Predicting Who Will Win at the 2022 Golden Globe Awards

| January 6, 2022 1:06 pm PST

I wish I could say the 2022 Golden Globes will go down without a hitch this weekend. However, as things stand, they don’t even have a network to televise one of the biggest awards shows in history.

While it remains to be seen what happens with that, the 2022 Golden Globe Awards will still go on. The top sites for betting on entertainment are still offering props and odds for the key categories, so you can make some cash, too.

If you want to literally watch yourself make money, consider taking a look at my 2022 Critics Choice Awards betting guide, as the two events share the stage on Sunday, January 9th. The Golden Globes are the bigger, badder awards show, though, so I thought it’d make sense to help bettors out.

With that, let’s get to my 2022 Golden Globes predictions.

Will Smith to Win Best Actor in a Drama Film (-190)

Will Smith in King Richard

The buzz surrounding Will Smith’s performance in King Richard has been permeating for months. Smith dug deep for an inspiring – and surprisingly accurate – portrayal of the father of tennis superstars, Venus and Serena Williams.

Despite giving past efforts worthy of being nominated for two Oscars, Smith has been left empty-handed at the highest level of acting. He’s garnered even more nods at the Golden Globes (6!), but he’s always exited without any hardware.

That should change at the 2022 Golden Globes, as he’s a solid -190 favorite at BetUS, and just about every online betting site pegs him as the favorite to win.

Benedict Cumberbatch (+250) delivered a gruff performance worthy of consideration in The Power of the Dog and Denzel Washington feels overlooked after crushing it in The Tragedy of Macbeth (+900), but Smith’s time is now.

Andrew Garfield to Win Best Actor in a Musical (-225)

The field for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy isn’t that strong this year. I mean, it technically is, as Peter Dinklage (+300) and Leonardo DiCaprio (+900) are heavyweights that would have a real shot in any other year.

However, this category puts more of an onus on the musical aspect, and Andrew Garfield knocked it out of the park in Tick, Tick…Boom!

Garfield was set up beautifully by musical genius Lin-Manuel Miranda, but he tugged at heart strings, and he embodies everything you want out of a nominee in this Golden Globes category.

A running theme when betting on the 2022 Golden Globes is there are a lot of favorites who seem painfully obvious, and yet their pricing isn’t that egregious.

Garfield is one of them. He feels like a slam dunk here, and yet his -225 odds still feel like a bargain for bettors.

Jeremy Strong to Win Best Actor in a TV Drama (-270)

When you think of the best TV shows right now, Succession has to be near the top of the list – if not firmly planted at #1.

Jeremy Strong’s work on the HBO hit is a big reason for its success, and his -270 odds reflect the likelihood that he gets honored for his efforts.

He didn’t get a crack at a win in this category at the 2021 Emmys, but he looks like the clear frontrunner going into the 2022 Golden Globe Awards.

Co-star Brian Cox is likely his main threat (+500), and it’s impossible to ignore past winner Billy Porter (+750) or the rising Lee Jung-jae (+500).

However, there isn’t a better show going right now, and Strong is a massive part of that vehicle. I’d jump all over his -270 odds and never look back.

Ewan McGregor to Win Best Actor in a Miniseries (+900)

I was all over McGregor going into the 2021 Emmys. He was one of my four favorite sleepers, and while I liked his chances at an upset (he had +900 odds at the time), I was still pretty floored when he actually won.

McGregor could have a real shot at staging another upset at the same price as the 2022 Golden Globes arrive this weekend.

There are amazing performances, and then there are situations where an actor is totally lost in a role and becomes the person he’s trying to bring to life.

That was the case with McGregor, who delivered the goods when taking on the role of iconic fashion designer, Halston.

His own sobriety could be thanks to it.

“I became sober in 2000. So now, when I’m looking at characters who are addicts, I look at it through a lens of understanding it more.”Ewan McGregor on playing Halston

Michael Keaton and Oscar Isaac share the spotlight as co-favorites with +120 odds, but there are absolutely spots where you can aim high, and this is one of them.

For a refresher, just look back at some of the biggest upsets in Golden Globes history.

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Jason Sudeikis to Win Best Actor in a Comedy Series (-600)

Ted Lasso isn’t going anywhere. The man who plays the titular character in television’s best comedy isn’t leaving without a win at the 2022 Golden Globes, either.

Jason Sudeikis has endured a turbulent two-year stretch, but over the past year he’s largely been in the limelight for all the right reasons. One of them was his stellar work on the award-winning Ted Lasso, for which he claimed an Emmy in 2021.

Sudeikis has been cleaning up lately, as he also nabbed a SAGs Award, and even won here at the Golden Globes in 2021, as well.

A repeat figures to be in the cards. Sudeikis is not only incredibly deserving, has massive odds, and has serious momentum, but he’s at the top of a pretty weak field.

Martin Short and Steve Martin (+700 and +600 odds, respectively) arguably cancel each other out, despite both showing up in Only Murders in the Building.

Kristen Stewart to Win Best Actress in a Drama Film (-250)

Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana

This is another race that isn’t remotely close. Unlike the Sudeikis price, though, Kristen Stewart still offers really nice betting value thanks to -250 odds at most of the top Golden Globes betting sites.

Of course, Stewart will have to fend off the surging Olivia Colman (+400), who claimed an Emmy for her work in The Crown in 2021 and has people talking again due to Maggie Gyllenhaal’s riveting The Lost Daughter.

It’s not like the field is weak, either. Big names like Jessica Chastain and Nicole Kidman are vying for the top spot, while even Lady Gaga is seemingly going overlooked.

