Predicting Who’ll Go First in the 2020 NFL Draft – Tua Tagovailoa and Other Top Candidates

| October 1, 2019 10:22 am PDT
NFL Draft 2020 Betting Update

Betting on the NFL Draft doesn’t have to be difficult. Bettors will have a few misses here and there, much like the top experts do with their mock drafts. But generally speaking, if you keep yourself tuned into what’s happening and pay attention to movement when it comes to NFL Draft odds, you should be in good shape.

The one NFL Draft prediction that is typically the easiest to get right is who will be picked overall. Either everyone knows months ahead of time who will be the top pick in the NFL Draft, or we find out before the first pick is announced.

It’s not always going to be the most profitable prediction to bet on, though. No matter who it is and when the public learns the truth, the top favorite often won’t offer much value. Due to this, bettors need to consider going hard at the current favorite or considering which NFL Draft sleepers are worth backing to go #1 overall.

To do either of those things, you first need to hit up the top NFL Draft sportsbooks to check out the latest odds.

Latest 2020 NFL Draft Odds – First Overall Pick

Going into the 2020 NFL Draft, there’s no denying that Alabama stud quarterback Tua Tagovailoa appears to be a lock to go first overall.

It’s hard to go against that logic right now, either. Of the seven NFL teams that are winless and in contention for the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, four of them should seriously consider Tagovailoa if they do in fact “earn” the first overall selection.

Tagovailoa himself is one of the top contenders to win this year’s Heisman, too, while he has the Crimson Tide in the title conversation in college football. By all accounts, he has the look and feel of a first overall pick, and the talent figures to meet the dire need.

Of course, things don’t always go according to plan. What feels concrete now may not be so guaranteed later. Just look back to the 2019 NFL Draft when Nick Bosa was the favorite for months, only to see Kyler Murray rise up and nab the top spot.

The year before that, nobody felt Baker Mayfield had a shot to go number one overall. Throughout the draft season, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen appeared to be ahead of him in the pecking order.

There are going to be NFL Drafts where the first overall pick is incredibly obvious. NFL Draft bettors just need to gauge if the picture is painted for us already or if that “obvious” top pick will show itself at a later date.

Step number one is to first familiarize yourself with the top candidates and their odds to go first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. Here is every player currently offering a price for bettors at the top NFL betting websites.

There are three things anyone betting on the top pick of the 2020 NFL Draft needs to consider: what team will pick first overall, whether or not they need a franchise quarterback, and which non-quarterbacks have the talent to garner #1 overall pick consideration.

It sounds simple, but it’s October now.

Things can change quite a bit over the next few months, so unless you’re waiting to bet on this wager, you need to factor various things into your betting equation.

Who Will Pick #1 Overall in the 2020 NFL Draft?

After looking at the latest 2020 NFL Draft odds, the main thing bettors will want to think about is who will own that top pick once the 2019 NFL regular season is over.

That’s the true starting point here. If it was the San Francisco 49ers picking #1 last year and not the Arizona Cardinals, one of two things would have happened: Nick Bosa would have been the first pick, or that draft choice would have gotten traded.

The latter will always need to be considered, but first things first: who will be picking first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft?

It is still incredibly early in the NFL season.

As I write this, week 4 has only just begun, and it may take over half of the season before we know for sure which handful of teams have a shot at nabbing the top pick. As things stand (at the time of this writing), here are your best bets to pick first in the 2020 NFL Draft and their current status.

  • Miami Dolphins (0-3)
  • New York Jets (0-3)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3)
  • Cincinnati Bengals (0-3)
  • Denver Broncos (0-3)
  • Oakland Raiders (1-2)
  • Washington Redskins (0-3)
  • New York Giants (1-2)
  • Arizona Cardinals (0-2-1)

Things could change in a week’s time for some of these teams, and we could go back and forth on several throughout the year.

The mainstays figure to be the Redskins, Steelers, Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, and of course, the Dolphins.

Oakland has enough veteran players to probably avoid the bottom of the league, New York may be in good hands with Daniel Jones now leading the way, and Sam Darnold could return to save the Jets.

Perhaps the Redskins get saved by Dwayne Haskins at some point and a veteran Bengals team wakes up and turns their season around, too.

You could place a bet on any of these teams finishing dead last in the NFL, but the best bet continues to be Miami. The Dolphins are a viable bet to go winless on the year and seem to be fully intent on losing as many games as possible.

Suffice it to say, it may take some serious dedication for anyone to unseat them for the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Which Teams Need Tua Tagovailoa?

Beyond just wondering who will end up picking first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, bettors need to look at which NFL teams actually need a franchise quarterback.

Teams like the Giants, Redskins, and Jets don’t. If they land the top pick, they’d probably look to trade it, or you’d have to start conversing over which non-Tua options they’d select (more on that in a bit).

Like I said before, the season is still young, too.

Another Tua Tagovailoa suitor could emerge and slide into the running for the #1 pick. Because of that, bettors should consider which teams either badly need quarterback help or could look to make a big change under center.

  • Miami Dolphins
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Oakland Raiders
  • Tennessee Titans
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Denver Broncos

The Miami Dolphins are obvious, but all of these other teams either have a veteran on their roster or have a young passer worth taking a look at. That being said, would it be shocking to see Cincy finally move on from Andy Dalton or Pittsburgh to draft the future successor of Ben Roethlisberger?

