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Prediction and Pick for the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
This is (probably) Joe Burrow’s world, and we’re just living in it. The former LSU phenom is fresh off perhaps the best statistical season by a college football quarterback ever.
Oh, and he won the Heisman and led his Tigers to a national title.
Everything’s coming up Burrow, who also happened to be the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Sure, he has the unenviable task of turning around the Cincinnati Bengals, but the guy is on a heater.
It only makes sense that the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have him as the heavy favorite. Quarterbacks have won the award five times in the last decade, while a quarterback (Kyler Murray) just won in 2019.
But does any of this make Burrow a lock, and should you bet on him at his +250 odds? Let’s take a look at the other threats to win before coming to a prediction.
Assessing the Contenders
Joe Burrow is understandably the top threat. My introduction probably made that pretty clear, but if you’re not convinced, just note his odds, his pick status, and the fact that he’s walking into a guaranteed starting job.
Andy Dalton is gone already, while the Bengals have a nice supporting cast around Burrow. He makes total sense as the favorite.
Another big contender is Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs went out of their way to trade back into round one to get Burrow’s former teammate, and it’s likely he’ll have a big role from the jump.
Edwards-Helaire is exceptionally versatile and a fantastic receiver — two attributes that make him perfect for a loaded KC offense. If you’re looking for more reason to bet on him, consider my post on why Clyde Edwards-Helaire can win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
These are the two main threats with the best odds, but let’s not ignore Cam Akers or Jonathan Taylor. Two of the best running backs in college football last year, both of these guys have a real shot and tie for third (+900) in terms of ROY odds at BetOnline.
I tend to gravitate toward Akers more, though. Todd Gurley just left Los Angeles, and the Rams clearly weren’t totally sold on Darrell Henderson. If Akers has a big role in 2020, look out.
Tua Tagovailoa (+1000) and Justin Herbert (+1600) are the other two quarterbacks in this draft class that could threaten Joe Burrow. Neither is guaranteed a starting role immediately like Burrow is, but the value is obvious to see.
Feel free to take a look at more in-depth breakdowns of their chances of winning Rookie of the Year in 2020.
Who Will Win the 2020 NFL Offensive ROY?
There will always be room for some contenders or sleepers when talking about who will win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Some guys I didn’t even touch on, like Jerry Jeudy and other receivers, have a decent shot of at least being in the mix. Of course, wide receivers and tight ends both tend to take a little longer to pan out.
Seriously, of the last ten ROY winners, nine have been either a quarterback or running back.
Running backs traditionally have the easiest path to success in terms of transitioning to the pros, while quarterbacks arguably have more control over how well they can perform.
When you look at 2020, this again points to Joe Burrow. He’s the most NFL-ready offensive player in this entire draft class, he’s fresh off a brilliant year, and he’s honestly walking into a better-than-advertised situation in Ohio.
Burrow offers solid value considering how likely it is that he wins this award.
2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Pick
As much of a lock as Joe Burrow seems to be on paper, bettors need to consider all aspects when placing bets.
One is that another top contender could simply post better numbers or that a sleeper could emerge and offer insane value. If you’re looking to get away from betting on Joe Burrow, I really like Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a pivot up top or Justin Herbert as a value play.
Both of these guys need to carve out starting roles pretty early on, but I’ve detailed in links above why they both have the ability (and surrounding help) to enjoy excellent first seasons if things break right.
Unfortunately, a lot of what could happen isn’t in their control. Burrow is going to be the starting quarterback for the Bengals, and he has a great cast of weapons to work with.
I don’t mind a few other bets when it comes to this wager, but I’d be focusing the majority of my energy on Burrow at that +250 price at the best football betting websites.