Poland vs. Italy Betting Preview – Prediction and Free Pick

By Jerry Summer
Published on October 12, 2018
Poland vs Italy UEFA

The UEFA Nations League will continue on Sunday, but there’s only one game this time around. Poland will host Italy, as both sides will be looking for a victory that will help them win the group.

As it stands, Portugal is leading the way in this Group 3 from League A, but there are plenty of games left.

I feel that this match could be interesting, as Italy is trying to rebuild after missing the World Cup, while Poland still has a decent generation of talented players that are around their peak right now.

As always, I will take a close look at the odds offered by the best bookies on the market and will share my betting pick and prediction.

Poland vs. Italy Betting Odds

Let’s start with the main betting markets on this match.

Poland to Win2.53
Draw3.05
Italy to Win2.53
Over 2.25 Goals1.99
Under 2.25 Goals1.84

You don’t see that very often, but the odds for a win of each team are exactly the same. On paper, Italy has the better players, but the home advantage and the more stable last couple of years suggest that Poland should not be underestimated.

In fact, I have the feeling that the bookies have gone a bit too far. The home side has performed better overall, including the reverse fixture that was played on September 7th.  Poland went ahead in the first half, and Italy barely got the draw, thanks to a late penalty.

I think Poland is a bit underestimated here, but let’s take a look at the other betting market, too. It’s not a big shock that the goal line is set at 2.25, as neither team is exactly famous for their prolific attack.

In fact, both Poland and Italy have some great players up front but struggle to provide them with enough chances. This has been the main issue, which is the reason why everyone expects a low-scoring match.

Let’s take a closer look at both teams before I share my final betting pick.

Poland

My overall impression for this Polish team is that it has been underperforming, to an extent, in the past couple of years.

The country has a bunch of solid players that are part of the top European leagues and a world-class striker in Robert Lewandowski. And yet, Poland struggles to find enough consistency.

Poland usually does well in qualifications and other international games, but once the finals of competitions such as the World Cup or the EUROs are reached, the nation simply doesn’t perform as expected.

I think that one of the main reasons for Poland’s inconsistency is the cautious approach implemented by the former coach Adam Nawalka.

The priority under him was for Poland to control the tempo and stay solid at the back. As a result, the midfielders rarely took enough chances to pass the ball fast enough or dribble against the opponents.

You could easily see that at the World Cup. According to the official FIFA rankings, Poland entered the tournament as the 8th best team in the world. And yet, the country was eliminated in the group stage and failed to impress.

There are signs that the new coach, Jerzy Brzeczek, will change that, as he is looking for a more direct approach from his offensive players. A closer look at the first game against Italy shows that Poland was completely different from the team that played in Russia.

The side had less than 40% of possession but had more shots on goal and chances than the opponent. Poland was focused on pushing hard on the counter and didn’t care that much about losing the ball or making a mistake.

I like the new face of the team, and I think it has a lot of potential. Especially if you consider the fact that the defense doesn’t suffer from the tactical changes implemented by the new manager.

Poland is strong at the back and doesn’t allow the opponent many opportunities to score.

It’s curious to see how far this group of players could go under the new management. The match against Italy will be a good sign of things to come.

Italy

The Italian national soccer team has rarely shined with breath-taking performances and attacking style, but the team was always one of the toughest to beat.

In fact, I would argue that Italy is one of the worst opponents you could face in a knockout tournament.

It’s safe to say that Italy is one of the true giants of soccer.

The country has managed to win the World Cup four times and also has a European Championship. This is the reason why the disappointment was so intense when the nation failed to qualify for the World Cup.

The Italian Football Association instantly took measures and appointed Roberto Mancini. The experienced coach is known for his balanced approach but has failed to achieve much since taking over.

Italy’s last game ended in a 1-1 draw against Ukraine, and Mancini expressed his disappointment after the game.

The biggest challenge in front of him would be to somehow inspire the attacking players to do better. Italy is decent at the back, as always, but the front line simply doesn’t score enough goals. The issue is especially evident in away games, as Italy failed to win any of its last five matches on the road.

Poland is not exactly the easiest opponent out there, so it won’t be shocking if this streak continues. Mancini is trying to teach his side keep the ball better and patiently find openings, but it’s not working well right now.

I expect to see more of the same against Poland, as I feel that Mancini will once again insist on keeping the ball well.

This would be a mistake, because Jerzy Brzeczek will gladly adopt a more conservative approach and try to hit Italy on the counter.

Prediction and Betting Pick

I think you know where this is going by this point. In my opinion, Poland is the slight favorite in this match, so the odds for the home side are quite solid.

If you are bold enough, you could go for the straight win for the hosts. BetOnline will give you a price of 2.53, but I think there is a better market out there. Poland +0.25 Asian handicap is available at the odds of 1.72, which seems like good value to me.

Even if the home side fails to win, the draw would result in a half-win for you. It’s the safer approach, and the one I prefer when it comes to international matches.

As for the correct score, I expect a rather tight game. I think something like 1-0 or 2-0 in favor of Poland makes the most sense, considering Italy’s away form.

PICKPoland +0.25 Asian Handicap1.72

Final Words

I’m curious to see how this game goes, as both countries have appointed a new coach that is trying to change the system.

The new style of Poland is more suited to the available players, while Italy will try to become a team that keeps the ball more. I don’t think that either of the two nations is there yet, but there are positive signs for both.

What do you expect from this match? Do you agree with me that Poland is the favorite, or do you see Italy as the team that should be able to win? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below.

Good luck!

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Poland vs. Italy Betting Preview - Prediction and Free Pick
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Poland vs. Italy Betting Preview - Prediction and Free Pick
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Poland will host Italy in a match from Group 3 in League A of the UEFA Nations League. I see if there’s an opportunity to find some betting picks.
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