Still, this was always Stewart’s race. She dazzles in Spencer, where she morphs into the late Princess Diana, and makes you forget it’s a performance at all.

Kate Winslet to Win Best Actress in a Miniseries (-600)

Kate Winslet in Mare of Easttown

I’ve been on the Kate Winslet Train for a while now. Obviously, she’s been a great actress with some brilliant performances on the big screen, but in my opinion, putting on the mask of a tortured small-town detective is her true career-defining moment.

Winslet is incredibly authentic as she endures a gritty hunt for a killer, while battling a dark past and inner demons.

Perfectly blunt and vulnerable, when necessary, Winslet carves out a nuanced effort that ultimately feels painfully real and woefully relatable.

This grief-stricken tour de force earned her a win at the 2021 Emmys, and I don’t see much reason to bet against her here.

The odds aren’t appealing, of course, but I haven’t fallen in love with any of the other options like I did with Winslet in Mare of Easttown.

Jean Smart to Win Best Actress in a Comedy Series (-350)

I think we can lean on the 2021 Emmys results for a lot of these Golden Globes predictions. I would still take my shots at some deserving value, but a lot of the winners at the Emmys still make too much sense here.

That logic certainly applies to the legendary Jean Smart, who took home this same award at this year’s Emmy Awards.

Smart is an institution, but she’s also been as good as ever in the latter stages of her acting career.

You shouldn’t miss an impressive dramatic turn in Mare of Easttown, but she’s undeniably at her best when she’s marrying dry humor with raw emotion.

Hacks is the perfect vehicle for Smart to excel in both genres, and her racquetball banter with co-star Hannah Einbinder helps carry a truly underrated series that scored a perfect 100% at Rotten Tomatoes in season one.

Jane Campion to Win Best Director (-200)

Jane Campion

This is another easy call. Jane Campion has been the clear leader for Best Director all year long, as he pieced together a methodical, mysterious western in The Power of the Dog.

Campion first really made a name for herself with an Oscar for best screenplay (The Piano in 1995), but this is her crowning achievement as the one behind the camera.

The Power of the Dog offers a star-studded cast that is pulled and prodded perfectly, and fully utilized in a slow avalanche of torment and deception.

Campion drops little hints that lead to an eventual dark twist, which puts her candidacy as Best Director over the top for me.

Belfast is in the running for Best Picture everywhere, so you have to give Kenneth Branagh a look (+180), while the great Steven Spielberg (+650) is never easy to edge out. Maggie Gyllenhaal is also shaping up as a worthwhile sleeper at her alluring +1400 price.

Still, this is the year of Jane Campion, and we all know it.

Belfast to Win Best Picture (+110)

While I think Campion wins Best Director at the Golden Globes, it’s worth noting that Best Picture doesn’t always align with that award.

It probably shouldn’t, either.

Story, acting performances, and public narrative can sway voters in different directions. I wouldn’t be too shocked if The Power of the Dog did end up getting the win, but Belfast stands out as the more complete product.

At least for the Golden Globes, it feels like splitting these awards so both Jane Campion and Kenneth Branagh are properly rewarded for their work seems fitting.

Succession to Win Best TV Drama (-300)

I like the value and logic in betting on Belfast to win Best Picture. It only gets easier from there when trying to predict who will win other big categories at the 2022 Golden Globes.

One seemingly easy call is for Succession to win Best TV Drama. Jeremy Strong is a good bet to secure Best Actor in a similar category, and his series hasn’t slowed down one bit.

Here’s Succession’s season-by-season rating so far at Rotten Tomatoes.

  • Season 1: 88%
  • Season 2: 97%
  • Season 3: 97%

These all started out close to 100%, too, while Succession stole the show at the Emmys in 2020, and won here at the Golden Globes that same year.

Squid Game offers the wow factor and some value (+200), but Succession is the best show on TV right now. They’re the right pick here, and despite being an obvious bet, the -300 price is still plenty appealing.

Ted Lasso to Win Best TV Comedy (-350)

Ted Lasso is winning again, too. Jason Sudeikis is taking home another win, and there’s zero reason to suspect his fun-loving series won’t get the nod, as well.

The show did get edged out by Schitt’s Creek at the Golden Globes on the latter’s exit from the small screen last year, but got the win at the 2021 Emmys.

Expect Ted Lasso’s rise to continue with an emphatic win in 2022.

Mare of Easttown to Win Best Miniseries (-250)

Last, but not least, is the riveting Mare of Easttown, which engineered perhaps the best performance of Kate Winslet’s impressive career, and told a unique, layered tale of grief and redemption.

You wouldn’t necessarily get that from this brilliant trailer.

Mare of Easttown was tough to peg going into it, and that’s kind of the point. It tells multiple stores at once, and they’re all rolled into one underlying message.

The other options in this category provide interesting value, but Mare of Easttown is the total package. After failing to win at the Emmys, I think it gets the job done here, now that it doesn’t have to fend off The Queen’s Gambit.

Betting on the 2022 Golden Globe Awards

2022 Golden Globes graphic

Believe it or not, I didn’t even cover everything. There are still props for the best supporting actors and actresses, and a slew of other wagers.

You can hit them up wherever you choose to bet on entertainment betting markets, but the options and odds listed above can all be found at BetUS.

I tried to focus on the Golden Globes predictions I felt really strongly about. These are the picks I like to win, and it’s a little surprising how much value you can get right now.

My Golden Globes predictions are just one piece of the puzzle, though. If you need a little extra help finding the best site to bet on the Golden Globes, or anything to do with this year’s event, check out our Golden Globe Awards betting guide below.

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Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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