Possible Upsets to Bet on This Week – Upset Picks for 10/8 – 10/14
Published on October 09, 2018
Last week was a pretty good time to make a run at some upsets. This was largely the case in the NFL, as would-be guaranteed losers like the Jets, Bills, Browns, and others fought back and earned themselves victories.
It didn’t just extend to the gridiron, of course, as there was some elite betting value to be had in preseason NBA action as well as on the MLB diamonds.
Fortunately, I wasn’t quite as off as I was the week prior, and I was able to add to my 38-59-2 upset picks record.
Obviously, my record needs some work, but when you’re dealing with only underdogs – and sometimes ambitious ones – you need to learn to take your lumps.
I’m sure anyone who put down big money on Conor McGregor is one with that sentiment right about now.
Regardless, I actually found some success last week. Let’s see if I can do the same this week!
Here’s a look at how my underdog picks panned out.
I actually had a fourth pick, but I gaffed on the schedule. Technically I was right in picking Boston’s opponent to beat a +4.5 point spread, but I’m not notching the win.
Oakland was a major letdown. They’ve been in basically every game this year, yet they got housed by a seemingly middling Chargers team. That’s pretty pathetic considering this is a rivalry game and Oakland absolutely had to win.
Arizona did not burn me, as they stepped up just as I thought they would. They got a nice 10-point win over the rival Niners and scored you a solid +185 price in the process.
The Rockies got me to 2-1 on the week by taking down the Cubs. Their +116 price wasn’t through the roof, but that gave you two solid wins and a week of profiting.
I can’t ask for much more than that, and had I not messed up on the team names I was breaking down, it would have been a 3-1 record on the week. Overall, I head into another week of underdog picks with an improved 40-60-2 record.
The NFL is the place to hunt down upsets right now, and if you’re going to roll the dice, you will usually need to assume some risk with a road dog. I am not seeing any amazing upset picks with insane prices this week, nor are there many must-have home underdogs.
The Steelers at Cincinnati is my first upset pick of the week. Cincinnati has gotten off to a better start, but their schedule has been a bit easier, and they haven’t dealt with the in-house drama the Steelers have.
Pittsburgh is still bordering that fine line between perseverance and dysfunction, but they proved last week with an emphatic win over the Falcons that they’re ready to rock.
Losing this game may virtually hand the Bengals the division, and I’m personally not ready to say the AFC North is Cincinnati’s to lose.
The Steelers are the more talented team on paper, they should be hungrier, and they should even carry the mental edge with six straight wins in this series. Make it seven.
Another team I’m not quite ready to give up on yet is the Colts. Andrew Luck has put up big numbers to start 2018 off, and he’s been the main reason they’ve been in just about every game they’ve played.
Indy doesn’t have a running game, and their defense isn’t elite, so Luck has to basically do it all and try to will the Colts to victories.
It’s only happened once this year, but Indy could have easily won two other games, and I think he can do enough to get the Colts past the Jets and to win number two.
The big thing here is that the Jets push a rookie passer out onto the field, and they’ve largely gone as he has this year. Sam Darnold flashes brilliance, but he also turns the ball over quite a bit.
If Luck can carry the offense, and Indy’s defense can take advantage of some opportunities, I like the value with the Colts in a must-win situation.
Part of me has fully bought back into the Patriots, while I always felt it was pretty premature to jump off of their Super Bowl bandwagon just because they lost two road games.
New England is going to be a tough out here. They’re at home, they’ve dominated in two straight wins, and the additions of Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon completely open up their offense.
Bill Belichick also happens to be a defensive mastermind, so giving him an entire week to game plan against Patrick Mahomes could spell disaster for the Chiefs.
Maybe all of that is true, but let’s admit that the Chiefs are 5-0, and it doesn’t really look like anyone can stop them. Nobody has truly figured Mahomes out yet, and he just impresses more with each passing week.
Wins over the Steelers, Chargers, Broncos (in Denver), and the Jaguars legitimize the Chiefs with ease. I see no reason to shy away from them when you’re getting value like this.
College football isn’t the genre I usually go with to find reliable upsets, but anytime you get a viable home underdog, you need to consider biting on it.
Indiana qualifies, as they’ve been decent this year and have two understandable losses – to Ohio State and Michigan State.
There’s a very capable offense in this Indiana team. They also have the benefit of playing at home, where they’re 2-1 this season and have won five of their last eight games.
Iowa is coming off of a big road win over the Minnesota Gophers, but getting two road wins in a row is never easy.
I love the value with Indiana, who is too nice of a price at home.
That does it for my look at some of my favorite upset picks in the world of sports this week.
I think you can also take a look at the CFL, NHL, and preseason NBA, while rolling with the underdog in Tuesday’s Yankees vs. Red Sox game might not be a terrible idea, either.
This is some of the best betting value on the board this week, and while it might not all hit, there is enough logic behind all of these picks to target them with confidence.