooks and mobile apps to look at for the best value. If you enjoy wagering on football, be sure to check out the top NFL betting sites.



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