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Prediction for Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov at UFC Fight Night – With Odds and Best Bets

| June 17, 2020 3:24 am PDT
Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov UFC

Curtis Blaydes takes on Alexander Volkov in a heavyweight clash of the titans this Saturday at the UFC APEX. 

Blaydes vs. Volkov will headline the promotion’s third event at the APEX in three weeks — following UFC 250 and UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo — and fans are certainly in high spirits for this one.

Blaydes enters the fight as the favorite on our top UFC betting sites, but Russia’s Volkov is far too dangerous to be completely written off. There is no doubt that some fans will see Volkov’s odds as good enough to take a punt on.

I’ll be covering the best bets and the Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov betting odds, as well as breaking this fight down a little for punters hoping to make a few dollars on the winner. But before I get into that, you can have my Blaydes vs. Volkov prediction right now. 

Blaydes vs. Volkov – Who Wins?

  • Curtis Blaydes by KO/TKO

Styles make fights, and this clash will certainly be interesting to those who favor the traditional boxer vs. striker matchup.

However, Curtis Blaydes has become more than just a wrestler over the course of the past few years. His striking has come on leaps and bounds, especially when it comes to counters. This makes him a very dangerous prospect indeed.

I’ll explain a little more about why I believe Blaydes’ weaponry to be superior to Volkov’s later. But I know you want to see those odds, so take a look before we progress any further.

Blaydes vs. Volkov Odds With Analysis

Curtis Blaydes to Win-400
Alexander Volkov to Win+300

Blaydes enters the contest as a -400 favorite to beat Volkov (+300) with BetOnline.

Having opened as the favorite in all of his UFC fights — bar his rematch with Francis Ngannou and fight with Alistair Overeem — Blaydes is no stranger to pressure. On Saturday night, he is expected to win by most.

But you cannot write off the 6’7″, 249-pound beast that is Volkov. Although he has seven career losses, he has fought 38 times since making his pro debut in 2009. He lacks no experience, that’s for sure.

Volkov opened as the favorite against Derrick Lewis in the only loss of his UFC run to date. Lewis famously knocked Volkov out with a ferocious punch with just 11 seconds remaining on the clock. In a fight that Volkov was winning, I might add.

When weighing these two up, the odds seem on point. There is just enough reward in those +300 odds for some fans to back Volkov to pull off an upset, but I’m not entirely sure I would be among those putting money on the Russian in this fight. 

Best Blaydes vs. Volkov Bets

I’ve taken the bets below from the Betway sportsbook. These odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change. 

The closer we get to Saturday night, the shorter Blaydes’ odds to win the fight will grow. I’m expecting them to close at around the -500 mark, which is some dip from the -235 they opened at with some UFC betting sites. 

On that basis, it might be a good idea to look at Blaydes vs. Volkov prop bets and specials to beef up the odds on the favorite. Well, that is if you are backing the favorite to win this fight. 

Just so you Volkov fans out there don’t feel left out, I’ve added a bet on the underdog that you might consider worthy. 

Blaydes to Win (-400)

The moneyline odds are -400. And while not exactly reason to jump for joy, this is a solid bet. 

Blaydes enters the contest as a future UFC champion in the making. He has to win this fight in order to establish himself as the number one contender in waiting behind Francis Ngannou. 

Surely a loss is out of the question?

Blaydes to Win by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ (-225)

If Blaydes is to win, I would be highly surprised if it takes him five rounds to get the job done.

Blaydes has only been to the judges’ scorecards on three occasions. The other ten victories have come by way of KO/TKO. He has never won a fight via submission, and I wouldn’t fancy him to change that in this fight.

If you can find better odds on our recommended sites for a Blaydes to win by KO/TKO bet, take them. If not, this isn’t the worst bet in the world.

Fight Under 4.5 Rounds (-400)

This fight is not going past the 4.5 round mark. Okay, I can’t say that with absolute certainty, but the odds are against it happening for a reason.

Volkov is the only fighter of the two to go five rounds, and that was back in 2012 when he won the Bellator heavyweight championship. Blaydes has only been on two headliners, and both have ended inside the distance. 

Volkov to Win by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ (+450)

While Blaydes has the edge in this fight, it is still a fight. Hence, anything can happen. 

We have seen some shock losses over the years, with the punters who backed the upset making some serious coin from their unlikely predictions. And while +450 is hardly the most jaw-dropping price in betting history, it is nice, all the same. 

Volkov won’t drag Blaydes to the cards. If he is going to win this fight, it will be something truly special. I won’t be backing him to win at all, but if you are, you might as well go for gold.

Why Blaydes Beats Volkov

This will be as interesting as it gets for as long as it lasts. But unfortunately for Volkov, I just think Blaydes is a terrible matchup for him.

Sure, the rewards for beating the best American heavyweight under 30 are more than enough to justify taking the fight, but I can’t see how Volkov deals with Blaydes. Yes, he is a big, imposing dude. And yes, he is an excellent striker, but his output will be nullified by the dangers of Blaydes’ wrestling.

And so it should be. After all, would you feel confident in throwing a 50/50 shot, or a hopeful combination when the most successful wrestler in the heavyweight division is standing opposite you? 

Volkov’s reach is 81″, which makes his steady, snapping jab rightly feared. His footwork is nice for a guy of his size, too. Throw in his average of 5.36 significant strikes per minute, and you have a fighter that should be confident in their abilities.

But Blaydes’ powerful wrestling and stupidly heavy hands make him a far scarier prospect. 

How Blaydes Wins This Fight

One of the most overlooked aspects of the UFC APEX fight cards is the 25-foot Octagon. This is five feet smaller than the standard size cage, which heavily favors fighters who thrive in close-quarter combat.

At UFC 250 and the Eye vs. Calvillo card, we saw fighters of this ilk find real success when it came to roughing up opponents, finding more opportunities for takedowns, and even knockouts and submissions.

This is yet another thing that will be in Blaydes’ favor on the night. He is almost guaranteed multiple takedowns in this fight, and with each takedown comes the prospect of having your face caved in, a la Alistair Overeem in June 2018.

Blaydes averages a ridiculous 6.63 takedowns every 15 minutes, and I expect this statistic to look as good, if not better, when the fight is over.

Blaydes wins this fight by of some nasty ground and pound in the second round. 

Betting on Blaydes vs. Volkov

Blaydes to win by way of TKO is my bet for this fight. I see the American having a long and fruitful career in the promotion, and I am looking forward to him showing his potential on Saturday night.

You can get more Blaydes vs. Volkov betting material on our UFC betting blog. I’ll be providing predictions for all fights on the undercard, as well as the top sleepers and value bets to target. 

Be sure to check those pieces out over the next few days!

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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