I’d say no, while it’s still possible Jon Gruden isn’t sold on Derek Carr. Also, guys like Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett, and Drew Lock aren’t regarded as concrete options going forward.

Of the lot, the one team I’d be less inclined to target would be Indy. The Colts seem to be smitten with Brissett, and he’s off to a fine start. Everyone else here could be looking for a change at the quarterback position, however.

Can Someone Other Than Tua Tagovailoa Go #1 Overall?

You’ve taken a look at the latest NFL Draft odds, identified which teams are horrific enough to fall into the #1 pick, and which teams would want/need the best quarterback in the draft.

That’s a lot of work, my people. Have a soda.

When you’re ready to get back at it, then take a gander at what other top prospects have a shot at vying for the first overall pick. Tagovailoa is the top option right now, but he’s not alone, and time could change how he’s viewed in the draft community.

If that trickles down to the team picking at #1 — or they don’t need a quarterback — then things could change rather quickly.

Realistically, though, here are the top options that could unseat Tua at #1 overall come draft time.

Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

Tagovailoa is clearly the best quarterback prospect in this year’s draft, but what if the team picking #1 overall doesn’t agree? Herbert’s lone bad game came against a very good Auburn team and, well, he wasn’t even bad.

Accurate, athletic, and blessed with plenty of arm talent, Herbert seems to have the skill-set you look for at the next level. Few really think he’s the top quarterback in this draft class, but it just takes one team picking before everyone else to change that.

Georgia’s Jake Fromm is your next best bet if/when a passer goes first overall, but he’s a distant third behind the top two options.

Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

The Buckeyes have dominated the draft when it comes to, well, everything. But their pass rushing talent has really been on point in recent years, with Joey and Nick Bosa earning top picks.

Young is looking like a top-5 lock as the game’s best pure pass rusher. A variety of pass rushing moves, excellent size, and the ability to sniff out the run make him the total package.

With the ability to make an instant impact and help turn a struggling defense around, Young feels like one of the major threats to a perceived Tua-dominated top spot.

Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

My gut tells me Tua is the top pick, Herbert is the easy pivot at quarterback, and realistically, the only other option bettors need to worry about is Chase Young. That being said, I can see a lane for college football’s best offensive tackle, Andrew Thomas.

There is always a big need for pass protection help, and the team that will likely be picking here (Miami) just traded away Laremy Tunsil, their starting left tackle.

Thomas has the size, length, and athleticism that NFL executives love to see, but he’s also a pretty advanced technical player. If scouts believe his transition will be smooth and the need is there, it’s tough to write him off based on how important the left tackle position is.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

This is the last option for me, and considering wide receivers do not go this high anymore, it’s fairly far-fetched. The only caveat is that Jeudy could be the next Julio Jones, and that’s not an exaggeration.

Teams still value stud wide receivers, and Jeudy’s combination of size, athleticism, and discipline makes him a very attractive offensive weapon. The position is tough to argue for the #1 overall pick, but it’s hard to point to many teams vying for this spot that wouldn’t love to have this kid.

I don’t see Jeudy going first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, but his +3000 odds are pretty nice, and from a sheer talent perspective, worse bets could be made.

To me, these five aforementioned NFL Draft prospects are your best bets. They all offer pretty nice betting value, they’re all immensely talented, and they also cater to various teams that have different needs and could vie for the top pick in the draft.

Bettors do love them some upside, though, so let’s not completely ignore Derrick Brown, Raekwon Davis, Walker Little, or A.J. Epenesa. None of those guys should be the top pick, but they’ve all been mocked very high at some point and look like future studs.

If you want crazy upside, consider C.J. Henderson or Dylan Moses (+30000!). They’re not safe bets at all, but they’re respectively two of the best prospects at the cornerback and linebacker positions.

NFL Draft Prediction for the Top Pick

Ultimately, the race for the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft is going to come down to two factors — what team gets there, and do they need a quarterback?

As things stand, it’s not as cut and dry as one would think, as some of the worst teams in the league right now already theoretically have solved their quarterback problem.

Regardless, it stands to reason that the most abhorrent team will finish the year with the worst record, and there’s a chance they’d need to upgrade under center. Both situations should align with the Miami Dolphins picking first overall.

The lack of effort in even assembling talent or players that are competent — heck, that even care — is astonishing. The Dolphins are going to need some truly miraculous things to break their way to get a win this year, and winning multiple games seems like an obnoxious joke.

Miami doesn’t have their quarterback of the future on their roster, either. That obviously should lead them to door number one, which is Tua Tagovailoa. I think there is some wiggle room with Justin Herbert there, while Miami is barren enough across the rest of their roster that serious consideration is required for o-line and defensive help.

All roads come back to the tried and true question, though. Do you have a quarterback? If not, you better go get one. Miami will almost certainly own the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and — as fluid as this draft process can be — I’d be shocked if Tua Tagovailoa isn’t on their roster come next season.

Considering that, Tua is a pretty good bet at -200, especially since it’s extremely unlikely his odds will ever get any better for bettors.

Pick
  • Tua Tagovailoa
    -200
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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