Early Odds, Predictions, and Picks for Oliveira vs. Gaethje

| March 31, 2022 12:14 pm PDT
UFC 274 logo, Charles Oliviera and Justin Gaethje in center. Actions shots of both guys throwing at each other, if possible. Brazilian flag behind/over Oliveira - American flag behind/over Gaethje

The early UFC 274 odds have hit the board. Naturally, all eyes are on the betting line for Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje in the main event. 

The two highest-ranked lightweights in the promotion go head to head for the championship at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, on May 7. I have provided an early preview for betting on Oliveira vs. Gaethje to help you with your wagers.

I’ll be explaining if there is any point in taking the odds as they are and who might be the best bet for the Oliveira-Gaethje clash. If that sounds good, sit back and allow me to explain the rest.

Odds for Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje

Oliveira to Win-150
Gaethje to Win+120

I’ve taken the odds from MyBookie, which I rate as one of the best UFC betting site for the fight. 

The early Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje odds has the challenger as a slight favorite on the night. 

The Brazilian has come into himself over the past couple of years. Currently riding a ten-fight win streak, expect “Do Bronx” to be mentioned as one of the best betting tips for UFC 274. At -150, Oliveira’s odds to beat Gaethje aren’t quite doing it for me.

But I’ll give them time to stew and let you know if that has changed later.
UFC 274 logo

The UFC 274 odds for Gaethje to defeat Oliveira come in at a solid +120.

Khabib Nurmagomedov submitted the former World Series of Fighting lightweight king in his only unified title shot under the UFC banner. That defeat ended a run of four straight wins by stoppage, but Gaethje got back in the win column at UFC 268 in November by beating Michael Chandler by decision.

If you’re unsure who is the better pick for UFC 274, stick with me as I analyze both men’s respective chances.

But, if you have already made up where you stand, you can bet on Oliveira vs. Gaethje’s odds for UFC 274 by visiting MyBookie now!

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Tale of the Tape for Oliveira vs. Gaethje

Those wondering if Oliveira is better than Gaethje will find out on May 7th. Until then, we will have to size these guys up to get a clearer picture of how this fight could go.

One way of doing that is by looking over the vital stats for both guys in the following Oliveira vs. Gaethje Tale of the Tape.

Charles Oliveira Tale of the Tape Justin Gaethje
32-8-1 (NC) Record 23-3
9 KO/TKOs 19
20 Submissions 1
32 Age 33
5’10” Height 5’11”
74” Reach 70”
Do Bronx Cage Name The Highlight
Brazil Nationality United States

Making UFC 274 predictions for Oliveira vs. Gaethje based on their size and records is not enough. But knowing their backgrounds will help.

Furthermore, comparing particular physical attributes will further help your chances of nailing your top Oliveira vs. Gaethje picks. Although the volatile nature of combat sports can produce surprises, a fighter’s stylistic approach will be consistent for the most part, especially when both guys are evenly matched in most areas.

Sometimes, you have to dig a little deeper to find answers when comparing the skillsets of elite fighters such as these two. After all, the devil is often found in detail.

Charles Oliveira Preview for UFC 274

Charles Oliveira
  • Rank: Champion
  • Nationality: Brazil
  • Last Five: 5-0
  • Status: Slight Favorite 

Charles Oliveira is the most improved fighter in the UFC. Period.

At one time, Do Bronx was considered an excellent submission artist with decent striking. But one that had an awful tendency of folding under pressure. A little chinny, few could have predicted that he would embark on a three-year campaign that would culminate in a title at 155. But here we are.

These days, Oliveira has refined his critical skills and added a little extra spice to the mix to become one of the most well-rounded fighters in the lightweight division.

The all-time UFC submission wins holder (15) also holds the record for the most stoppages in the promotion at 18. Not bad for a guy who was written off as a 145-pound gatekeeper less than four years ago.

Those betting on Oliveira vs. Gaethje at UFC 274 should be enthusiastic about his chances. The Sao Paulo native is coming off a submission win over Dustin Poirier at UFC 269. Before that win, here’s how his record looked. 

  • Win Over Michael Chandler – TKO (2)
  • Win Over Tony Ferguson – Decision 
  • Win Over Kevin Lee – Submission (2)
  • Win Over Jared Gordon – KO (1)
  • Win Over Nik Lentz – TKO (1)

Impressive and consistent, Charles Oliveira has developed a true habit of winning. 

