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Possible Upsets to Target in the Week of September 17th

| September 18, 2018 12:00 am PDT
Broncos Raiders Red Sox and Cardinals|Broncos Raiders Red Sox and Cardinals

It was another productive week calling some upsets in the sports betting world.

I told my loyal readers that things would get a lot more interesting once the 2018 NFL season rolled around, and while that doesn’t exactly hand out any guarantees, I did deliver last week.

The first week of NFL action left the door open to some unpredictability, but as the weeks march on, bettors should get a better grasp of teams, trends, and areas where you can exploit betting value.

It’s not just about pro football, either. There is always going to be the opportunity to maximize underdog value, no matter the sport you prefer to dabble in.

Right now, the NFL is a great spot to maximize earnings potential, however. It’s still wise to target favorites in the right setting and grind your way to profit, but this is a volatile sport that gives way to a lot of upside.

Week in Review

I already locked into that upside in week two in an effort to add onto my 36-51-2 upset picks record. I saw serious value in both the Colts (+200) and Chiefs (+200) as big road underdogs and pounced.

Both teams scored week two wins, so right there alone you came out of last week a big winner if you rolled with my underdog picks.

Let’s take a look at how I did last week as a whole.

  • Kansas City Chiefs over Pittsburgh Steelers+200
  • Indianapolis Colts over Washington Redskins+200
  • New York Giants over Dallas Cowboys+150
  • Calgary Stampeders ATS vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats+100
  • Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks+107

I’ll take a 3-2 record any day of the week, and that gets me going in the right direction again, boosting my season upset picks mark to 39-53-2.

The G-Men couldn’t protect Eli Manning and kept me from going a perfect 3-0 last week with my NFL upset picks, but I still came out on top. Calgary scored a win over Hamilton, so I went 3-1 overall on the gridiron.

The Rockies didn’t really come close to converting their +107 price tag, but they were a worthy try in their home park.

I certainly am not disappointed with last week’s results. Hopefully you were on some of those winners with me, and the aim is to keep the positive momentum rolling into the new week. Let’s dive in.

Denver Broncos (+195) over Baltimore Ravens (-225)

After enjoying some success with a couple of NFL underdog picks in week two, I’m raring to go back to the well in week three. You do have to pick your spots, of course, as I don’t see quite as many tempting spots this time around.

One that is interesting goes down in Baltimore, where the 1-1 Ravens will play host to the undefeated Broncos. Denver has relied on clutch play thus far from new quarterback Case Keenum but also has the defense and running game to get a win here and move to 3-0.

I think we’re getting a good feel for who the Broncos are, but the Ravens are a mystery.

The Ravens housed the Bills (not much of an accomplishment) and then didn’t really impress in a loss to the Bengals on Thursday night.

Vegas likes the Ravens at home here, but their defense might have gotten exposed against Cincinnati. A similarly talented Denver passing game could use that game as a blueprint to control this one. At a cool +195, I’m not about to bet against a Broncos team that has yet to lose in 2018.

PICKDenver Broncos+195

Oakland Raiders (+141) over Miami Dolphins (-161)

Miami is oddly enough another team that enters week three at a perfect 2-0, and they’ll be playing host to Jon Gruden and the Raiders.

Oakland is on the reverse side of things, as they fell apart in the second half of week one and lost a tense week two tilt to Denver in the final moments.

I actually think Gruden is doing a fine job fielding a competitive team, but the Raiders have dealt with some bad decisions, penalties, and ultimately some bad luck.

Gruden’s struggles to begin his return to the league are well documented these days, but eventually, he’s going to get that elusive first win.

Considering I’m not a big believer in the fish just yet, this looks like a solid spot to shoot for the Silver and Black getting off the schneid. We know Derek Carr is talented, and he’s got a solid supporting cast around him. In what could be a shootout, I’ll take the Raiders by a hair.

PICKOakland Raiders+141

Boston Red Sox (+127) over New York Yankees (-137)

The Red Sox have the AL East and the top seed in baseball locked up, so I get that they could be resting guys down the stretch. They’re also on the road in Yankee Stadium.

These things are true, but they still want to win games and stay in a groove. This is a rivalry, after all, while Boston also is the best team in the majors and more specifically is better than New York.

It’s rare you get the Sox at +127, so I’m hopping all over them for Tuesday night’s tilt in New York.

PICKBoston Red Sox+127

St. Louis Cardinals (+130) over Atlanta Braves (-140)

Another MLB game I liked for Tuesday is the Cards in ATL taking on the Braves.

Atlanta is still trying to wrap up the NL East division crown, while St. Louis needs things to break their way just to land a spot in the NL wild card game.

The Cardinals have a lot more riding on this game and this series, so I feel compelled to look their way. This sweet price gives me an added boost, while I’m not particularly worried about a showdown with Anibal Sanchez.

Sanchez has admittedly been much better than usual in 2018, but he’s still a pitcher a talented Cardinals offense could get to. In what should be a low-scoring affair, the Cards have a shot to return solid value as they keep inching toward that wild card game.

PICKSt. Louis Cardinals+130

Summary

I know I’m keeping it light with about four upset picks a week, but that’s to express two harsh realities in the world of sports betting: there aren’t always a long line of underdogs worth targeting, and it’s often wise to narrow down your options so that you only bet hard on wagers you feel very strongly about.

That’s especially the case when it comes to underdogs. Vegas prices these upsets a certain way to provide incentive but also because that’s how they figure the public will view matchups and potentially bet.

Any game can bounce any way, but typically, if you’re going against a favorite, you’re assuming some very real risk.

That’s not different with my four upset picks this week, but I do like the value and the possibility of a few of these (if not all of them) converting.

My path to +.500 upset picks continues this week. Whether you join me or not, I wish you luck. Happy betting, and enjoy the games!

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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