Possible Upsets to Target in the Week of September 10th

By Noah Davis
Published on September 11, 2018
Weekly Upset Picks

Football returned this past week and was about as crazy as I expected it to be. That bad man Aaron Rodgers defied injury and a 20-0 hole at home against the Bears, while Ryan Fitzpatrick trumped Drew Brees in a crazy Louisiana shootout that totaled 88 points.

Those were just two of 16 pro football games to start the year, too.

Elsewhere, the Browns nearly topped the Steelers, and while they failed, they gave the 2018 NFL season its first tie. Adrian Peterson also turned back the clock, while Tom Brady and the Pats looked to be in mid-season form in a nice home win over the Houston Texans.

And that was just the NFL.

Serena Williams lost her cool and a US Open title, while the Milwaukee Brewers continued their surge back to the top of the NL Central.

Through it all, I handed out some upset picks, and while I didn’t come away with a winning mark this time around, I nearly landed some killer value.

All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from SportsBetting.ag on 9/11/2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.

Week in Review

I entered last week trying to build upon an improving 35-49-1 upset picks mark. Things didn’t go as planned, as the Falcons let go of a late lead in Philly, and the Cubs couldn’t handle the Brewers in the first game of an intense NL Central series.

Cleveland almost delivered an awesome upset win at a cool +195 price, but they blew at least four chances to put away a tense contest with the rival Steelers. That game ended in a tie, though, so at least you didn’t lose your cash.

My lone win of the week came via the Athletics, who got you respectable +100 value. Here’s how everything played out with the pricing.

  • Falcons over Eagles+120
  • Browns over Steelers+195
  • Cubs over Brewers+107
  • Athletics over Yankees+100

These were all solid tries in the end. Atlanta should have easily taken down a Nick Foles-led Eagles squad but simply could not finish in the red zone. In fact, Matt Ryan had a wide-open slant for the game-winning score on the final play of the game but opted to force a jump ball to a double-covered Julio Jones.

That was unfortunate, while Cleveland also shot themselves in the foot in a game where a blocked field goal in OT perfectly summed up their NFL existence.

I’ll take a 1-2-1 record, all things considered. Let’s get back on the horse and see if we can’t nail some more underdog picks and add to this 36-51-2 record.

Calgary Stampeders (-1.5) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+1.5)

I’ve dabbled with CFL picks in the past and have had a couple upsets and a few other close calls. Hamilton has burned me at least twice, so there is admitted hesitance with any games dealing with them.

Obviously, Vegas projects this as a tight game, and the Tiger-Cats have the mild edge with this contest being in their own backyard. To this point in the CFL season, Hamilton has gone 3-2 at home and have worked their way up to a tie for first place in the East Division.

Calgary is the understandable favorite, though. They’re 9-2 overall, have one of the most potent offenses in the league, and have been a solid 3-2 on the road.

I know Hamilton has the offense to keep this one close, but Calgary only needs to win by two points to bring back a sweet +100 price. This is something I’ve been pointing to lately, where you can get dog money without actually taking on the risk of an underdog.

Calgary is very much the favorite to win. You just need them to do so by two, and I think they can.

PICKCalgary Stampeders (-1.5)+100

Indianapolis Colts over Washington Redskins

The first week of NFL betting didn’t go my way, but it honestly almost did. The Falcons and Browns were solid plays, and both had a shot at winning on the last play of their contests.

This time around, I think betting on the Colts when they travel to D.C. is far from a terrible idea.

I actually touched on Indy as a great against-the-spread pick in my early look at week two NFL betting lines, and I think they’re worth a look as a straight-up upset pick at a +200 price, too.

Andrew Luck put up solid numbers and looked plenty good despite playing in his first meaningful NFL game in well over a year. He put his team in position to win at home against the Bengals, but a teammate’s fumble iced it for the other side.

With Indy’s season quickly about to unravel with an ugly 0-2 start, Luck could again put the Colts on his repaired shoulder and score a big win over a Redskins team that might be a tad overrated after winning in Arizona last week.

PICKIndianapolis Colts+200

Kansas City Chiefs (+200) over Pittsburgh Steelers (-240)

Week two will be very interesting, as it’s going to quickly allow NFL bettors to find out just how good or bad some teams are. KC went off on the Chargers in Los Angeles, and they’ll try to stay hot as they take it to the road in Pittsburgh this week.

Normally the Steelers would be an easy pick at home, but they barely ended in a tie with the Cleveland Browns last week. They just feel like auto-favorites here, especially when you look at the price.

As good as the Chiefs looked in a dismantling of a good Chargers team, they’re absolutely worth a flier bet at this nice +200 price tag.

PICKKansas City Chiefs+200

New York Giants (+150) over Dallas Cowboys (-170)

There are a few more NFL upset picks to take a look at (like the Browns), but I’ll cap things off with the G-Men. They head to Big D to battle the rival Cowboys, while both of these NFC East squads will be searching for their first win of the 2018 NFL season.

Before the season started, I would have picked the Cowboys to be the better team, but they looked horrendous in Carolina on Sunday. New York had an arguably tougher matchup at home against the Jaguars, yet actually gave Jacksonville a fight.

The jury is still out on both of these squads, but Big Blue looks to have the better defense and more balanced offense.

I already like the Giants against the spread this week, so why not aim a little higher with their +150 moneyline?

PICKNew York Giants+150

Colorado Rockies (+107) over Arizona Diamondbacks (-117)

I love it when I can get a good team at home as the underdog. That’s exactly what you’re looking at with the Rockies on Tuesday night when they play host to the rival D’Backs.

These teams are headed in very opposite directions right now. At the time of this writing, Arizona had dropped 7 of their last 10, while Colorado is holding onto a slim lead atop the NL West.

The Rockies have a lot to play for at the moment and can be very tough in their home park. Normally I wouldn’t bet hard against Zack Greinke, but he’s at his best at home at Chase Field.

This is a time to side with the Rockies and nab some value.

PICKColorado Rockies+107


The MLB season is winding down just as the NFL season is roaring to life, but these two sports are probably your main focus at the moment.

There is also CFL and a few other sports, while you can also try chasing some upsets in college football. Those can be a bit trickier, so for now, I’ll settle with these five upset picks and aim to come out on top for the new week.

Hopefully my underdog picks help you profit. Either way, I wish you luck. Happy betting, and enjoy the games!


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Possible Upsets to Target in the Week of September 10th
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Possible Upsets to Target in the Week of September 10th
Looking back at last week’s upset picks and previewing the next few days to see where the upset value is in the sports betting world this week.
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