Although bookmakers have already priced up fight odds between Oliveira vs. Makhachev, the Brazilian would be foolish to be focusing on anything other than Gaethje. And a guy as cerebral and experienced as “Charlie Olives” is the one person on planet earth with the most to lose from such folly.

The top betting apps might have Oliveira as a slight favorite. But the American style could be tough for him to break down. 

UFC 274 Preview of Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje
  • Rank: #1 Lightweight Contender
  • Nationality: USA
  • Last Five: 4-1
  • Status: Moderate Underdog

If you’re betting on the Oliveira vs. Gaethje fight, I won’t bat an eyelid if you said you were torn on who to back. 

This is an excellent matchup between a submission master with slick striking skills against a brutal power puncher with superb wrestling. Both guys have proven their mettle in the promotion, and this is the right matchup to make as things stand. 

Gaethje arrived in the UFC in 2016 with a record of 17 wins and zero losses. He was a big hitter with NCAA All-American wrestling credentials; his style was super effective. That was until he was stopped by former champion Eddie Alvarez and then Dustin Poirier in back-to-back scraps.

The Arizona-native won his next three fights before landing a shot against Tony Ferguson for the interim strap at lightweight. The illness of Khabib Nurmagomedov’s father, who later passed away, was cited as the reason for the former champion’s withdrawal.

Looking to seize the unexpected opportunity, Gaethje beat Ferguson from pillar to post, stunning the wider UFC fanbase. That fight proved the former WSOF champion’s striking to be on another level; it also marked the first time Ferguson had been stopped in his career.

I can understand why if you’re licking your lips at the odds for Gaethje to beat Oliveira. The guy will be adamant about taking down and a huge threat on the feet.

Although we have seen vast improvements from Oliveira, I’m still not completely sold on his chin. He was rocked by Michael Chandler in their fight at UFC 262 and came close to being stopped by Dustin Poirier in December.

Granted, Oliveira survived both onslaughts to earn stoppage victories. But a pressure-fighting wrestler with a brutal right hand could be enough to crack the code here.

Early Predictions for Oliveira vs. Gaethje

It’s time to make some initial Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje predictions. But before I get stuck into these predictions, it’s worth noting that I am writing this more than six weeks out from the fight.

Injuries, struggles with weight or other unforeseen circumstances could change my mind on who wins the Oliveira vs. Gaethje fight at UFC 274 from now until May 7.

Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje
Top Tip
If you want to learn the importance the factors above could have on this fight, our expert MMA betting strategies will explain them in more detail.

So, back to my UFC 274 predictions for Oliveira vs. Gaethje. 

Simply put, this is a 50/50 fight that could be among the best matchups in any division in the promotion. Although there is a lot more to it than smart, striking submission artist vs. gnarly wrestler with a right hand, you could simplify Oliveira and Gaethje’s key strengths as those.

The key to predicting the Oliveira vs. Gaethje fight lies in who can persuade the other to fight the way they want. For example, if the champ can tire his opponent out and test his submission defense, the belt could be back to Brazil.

Will Gaethje Feel the Pressure?

However, if Oliveira is caught by a perfectly timed right hand from Gaethje, the fight could completely bend in the challenger’s favor. I’d expect the Arizona native, in front of his home state fans, to be pumped for this one and come out of the gate like a bull.

With that said, the pressure of performing in front of a local crowd might be too much for Gaethje. I’m interested to see if my predictions for Oliveira vs. Gaethje being absolute chaos from the get-go come true. But I will also be very keen to see how the former NCAA-Division I standout handles performing in front of his people.

The mental battle is arguably the most important factor in this bout. If Gaethje cannot find Oliveira’s chin early, the weight on his shoulders will begin to show. Oliveira, who knows he has the better tool kit, will grow in stature with every passing minute.

Although these are early betting picks for Oliveira vs. Gaethje, I cannot see them changing much unless something seriously looks wrong in the Brazilian’s preparations for the fight. 

I’m going to go for Oliveira to win by submission in the second round.

Live Betting on Oliveira vs. Gaethje

Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona

That’s my early preview for betting on Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje. 

The odds for Oliveira look good enough for me, having addressed the key factors that could determine the fight. I mentioned above how I was tilting toward the American, which should prove the importance of doing your homework before placing your wagers.


Speaking of odds and wagers, it might be good to consider live betting on Oliveira vs. Gaethje.

Considering the first few minutes of the fight should show who holds the aces in a very close matchup, I’d recommend considering this option. That applies whether you are betting early on the UFC 274 headliner or waiting until the first bell rings.

You can find my top recommended betting apps for UFC fights below!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam



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